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Azizal
It's really silly that left handed pitchers are just flat out worse than right handed, (the problem is more pronounced in system 3 leagues, but is true in all systems).
fyi, I've played in 4 long term leagues, totaling over 100 seasons and over 2 years of real time. I mention that just in case someone thinks it's just limited experience that leads me to make this claim. Of course, I suspect any experienced sim gamer has noticed the same thing.
Left Handed Pitchers
July 20, 2010 at 08:44PM View BBCode
I'm sure I'm not the first to mention this, but :It's really silly that left handed pitchers are just flat out worse than right handed, (the problem is more pronounced in system 3 leagues, but is true in all systems).
fyi, I've played in 4 long term leagues, totaling over 100 seasons and over 2 years of real time. I mention that just in case someone thinks it's just limited experience that leads me to make this claim. Of course, I suspect any experienced sim gamer has noticed the same thing.
Hamilton2
[url=http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AuhkRXDJBsYNdEhmTFlfQWNBNHhGWFNYeFl2c3h0QWc&hl=en&output=html]Here is a spreadsheet[/url] showing the team splits vs. LHP and RHP in the system 3 Sandy Amoros League, which just completed its NLCS today.
As you can see, LHP's were slightly worse than RHP's, allowing a .733 OPS against compared with a .717 OPS against for righties.
However, those raw numbers don't tell the whole story. The NL Cy Young winner was a LHP, [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=6220432]Omar Bradley[/url] and he was absolutely ridiculous this season with a 1.18 WHIP and 2.75 ERA in 265 1/3 innings.
Among the league's top all-star vote getters, 5 out of the top 20 NL SP's and 5 out of the top 20 AL SP's were Left-Handed. This means that 25% of the league's best 40 pitchers were southpaws. Considering that there are only 84 SP's in the whole league who even posted any stats this season, it is significant to me that the % of lefties in the top half of the data is higher than the national average of left-handed people (about 10%) and exactly in line with MLB (about 25%).
So, what we see is that individual LHP's do, in fact, post very good numbers in simD, and that the group as a whole puts up numbers which are comparable to their RHP-peers.
The next question is, is this out of line with MLB data? (I looked on both MLB.com and Baseballprospectus.com and was unable to generate a report comparing team stats vs. LHP with team stats vs. RHP.)
July 20, 2010 at 09:35PM View BBCode
It would be totally awesome if you could provide some statistical evidence to back up your claim.[url=http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AuhkRXDJBsYNdEhmTFlfQWNBNHhGWFNYeFl2c3h0QWc&hl=en&output=html]Here is a spreadsheet[/url] showing the team splits vs. LHP and RHP in the system 3 Sandy Amoros League, which just completed its NLCS today.
As you can see, LHP's were slightly worse than RHP's, allowing a .733 OPS against compared with a .717 OPS against for righties.
However, those raw numbers don't tell the whole story. The NL Cy Young winner was a LHP, [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=6220432]Omar Bradley[/url] and he was absolutely ridiculous this season with a 1.18 WHIP and 2.75 ERA in 265 1/3 innings.
Among the league's top all-star vote getters, 5 out of the top 20 NL SP's and 5 out of the top 20 AL SP's were Left-Handed. This means that 25% of the league's best 40 pitchers were southpaws. Considering that there are only 84 SP's in the whole league who even posted any stats this season, it is significant to me that the % of lefties in the top half of the data is higher than the national average of left-handed people (about 10%) and exactly in line with MLB (about 25%).
So, what we see is that individual LHP's do, in fact, post very good numbers in simD, and that the group as a whole puts up numbers which are comparable to their RHP-peers.
The next question is, is this out of line with MLB data? (I looked on both MLB.com and Baseballprospectus.com and was unable to generate a report comparing team stats vs. LHP with team stats vs. RHP.)
Azizal
Given the difficulty in proving this statistically, which we are both aware of, it's much easier to use anecdotal evidence. This is less convincing, but it is essentially all we have to go on. I am aware of the difficulty in finding a good way to look at real life stats.
What we really need, is a comparison of Lefty pitchers vs. Lefty Hitters.. sim vs irl. Don't know how to get that.
My anecdotal evidence is based on the fact that it is extremely easy in s3 to build a lefty killing lineup. With 15 players getting full cp's, every single draftee who hits lefties well gets full development. But you know all this.
It's possible I've exaggerated this claim for s2, but I don't think so.
As to the examples from your league.
