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ballmark
Let's start with the thing that took me the longest to learn: SimD grades are not like school grades. A "C+" player is *not* "slightly above average." A C+ player is, for the most part, terrible - radioactive, even - if he's 22 or older. 21 is dang sketchy and 20 is borderline. A "B" player (older than 23) is only good if they can hit, and then they should be mostly relegated to the bench or used as injury insurance.
A bonafide major league player is AT LEAST a B+ player, and if you hope to compete for the pennant, you must have at least six red letter players in your starting lineup, three in your rotation, and two in your bullpen.
Here are the two tools I've devised (yes, I'm giving away precious SimSecrets here) that have helped me the most. The first is what I call the "Red Letter Development Curve." If a player is going to hit red letters by the time they turn OS28 (when 95% of their growth as a player is completed), they must pass this filter (this is also handy as you rank draft classes, folks):
OS17: C- or better w/no "F" grades.
OS18: C or better with no "D-" grades.
OS19: C+ or better with no "D" grades.
OS20: B- or better with no "D+" grades.
OS21: B- or better with no "C-" grades.
OS22: B or better with no "C" grades.
OS23: B+ or better.
At age 24 and 25, you can expect a player to advance 1/3 of a grade level (from a B to a B+, for example) by OS28. After that, the grade levels will only tick up if they were close to begin with or are getting massive playing time or ABE has granted them special dispensation.
If you're unloading veterans for prospects, you want players that pass this filter. Anything less and you're getting a poor return for your goodies.
In fact, let's talk for a moment about the reasons to trade with another owner.
1) You are beginning a rebuild. Unloading veterans for prospects.
2) You are in the middle of a rebuild and have too much of one resource. (Three solid catchers, for example.)
3) You are ready to compete and need to fill some holes in your roster.
4) You are chasing the pennant and need one or two final pieces to get there.
5) You have too many prospects and not enough CPs.
6) You have too few prospects and CPs burning a hole in your pocket.
Anything else is just trading for the sake of trading - and let me be clear: there ain't nuthin' wrong with that - but just be careful you're not hosing your roster.
Always be thinking down the road. Have a plan. Here's another SimSecret: the best way to build your roster for both today and tomorrow is to have a player 10 years younger than your starter in training so at age 24-26, they are ready to assume the full time mantle passed on by the declining All Star. This means if your current starter is younger than 28, you don't have to worry about replacing him just yet. This is a good thing as we can really only train 3-5 players at one time.
So here's that second tool I said I'd give you. Break a player card down into Offensive and Defensive components. Here's the scale:
F=2
D-=8
D=16
D+=24
C-=32
C=40
C+=48
B-=56
B=64
B+=72
A-=80
A=88
A+=96
Those values are the midpoint of each grade's point spread. Take the CvR,PvR,CvL,PvL and Spd. Add together. Multiply by 0.16. This will give you a players "OFFENSIVE SCORE." Take the Range/Arm values. Add together. Multiply by 0.1. This will give you a player's "DEFENSIVE SCORE." When you add these values together you will have a rough TOTAL score that should fall somewhere in the grade range listed on the card. I'm sure that pretty much everyone knows that. But here's what you may not know and my - literally - years of experience may help.
OFFENSIVE SCORE:
<50 ... this player is not ready to hit in the major leagues.
<60 ... this is a bench bat. Injury insurance.
60 points and up is really a good minimum for a player to hit decently in the majors.
65 points and up and you probably have an All Star on your hands.
70 points and up and you're talking potential Hall of Fame hitter.
DEFENSIVE SCORE:
<10 ... cement glove. If they can't hit a ton, they ain't ready to be here.
11-13 ... average defensively. Can at least hold their own.
14-16 ... potential Gold Glove winner.
17-20 ... Wow. Just wow. They can play any position on the diamond.
+++++
So I hope this little novella helps our newer owners when someone offers them a trade. The trade dynamics generally say that one person is giving up current value and obtaining future value. The trick is to GET AS GOOD AS YOU GIVE. Trading a red letter player? The one you're getting back better have a decent shot at hitting red letters or the deal isn't fair.