There is a flaw in using all star vote getters. We both know that wins are weighted heavily, and that doesn't speak to quality as much as ERA/WHIP, etc. (WHIP is a hugely flawed stat in sim anyway, as walks are not done realistically at all). You would need to compare him to other B/A+ starters who are righty. Even that would be flawed, however, as the defense behind these respective pitchers is fairly significant. Well, maybe not the outfield defense, lol. ;)
Now, here's a shot at using real data from MLB.. Since it's hard to do a league wide search, let's look at the top guys.
Taking the top qualified SP ERA leaders from 2009:
Of the top 40, 13 are lefties. Ok, no biggie, but over 25%
Of the top 20, *8* are lefties. That may be significant.
Of the top 10, 2 are lefties.
In 2008:
Of the top 40, 10 are lefties. Exactly 25%, nice.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties. Similar, and essentially the same guys.
Of the top 10, 4 are lefties.
In 2000:
Of the top 40, 15 are lefties. Pretty slanted towards lefties.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties.
Of the top 10, *5* are lefties.
So it's not proof, as this is not a large sample size, but it does seem not unlikely that lefties make up a higher % of the top group than the 25% represented throughout baseball.
I'd like to look at relievers too, but I feel the data is tainted. Relievers get used much different irl vs sim. Managers go with matchups (far beyond lefty vs. righty in many cases).
[Edited on 7-20-2010 by Azizal]
July 20, 2010 at 10:23PM View BBCode
As you say yourself, "the numbers fail to tell the whole story"Given the difficulty in proving this statistically, which we are both aware of, it's much easier to use anecdotal evidence. This is less convincing, but it is essentially all we have to go on. I am aware of the difficulty in finding a good way to look at real life stats.
What we really need, is a comparison of Lefty pitchers vs. Lefty Hitters.. sim vs irl. Don't know how to get that.
My anecdotal evidence is based on the fact that it is extremely easy in s3 to build a lefty killing lineup. With 15 players getting full cp's, every single draftee who hits lefties well gets full development. But you know all this.
It's possible I've exaggerated this claim for s2, but I don't think so.
As to the examples from your league.
There is a flaw in using all star vote getters. We both know that wins are weighted heavily, and that doesn't speak to quality as much as ERA/WHIP, etc. (WHIP is a hugely flawed stat in sim anyway, as walks are not done realistically at all). You would need to compare him to other B/A+ starters who are righty. Even that would be flawed, however, as the defense behind these respective pitchers is fairly significant. Well, maybe not the outfield defense, lol. ;)
Now, here's a shot at using real data from MLB.. Since it's hard to do a league wide search, let's look at the top guys.
Taking the top qualified SP ERA leaders from 2009:
Of the top 40, 13 are lefties. Ok, no biggie, but over 25%
Of the top 20, *8* are lefties. That may be significant.
Of the top 10, 2 are lefties.
In 2008:
Of the top 40, 10 are lefties. Exactly 25%, nice.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties. Similar, and essentially the same guys.
Of the top 10, 4 are lefties.
In 2000:
Of the top 40, 15 are lefties. Pretty slanted towards lefties.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties.
Of the top 10, *5* are lefties.
So it's not proof, as this is not a large sample size, but it does seem not unlikely that lefties make up a higher % of the top group than the 25% represented throughout baseball.
I'd like to look at relievers too, but I feel the data is tainted. Relievers get used much different irl vs sim. Managers go with matchups (far beyond lefty vs. righty in many cases).
[Edited on 7-20-2010 by Azizal]
Hamilton2
July 20, 2010 at 11:23PM View BBCode
That's some really neat data, I'm looking forward to the bit about hitters. Thanks!
Hamilton2
July 21, 2010 at 12:00AM View BBCode
Perhaps Right handed batters are created with too much of a slant towards being anti-lefty dominant. That is, we have too many platoon-type guys who are right handed and the results are that the left handed pitchers get killed because of too much league-wide depth. I guess that if we just reduced the initial ratings of most RH hitters vs. LHP that you would get the result you are looking for here.
Azizal
irl, lefty hitters mash righty pitchers not just because of the natural advantage of visibility, but because they have had waaaay more practice vs. RHP in their life. It also has a lot to do with how the pitches break. A righty curveball breaks toward the strike zone vs a lefty batter, while it breaks away from a right handed batters strike zone.
Righty hitters have the same corresponding visibility advantage and nature of breaking pitches vs lefty pitchers, but far less experience vs. them because they get fewer reps vs. LHP.
The differences go beyond that. It may seem counterintuitive, but some of the same pitches require different grips when thrown with the left hand.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/96201-different-baseball-pitching-grips-left/
That article, and some of the associated links on the right sidebar, explains it better.
July 21, 2010 at 12:19AM View BBCode
That's pretty much exactly it.irl, lefty hitters mash righty pitchers not just because of the natural advantage of visibility, but because they have had waaaay more practice vs. RHP in their life. It also has a lot to do with how the pitches break. A righty curveball breaks toward the strike zone vs a lefty batter, while it breaks away from a right handed batters strike zone.
Righty hitters have the same corresponding visibility advantage and nature of breaking pitches vs lefty pitchers, but far less experience vs. them because they get fewer reps vs. LHP.
The differences go beyond that. It may seem counterintuitive, but some of the same pitches require different grips when thrown with the left hand.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/96201-different-baseball-pitching-grips-left/
That article, and some of the associated links on the right sidebar, explains it better.
WillyD
My lefties are currently 1,2,4 in all-star voting and 1,3,5 in the CYA
[Edited on 7-21-2010 by WillyD]
July 21, 2010 at 12:49AM View BBCode
I have to disagree with your(Azizal's) original point. I've done really well with lefties in my rotation. Many owners feel as you do and avoid acquiring or drafting them. However, a lot of top teams tend to have very good lineups vs righties, and having a pair of nasty lefties can be the difference sometimes between a playoff team and a championship team. Check out [url= http://www.simdynasty.com/rosterp.jsp?teamid=56109]this[/url] current 1st place rotationMy lefties are currently 1,2,4 in all-star voting and 1,3,5 in the CYA
[Edited on 7-21-2010 by WillyD]
Azizal
I fully agree that you can take advantage of a team's weakness vs lefties when such a weakness exists. I have done so many times myself. In fact, I've done very dramatic things like starting my closer or setup man in a playoff series to create better matchups (with success, too). What happens is by starting a lefty reliever, you get their lefty lineup in the game, but then the 4th inning comes along and you bring in a string of righty relievers which gives you a nice edge for the majority of the game.
Let me put it another way:
which is easier, building a lineup that crushes righties, or one that crushes lefties?
I say it is far easier to create a lefty crushing lineup. This should be obvious as clearly, hitters who crush righties are more sought after. Just because it doesn't happen often in many leagues, speaks more to this strategy not being commonly employed vs. how easy it is to do.
July 21, 2010 at 01:05AM View BBCode
WillyD: that does not address my point. Showing me examples of successful lefties is not proof of anything. I say this knowing full well I have not exactly proved my point either.I fully agree that you can take advantage of a team's weakness vs lefties when such a weakness exists. I have done so many times myself. In fact, I've done very dramatic things like starting my closer or setup man in a playoff series to create better matchups (with success, too). What happens is by starting a lefty reliever, you get their lefty lineup in the game, but then the 4th inning comes along and you bring in a string of righty relievers which gives you a nice edge for the majority of the game.
Let me put it another way:
which is easier, building a lineup that crushes righties, or one that crushes lefties?
I say it is far easier to create a lefty crushing lineup. This should be obvious as clearly, hitters who crush righties are more sought after. Just because it doesn't happen often in many leagues, speaks more to this strategy not being commonly employed vs. how easy it is to do.
WillyD
I agree with you on the lineup thing. If the lefty gets hit hard early or runs out of gas because of low endurance, you can bring in the righties for the middle of the game. I personally like to then have the lefty closer come in after he pinch hits with his left handed hitters. A lot of times he'll be out of lefty mashers.
There are a lot of prospects in non system 3 leagues that don't get fully developed because they are weaker vs righties. Some of these guys turn into good, but not great, hitters vs lefties. So I tend to see a lot hitters with low B contact & low to mid A+ power vs lefties with average speed and/or bad defense that come in to play vs lefties. The lineup will look solid 1-8, but only consistently effective vs. average lefty pitchers. They just don't cut it vs. top starters and closers that throw left-handed.
July 21, 2010 at 03:20AM View BBCode
I place little to no value on the handedness of pitchers. A top pitcher is a top pitcher.I agree with you on the lineup thing. If the lefty gets hit hard early or runs out of gas because of low endurance, you can bring in the righties for the middle of the game. I personally like to then have the lefty closer come in after he pinch hits with his left handed hitters. A lot of times he'll be out of lefty mashers.
There are a lot of prospects in non system 3 leagues that don't get fully developed because they are weaker vs righties. Some of these guys turn into good, but not great, hitters vs lefties. So I tend to see a lot hitters with low B contact & low to mid A+ power vs lefties with average speed and/or bad defense that come in to play vs lefties. The lineup will look solid 1-8, but only consistently effective vs. average lefty pitchers. They just don't cut it vs. top starters and closers that throw left-handed.