If the scales tip too far into the "isn't fair" zone, someone in the league is likely to protest if only to protect the owner on the short end of the stick. We know you both agreed to the deal - no one holds a gun to your head to click "Accept" - but we fear you just haven't learned the true value of SimPlayers when uneven trades are made.
Personally, my policy on trade complaints is two-fold: 1) I never file a protest and 2) I always vote to let the trade stand. How else are you going to learn? But I understand why another owner would file. I do. My own terrible experience my first few months here made me determined to become the best student of the game I could. That's why I don't file, hoping you'll be burned enough to make yourself fireproof, too.
-- Mark
Evaluating a Trade Offer
December 06, 2015 at 01:33AM View BBCode
I'm sure (maybe I should say I'm *hoping*) other game veterans will jump in with their two cents on this thread.Let's start with the thing that took me the longest to learn: SimD grades are not like school grades. A "C+" player is *not* "slightly above average." A C+ player is, for the most part, terrible - radioactive, even - if he's 22 or older. 21 is dang sketchy and 20 is borderline. A "B" player (older than 23) is only good if they can hit, and then they should be mostly relegated to the bench or used as injury insurance.
A bonafide major league player is AT LEAST a B+ player, and if you hope to compete for the pennant, you must have at least six red letter players in your starting lineup, three in your rotation, and two in your bullpen.
Here are the two tools I've devised (yes, I'm giving away precious SimSecrets here) that have helped me the most. The first is what I call the "Red Letter Development Curve." If a player is going to hit red letters by the time they turn OS28 (when 95% of their growth as a player is completed), they must pass this filter (this is also handy as you rank draft classes, folks):
OS17: C- or better w/no "F" grades.
OS18: C or better with no "D-" grades.
OS19: C+ or better with no "D" grades.
OS20: B- or better with no "D+" grades.
OS21: B- or better with no "C-" grades.
OS22: B or better with no "C" grades.
OS23: B+ or better.
At age 24 and 25, you can expect a player to advance 1/3 of a grade level (from a B to a B+, for example) by OS28. After that, the grade levels will only tick up if they were close to begin with or are getting massive playing time or ABE has granted them special dispensation.
If you're unloading veterans for prospects, you want players that pass this filter. Anything less and you're getting a poor return for your goodies.
In fact, let's talk for a moment about the reasons to trade with another owner.
1) You are beginning a rebuild. Unloading veterans for prospects.
2) You are in the middle of a rebuild and have too much of one resource. (Three solid catchers, for example.)
3) You are ready to compete and need to fill some holes in your roster.
4) You are chasing the pennant and need one or two final pieces to get there.
5) You have too many prospects and not enough CPs.
6) You have too few prospects and CPs burning a hole in your pocket.
Anything else is just trading for the sake of trading - and let me be clear: there ain't nuthin' wrong with that - but just be careful you're not hosing your roster.
Always be thinking down the road. Have a plan. Here's another SimSecret: the best way to build your roster for both today and tomorrow is to have a player 10 years younger than your starter in training so at age 24-26, they are ready to assume the full time mantle passed on by the declining All Star. This means if your current starter is younger than 28, you don't have to worry about replacing him just yet. This is a good thing as we can really only train 3-5 players at one time.
So here's that second tool I said I'd give you. Break a player card down into Offensive and Defensive components. Here's the scale:
F=2
D-=8
D=16
D+=24
C-=32
C=40
C+=48
B-=56
B=64
B+=72
A-=80
A=88
A+=96
Those values are the midpoint of each grade's point spread. Take the CvR,PvR,CvL,PvL and Spd. Add together. Multiply by 0.16. This will give you a players "OFFENSIVE SCORE." Take the Range/Arm values. Add together. Multiply by 0.1. This will give you a player's "DEFENSIVE SCORE." When you add these values together you will have a rough TOTAL score that should fall somewhere in the grade range listed on the card. I'm sure that pretty much everyone knows that. But here's what you may not know and my - literally - years of experience may help.