Azizal
In real life, the lefty would be taken over the righty 100% of the time, given all else being equal (which, to be fair, it never is so in real life.. they don't have numbers/letter grades to look at like we do). But my point stands, that in real life, lefties have more value.
Even if I'm wrong, and there is little difference between the two in Sim, it's still not a reflection of reality where the lefties are superior.
July 21, 2010 at 04:38AM View BBCode
Willy, I agree that a top pitcher is a top pitcher. But if there are two essentially identical pitchers in a draft, the righty is my choice every time. So I'd call it a tiebreaker.In real life, the lefty would be taken over the righty 100% of the time, given all else being equal (which, to be fair, it never is so in real life.. they don't have numbers/letter grades to look at like we do). But my point stands, that in real life, lefties have more value.
Even if I'm wrong, and there is little difference between the two in Sim, it's still not a reflection of reality where the lefties are superior.
thatrogue
July 25, 2010 at 09:53AM View BBCode
Originally posted by AzizalWhy did you use 2009, 2008 and 2000? That is an odd cross-section. Why not use the last three season, or, better yet, information from the entire decade?
As you say yourself, "the numbers fail to tell the whole story"
Given the difficulty in proving this statistically, which we are both aware of, it's much easier to use anecdotal evidence. This is less convincing, but it is essentially all we have to go on. I am aware of the difficulty in finding a good way to look at real life stats.
What we really need, is a comparison of Lefty pitchers vs. Lefty Hitters.. sim vs irl. Don't know how to get that.
My anecdotal evidence is based on the fact that it is extremely easy in s3 to build a lefty killing lineup. With 15 players getting full cp's, every single draftee who hits lefties well gets full development. But you know all this.
It's possible I've exaggerated this claim for s2, but I don't think so.
As to the examples from your league.
There is a flaw in using all star vote getters. We both know that wins are weighted heavily, and that doesn't speak to quality as much as ERA/WHIP, etc. (WHIP is a hugely flawed stat in sim anyway, as walks are not done realistically at all). You would need to compare him to other B/A+ starters who are righty. Even that would be flawed, however, as the defense behind these respective pitchers is fairly significant. Well, maybe not the outfield defense, lol. ;)
Now, here's a shot at using real data from MLB.. Since it's hard to do a league wide search, let's look at the top guys.
Taking the top qualified SP ERA leaders from 2009:
Of the top 40, 13 are lefties. Ok, no biggie, but over 25%
Of the top 20, *8* are lefties. That may be significant.
Of the top 10, 2 are lefties.
In 2008:
Of the top 40, 10 are lefties. Exactly 25%, nice.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties. Similar, and essentially the same guys.
Of the top 10, 4 are lefties.
In 2000:
Of the top 40, 15 are lefties. Pretty slanted towards lefties.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties.
Of the top 10, *5* are lefties.
So it's not proof, as this is not a large sample size, but it does seem not unlikely that lefties make up a higher % of the top group than the 25% represented throughout baseball.
I'd like to look at relievers too, but I feel the data is tainted. Relievers get used much different irl vs sim. Managers go with matchups (far beyond lefty vs. righty in many cases).
[Edited on 7-20-2010 by Azizal]
tm4559
(because system 3 is the dumb. this is just the latest manifestation of the dumb that it is).
July 25, 2010 at 03:05PM View BBCode
this wasn't a problem, all these left killing hitters before system 3.(because system 3 is the dumb. this is just the latest manifestation of the dumb that it is).
tm4559
(((you play in numbers leagues. i mean, you should be able to show us right handed and left handed pitchers that pitched through their peaks with almost identical ratings, and if your theory is true, then those left handed pitchers should be CLEARLY worse than their right handed counterparts. if you showed that, i apoligize. did you show it?)))
July 25, 2010 at 03:14PM View BBCode
((you haven't, really, yet, however, proved that teams in system 3 leagues HAVE these left killing lineups. just a lot of talk about it, but no proof. am i right?))(((you play in numbers leagues. i mean, you should be able to show us right handed and left handed pitchers that pitched through their peaks with almost identical ratings, and if your theory is true, then those left handed pitchers should be CLEARLY worse than their right handed counterparts. if you showed that, i apoligize. did you show it?)))
tm4559
it is the same reason natural right handed switch hitters carry better rate, usally, from the left side than the right. most of the people in the world are right handed, and most pitchers are right handed. switch hitters do worse against the left handers because they don't see it as much. that is the reason.
we can't account for that in sim. are there too many (one sided) right handed hitters, given system 3, that are too highly rated against left handed pitchers? sure, there might be. that is a problem with system 3.)))
July 25, 2010 at 05:59PM View BBCode
(((in real life, of course, you will find lefthanded pitchers seeming stronger than the simulated left handed pitchers. the reason for this is absolutely obvious.it is the same reason natural right handed switch hitters carry better rate, usally, from the left side than the right. most of the people in the world are right handed, and most pitchers are right handed. switch hitters do worse against the left handers because they don't see it as much. that is the reason.
we can't account for that in sim. are there too many (one sided) right handed hitters, given system 3, that are too highly rated against left handed pitchers? sure, there might be. that is a problem with system 3.)))
Azizal
Because the last 3 seasons would essentially be all the same pitchers. I realized this after having already done 2008 and 2009. Had I thought of that earlier, I would've done 2000, 2005 and 2009. I was using ESPN, and they don't have stats pre-2000.
Yes, I could've done the whole decade but I didn't feel like it.
If you are suggesting I picked certain seasons just to prove my point, you are mistaken.
July 25, 2010 at 08:45PM View BBCode
Originally posted by thatrogue
Originally posted by AzizalWhy did you use 2009, 2008 and 2000? That is an odd cross-section. Why not use the last three season, or, better yet, information from the entire decade?
As you say yourself, "the numbers fail to tell the whole story"
Given the difficulty in proving this statistically, which we are both aware of, it's much easier to use anecdotal evidence. This is less convincing, but it is essentially all we have to go on. I am aware of the difficulty in finding a good way to look at real life stats.
What we really need, is a comparison of Lefty pitchers vs. Lefty Hitters.. sim vs irl. Don't know how to get that.
My anecdotal evidence is based on the fact that it is extremely easy in s3 to build a lefty killing lineup. With 15 players getting full cp's, every single draftee who hits lefties well gets full development. But you know all this.
It's possible I've exaggerated this claim for s2, but I don't think so.
As to the examples from your league.
There is a flaw in using all star vote getters. We both know that wins are weighted heavily, and that doesn't speak to quality as much as ERA/WHIP, etc. (WHIP is a hugely flawed stat in sim anyway, as walks are not done realistically at all). You would need to compare him to other B/A+ starters who are righty. Even that would be flawed, however, as the defense behind these respective pitchers is fairly significant. Well, maybe not the outfield defense, lol. ;)
Now, here's a shot at using real data from MLB.. Since it's hard to do a league wide search, let's look at the top guys.
Taking the top qualified SP ERA leaders from 2009:
Of the top 40, 13 are lefties. Ok, no biggie, but over 25%
Of the top 20, *8* are lefties. That may be significant.
Of the top 10, 2 are lefties.
In 2008:
Of the top 40, 10 are lefties. Exactly 25%, nice.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties. Similar, and essentially the same guys.
Of the top 10, 4 are lefties.
In 2000:
Of the top 40, 15 are lefties. Pretty slanted towards lefties.
Of the top 20, 7 are lefties.
Of the top 10, *5* are lefties.
So it's not proof, as this is not a large sample size, but it does seem not unlikely that lefties make up a higher % of the top group than the 25% represented throughout baseball.
I'd like to look at relievers too, but I feel the data is tainted. Relievers get used much different irl vs sim. Managers go with matchups (far beyond lefty vs. righty in many cases).
[Edited on 7-20-2010 by Azizal]
Because the last 3 seasons would essentially be all the same pitchers. I realized this after having already done 2008 and 2009. Had I thought of that earlier, I would've done 2000, 2005 and 2009. I was using ESPN, and they don't have stats pre-2000.
Yes, I could've done the whole decade but I didn't feel like it.
If you are suggesting I picked certain seasons just to prove my point, you are mistaken.
Azizal
You don't need someone to show it to you, just browse the s3 leagues yourself and look at "league lineups" vs lefties. Start with the David Ortiz league, (my s3 league) if you want.
Here's the link, hopefully it works: http://simdynasty.com/league_lineups.jsp?leagueid=425&RL=L
Notice how even the worst teams have nasty lineups vs. left. The team with the worst record (Cin) only has 3 guys with under A- speed, 2 guys with under A- power and one guy with under A- contact. (and that's no fluke, that team finished last in the previous season)
Overall, 15 guys are starting who have 100 PvL vs 13 who have 100 PvR.
How about 100 contact? Leaguewide for DOL, 10 starters have 100 CvR vs. 13 who have 100 CvL. So in both cases there are more lefties with 100 than Righties. I suppose I could look at all guys with A+ and it might look different, but probably not.
One should realize that guys who are *only good vs. lefties* (as opposed to good vs. both or good vs righties only) do not get full major league development, so this is even more telling.
fyi, I was the commish of CJL, a s3 league that ran for 28 seasons. I started to suspect the trend back then.