OFFENSIVE SCORE:
<50 ... this player is not ready to hit in the major leagues.
<60 ... this is a bench bat. Injury insurance.
60 points and up is really a good minimum for a player to hit decently in the majors.
65 points and up and you probably have an All Star on your hands.
70 points and up and you're talking potential Hall of Fame hitter.
DEFENSIVE SCORE:
<10 ... cement glove. If they can't hit a ton, they ain't ready to be here.
11-13 ... average defensively. Can at least hold their own.
14-16 ... potential Gold Glove winner.
17-20 ... Wow. Just wow. They can play any position on the diamond.
+++++
So I hope this little novella helps our newer owners when someone offers them a trade. The trade dynamics generally say that one person is giving up current value and obtaining future value. The trick is to GET AS GOOD AS YOU GIVE. Trading a red letter player? The one you're getting back better have a decent shot at hitting red letters or the deal isn't fair.
If the scales tip too far into the "isn't fair" zone, someone in the league is likely to protest if only to protect the owner on the short end of the stick. We know you both agreed to the deal - no one holds a gun to your head to click "Accept" - but we fear you just haven't learned the true value of SimPlayers when uneven trades are made.
Personally, my policy on trade complaints is two-fold: 1) I never file a protest and 2) I always vote to let the trade stand. How else are you going to learn? But I understand why another owner would file. I do. My own terrible experience my first few months here made me determined to become the best student of the game I could. That's why I don't file, hoping you'll be burned enough to make yourself fireproof, too.
-- Mark
Horseradish
The best advice I can give you is study, study, study, study......if that doesn't appeal to an owner and to some it doesn't.....and that's fine.......at least do yourself a favor and ask a veteran.....there are plenty of great veteran's here who will give you an honest opinion on the value of a player......
Horseradish Atlanta
[Edited on 12-6-2015 by Horseradish]
December 06, 2015 at 06:45AM View BBCode
I would add one caveat to Ballmark's assessment which for the most part is spot on.......spend some time going back and looking at drafts and how players have panned out......go back and look at their beginning grades, the age they were drafted at and where they are at now.....it becomes fairly clear what can normally be expected from the average 17-18 year old or older etc....for example Arlie Rapp and Charlie Tuck came out in the same draft.......at the time although Rapp was drafted #1 overall there was a school of thought that Tuck was the player with the better upside because of grades.....you can make your own assessment as to which of the two you would probably want today......which leads me to the caveat that has to do with the way a veteran owner looks at trades/evaluate players...... and that is this....."PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT ABE ALLOWS A PLAYER TO PRODUCE" as much or more than you pay attention to their letter grades...... case in point is a trade I made recently that was questioned from the standpoint that it was felt I got fleeced....first and foremost there are times you trade a young stud simply for the assets that you can gain for a rebuild.....the assessment was made that all I got was a nice singles hitter.....Artie LaRose current career OPS is higher than last seasons NL MVP (Juan Webster)....plus it appears that he is coded to flat out hit even on a bad team like mine....in short based on production LaRose is coded probably pretty much like Juan Webster.....which would you want a true singles hitter or one that is producing an OPS on par with the reigning NL MVP...not to mention the equivalent of 4 (1st round)picks....but simply put ABE allows LaRose to produce over and above that I couldn't care less what his letter grades are......not all A- vs A-, A vs A overall player are created equally......not every A- player is worthy of a first round pick at the top of a draft......not every 1st overall pick in the draft is worth one 1st rounder much less more than that if they can't produce....not every A Overall Starting Pitcher is worth two first rounders just because he is A overall.....if on average he posts a season record of 11-14 to 14-11 for example would you pay the same price as a A overall SP who averages 19-10 season in and season out but are the same age.....NO, PRODUCTION MATTERS!.... there are A- over all players that ABE allows to produce only 10hrs and 45-50 RBI's per season.....and there are B+ overall players who hit 20-30hrs plus 90+ RBI's per season....which guy would you want!!!......yet I still run into owners of all types who will ask for a 1st rounder for the A- overall guy and the only justification they have for it is....he's A- overall.....personally most veteran owners wouldn't be interested in parting with a 1st rounder (unless it's the 16th overall and the guy fits a need, part of Ballmark's plan strategy) for the guy even if he was a defensive genius......Simply put there are B+ Overall players that vastly out produce A- Overall players and A- overall players that produce numbers well beyond A overall players......If a B+ overall player shows a track record of consistently better numbers overall season in season out....he is in fact the better player.....The best advice I can give you is study, study, study, study......if that doesn't appeal to an owner and to some it doesn't.....and that's fine.......at least do yourself a favor and ask a veteran.....there are plenty of great veteran's here who will give you an honest opinion on the value of a player......