Now, here's another small piece of evidence to add to the pile. Take two nearly identical pitchers who pitched in the same division with many overlapping seasons.
[url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6160892]Onion Torch[/url]
[url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6978375]Walt Harrist[/url]
First, Onion Torch peaked at 61/100. Harrist is 64/100. Looking *only* at the seasons after or near their peak stats:
OT: 3.34, 3.28, 2.53, 2.82, (1963) 3.27, 3.62, 2.78, 2.70
WH: (1963) 3.16, 3.47, 3.66, 2.86, 3.72
The year OT had a 3.27 is the same year WH had a 3.16 (1963). For the four overlapping years, OT was noticeably better, despite 3 less velocity. OT also has *four* seasons that WH has *never matched*. If he has 3 more vel, and is a lefty, he should be doing better than OT.
If you look at WHIP, the distinction remains significant. OT wins the stats contest handily, and he is a righty, while Harrist is a lefty.
The caveat here is that CHA was the best team for most of this time, so Harrist had to face the league's best offense a few times a year while OT did not. However, that is probably only 3-4 starts a year. There are also hidden factors like defense and management settings. Let it not be said I'm unaware of the possible reasons why my comparison could be somewhat misleading.
That said, these things cannot be easily dismissed.
[Edited on 7-25-2010 by Azizal]
July 25, 2010 at 09:28PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
((you haven't, really, yet, however, proved that teams in system 3 leagues HAVE these left killing lineups. just a lot of talk about it, but no proof. am i right?))
(((you play in numbers leagues. i mean, you should be able to show us right handed and left handed pitchers that pitched through their peaks with almost identical ratings, and if your theory is true, then those left handed pitchers should be CLEARLY worse than their right handed counterparts. if you showed that, i apoligize. did you show it?)))
You don't need someone to show it to you, just browse the s3 leagues yourself and look at "league lineups" vs lefties. Start with the David Ortiz league, (my s3 league) if you want.
Here's the link, hopefully it works: http://simdynasty.com/league_lineups.jsp?leagueid=425&RL=L
Notice how even the worst teams have nasty lineups vs. left. The team with the worst record (Cin) only has 3 guys with under A- speed, 2 guys with under A- power and one guy with under A- contact. (and that's no fluke, that team finished last in the previous season)
Overall, 15 guys are starting who have 100 PvL vs 13 who have 100 PvR.
How about 100 contact? Leaguewide for DOL, 10 starters have 100 CvR vs. 13 who have 100 CvL. So in both cases there are more lefties with 100 than Righties. I suppose I could look at all guys with A+ and it might look different, but probably not.
One should realize that guys who are *only good vs. lefties* (as opposed to good vs. both or good vs righties only) do not get full major league development, so this is even more telling.
fyi, I was the commish of CJL, a s3 league that ran for 28 seasons. I started to suspect the trend back then.
Now, here's another small piece of evidence to add to the pile. Take two nearly identical pitchers who pitched in the same division with many overlapping seasons.
[url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6160892]Onion Torch[/url]
[url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6978375]Walt Harrist[/url]
First, Onion Torch peaked at 61/100. Harrist is 64/100. Looking *only* at the seasons after or near their peak stats:
OT: 3.34, 3.28, 2.53, 2.82, (1963) 3.27, 3.62, 2.78, 2.70
WH: (1963) 3.16, 3.47, 3.66, 2.86, 3.72
The year OT had a 3.27 is the same year WH had a 3.16 (1963). For the four overlapping years, OT was noticeably better, despite 3 less velocity. OT also has *four* seasons that WH has *never matched*. If he has 3 more vel, and is a lefty, he should be doing better than OT.
If you look at WHIP, the distinction remains significant. OT wins the stats contest handily, and he is a righty, while Harrist is a lefty.
The caveat here is that CHA was the best team for most of this time, so Harrist had to face the league's best offense a few times a year while OT did not. However, that is probably only 3-4 starts a year. There are also hidden factors like defense and management settings. Let it not be said I'm unaware of the possible reasons why my comparison could be somewhat misleading.
That said, these things cannot be easily dismissed.
[Edited on 7-25-2010 by Azizal]
tm4559
go to your numbers leagues. find the groups of right handed and lefthanded pitchers that are otherwise identical (their ratings are the same) through the peak. and let us see those stats.
(they might even bear out what you say, i don't know.)
July 25, 2010 at 09:34PM View formatted
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i got no interest in browsing those lineups, or in looking at what any hitter or pitcher does in a selected season.
go to your numbers leagues. find the groups of right handed and lefthanded pitchers that are otherwise identical (their ratings are the same) through the peak. and let us see those stats.
(they might even bear out what you say, i don't know.)
tm4559
July 25, 2010 at 09:38PM View BBCode
i look there btw. and the right hander doesn't look very much better to me. where is it clearly superior, year in and year out? during the peak? where?
Azizal
I just did that. It wasn't one season, it was several.. And they overlap, AND they are in the same division. I'm working on more now.
July 25, 2010 at 09:38PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
i got no interest in browsing those lineups, or in looking at what any hitter or pitcher does in a selected season.
go to your numbers leagues. find the groups of right handed and lefthanded pitchers that are otherwise identical (their ratings are the same) through the peak. and let us see those stats.
(they might even bear out what you say, i don't know.)
I just did that. It wasn't one season, it was several.. And they overlap, AND they are in the same division. I'm working on more now.
tm4559
(also, if you are and your friends with all this money to bet on fake baseball leave simd, then what are you going to bet it on? fake football, soccer, what?)
(and you need to more than two pitchers. the expericence there might be absolutely typical for all of them. you should be able to show more than two. and not just the control heavy ones. the velocity heavy ones too. showing two cards never proves anything. )
July 25, 2010 at 09:41PM View BBCode
system 3. didn't you almost admit this was a system 3 problem?(also, if you are and your friends with all this money to bet on fake baseball leave simd, then what are you going to bet it on? fake football, soccer, what?)
(and you need to more than two pitchers. the expericence there might be absolutely typical for all of them. you should be able to show more than two. and not just the control heavy ones. the velocity heavy ones too. showing two cards never proves anything. )
Azizal
I explained this in my post. The years I focused on were peak seasons for both of them. During the 4 overlapping years, OT was better. A lefty with better attributes than a righty should have superior output.
*He doesn't have to be more than a little better to help prove my point.* Harrist has superior attributes but worse ERA/WHIP over a reasonable sample size.
Remember that my point is that lefties should be superior, not equal. Lefty Harrist couldn't match a worse righty. That's meaningful and speaks to, without proving, my point.
I notice you have no comment on the difference in guys with maxed out contact/power.
July 25, 2010 at 09:45PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
i look there btw. and the right hander doesn't look very much better to me. where is it clearly superior, year in and year out? during the peak? where?
I explained this in my post. The years I focused on were peak seasons for both of them. During the 4 overlapping years, OT was better. A lefty with better attributes than a righty should have superior output.
*He doesn't have to be more than a little better to help prove my point.* Harrist has superior attributes but worse ERA/WHIP over a reasonable sample size.
Remember that my point is that lefties should be superior, not equal. Lefty Harrist couldn't match a worse righty. That's meaningful and speaks to, without proving, my point.
I notice you have no comment on the difference in guys with maxed out contact/power.
Azizal
Sigh, you're being difficult and it's not helping. You're asking for too much too quickly. It takes time to come up with these stats. I never claimed this was proof, just that it adds to the case I am mounting. I'm well aware that 2 cards proves very little, if anything. I'd rather do a series of posts over time than make one gigantic post with dozens of examples crammed into one long one. I'll find some examples of velocity pitchers later, possibly tonight. For the next few hours I will let this rest as I have other things to do.
What my friends and I do with our money has no bearing on this at all. If you must know, I won't be betting it on anything. The money was an anti-tanking measure, not a pro-gambling measure. You're revealing yourself to be antagonistic and petty. Can we discuss this like adults?
July 25, 2010 at 09:53PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
system 3. didn't you almost admit this was a system 3 problem?
(also, if you are and your friends with all this money to bet on fake baseball leave simd, then what are you going to bet it on? fake football, soccer, what?)
(and you need to more than two pitchers. the expericence there might be absolutely typical for all of them. you should be able to show more than two. and not just the control heavy ones. the velocity heavy ones too. showing two cards never proves anything. )
Sigh, you're being difficult and it's not helping. You're asking for too much too quickly. It takes time to come up with these stats. I never claimed this was proof, just that it adds to the case I am mounting. I'm well aware that 2 cards proves very little, if anything. I'd rather do a series of posts over time than make one gigantic post with dozens of examples crammed into one long one. I'll find some examples of velocity pitchers later, possibly tonight. For the next few hours I will let this rest as I have other things to do.
What my friends and I do with our money has no bearing on this at all. If you must know, I won't be betting it on anything. The money was an anti-tanking measure, not a pro-gambling measure. You're revealing yourself to be antagonistic and petty. Can we discuss this like adults?
Hamilton2
The comparison of Onion to Lefty on the peak years is interesting. I do not think that it is 100% conclusive, as you yourself admit, but it certainly speaks to the point.
What do you make of these two pitchers, then:
Left-handed - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=6220432]Omar Bradley[/url]
Right-handed - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6220422]Earl Babbit[/url]
Both pitchers pitched in the NL of a system 3 league from 1950 to 1962. (We used a cloned draft, so the league already had fully matured players at 1950. The NL was the more balanced/competitive of the two leagues for the first decade and has been very comparable to other mature system 3 leagues in all points.)
The lefty above posted a career 1.20/3.36 line while winning two Cy Young awards and 7 all-star appearances; while the righty posted a 1.15/3.26 line with 6 all-star appearances.
At the time of the initial draft, the right hander was a B/A+ (62/98) and he topped out at B+/A+ (68/100). The lefty was a C+/A+ at the initial draft, with 99 control; he topped out at B/A+ (64/100).
From 1956-60, the two pitched for the same franchise and posted these numbers:
1.27/3.94 vs. 1.13/2.83
1.16/3.14 vs. 1.13/3.01
1.32/3.82 vs. 1.04/3.04
1.02/2.70 vs. 1.08/2.90
1.09/2.89 vs. 1.01/2.68
There are two seasons there, out of 5, where the right-handed (and higher rated) pitcher actually posts significantly better numbers.
In the playoffs, we see again very, very similar stats:
The right handed pitcher has a 1.02/2.86 line; while the southpaw has a 1.07/3.08 line (but, there is one season there with the lefty that he was still a C+/A+ in '51, where he was just turn-away awful, for the other seasons, he is as good or better ((probably better)) than the RHP).
So, I'm seeing that there are some other examples which would go into the evidence pile on the other side of this argument.
July 25, 2010 at 10:10PM View BBCode
There were a total of 5 more players with a maxed stat vs. LHP than vs. RHP. 5. Out of 16 x 8 = 128 players. Wow. (Do you see how insignificant that is?)The comparison of Onion to Lefty on the peak years is interesting. I do not think that it is 100% conclusive, as you yourself admit, but it certainly speaks to the point.
What do you make of these two pitchers, then:
Left-handed - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=6220432]Omar Bradley[/url]
Right-handed - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=6220422]Earl Babbit[/url]
Both pitchers pitched in the NL of a system 3 league from 1950 to 1962. (We used a cloned draft, so the league already had fully matured players at 1950. The NL was the more balanced/competitive of the two leagues for the first decade and has been very comparable to other mature system 3 leagues in all points.)
The lefty above posted a career 1.20/3.36 line while winning two Cy Young awards and 7 all-star appearances; while the righty posted a 1.15/3.26 line with 6 all-star appearances.
At the time of the initial draft, the right hander was a B/A+ (62/98) and he topped out at B+/A+ (68/100). The lefty was a C+/A+ at the initial draft, with 99 control; he topped out at B/A+ (64/100).
From 1956-60, the two pitched for the same franchise and posted these numbers:
1.27/3.94 vs. 1.13/2.83
1.16/3.14 vs. 1.13/3.01
1.32/3.82 vs. 1.04/3.04
1.02/2.70 vs. 1.08/2.90
1.09/2.89 vs. 1.01/2.68
There are two seasons there, out of 5, where the right-handed (and higher rated) pitcher actually posts significantly better numbers.
In the playoffs, we see again very, very similar stats:
The right handed pitcher has a 1.02/2.86 line; while the southpaw has a 1.07/3.08 line (but, there is one season there with the lefty that he was still a C+/A+ in '51, where he was just turn-away awful, for the other seasons, he is as good or better ((probably better)) than the RHP).
So, I'm seeing that there are some other examples which would go into the evidence pile on the other side of this argument.
tm4559
July 25, 2010 at 10:14PM View BBCode
i don't even doubt there is a problem really. if the left handed pitchers face too numberous one sided lefty killers that shouldn't even be fully developed, that is a function of that silly development system. i don't doubt it, because that system produces too much of everything, too many a- (and a) pitchers, too many great left handed hitters, too many great right handed hitters, too many great one sided hitters. it produces too much of everything, too many players period for a16 team league. that is why every team has a host of a- hitters on the bench, a host of a- pitchers buried in the pen, and a host of b+ and low a- players buried in the minors, because it is too much. you guys need to get your leagues restarted, and get rid of that system. its dumb.
tm4559
July 25, 2010 at 10:18PM View BBCode
(and i am sorry, i could show you a lot of cards of good left handed and right handed pitchers that were (seemingly) just the same, ratings wise, and were the same, results wise. but those were letter leagues, and those results can be misleading. i wish you luck, really, in finding a game you like better.)Pages: 1 2