Horseradish Atlanta
[Edited on 12-6-2015 by Horseradish]
ballmark
(Of course, things like stadium design and who's hitting in front of/behind him will factor in, too, but let's not get bogged down in advanced level game theory just yet.)
A B+ player killing it is likely high on the Offensive side and low enough on the Defensive side to keep his overall grade depressed. Conversely, an A- player struggling to hit his weight is quite likely low in his grades and low on the Offensive side while being a good defender, which will bump his overall grade higher.
Example:
Player A is 65 Offense/10 Defense = 75 overall (B+)
Player B is 60 Offense/16 Defense = 76 overall (A-)
Player B will look better on paper and your trade partner will talk up how he's taking a lesser player than he's giving ... but as I laid out above and Rich emphasized --> do the math! Or at least look at career production.
December 06, 2015 at 07:54AM View BBCode
Rich is absolutely right ... once a player has hit 28 - though I would rather say 30 - you can look at his career numbers for deeper insights, because he's not likely to break out (though there are "career years") and it's too soon for a decline, so you'll have a good feel - IF HE'S GETTING FULL TIME AT-BATS (500-600+) - of what he's likely to produce.(Of course, things like stadium design and who's hitting in front of/behind him will factor in, too, but let's not get bogged down in advanced level game theory just yet.)
A B+ player killing it is likely high on the Offensive side and low enough on the Defensive side to keep his overall grade depressed. Conversely, an A- player struggling to hit his weight is quite likely low in his grades and low on the Offensive side while being a good defender, which will bump his overall grade higher.
Example:
Player A is 65 Offense/10 Defense = 75 overall (B+)
Player B is 60 Offense/16 Defense = 76 overall (A-)
Player B will look better on paper and your trade partner will talk up how he's taking a lesser player than he's giving ... but as I laid out above and Rich emphasized --> do the math! Or at least look at career production.
Horseradish
guys like Rapp who hit for .280+ averages or more on bad teams with B overall contact......or like a Larose who is in his 3rd full season and is demonstrating improvement in the key categories each season.....I can't stress this enough.......PRODUCTION MATTERS!.......
Horseradish
December 06, 2015 at 02:52PM View formatted
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Again, Mark is really spot on.......which brings me to another point regarding letter grades and how they are misconstrued.....one of my favorite misnomers is the 23yr old A+ contact guy who is marketed with idea somehow that he is the leagues future batting champion....but has essentially zero stats and no production trend line to look at.....there better be something else you need and like about him because all that A+ contact guarantees you is that he (should!!!)make more contact (ie strike out less) than a player with lesser contact letter grades......in no way shape or form does it mean he will hit for avg on the north side of .300 or any type of average at all......my memory banks are loaded with guys that had A+ contact skills and career .250 something averages and a .308 OBP's.....and at the same time loaded with the
guys like Rapp who hit for .280+ averages or more on bad teams with B overall contact......or like a Larose who is in his 3rd full season and is demonstrating improvement in the key categories each season.....I can't stress this enough.......PRODUCTION MATTERS!.......
Horseradish
SIRKERRETH
December 06, 2015 at 05:58PM View BBCode
Thanks guys, very interesting and informative. Have you done something similar for pitching? The only thing I might add is to make positional exceptions, when necessary. For example, a catcher with poor range, or a 1st baseman with no arm, will play better than they're scores might indicate.
Damien435
December 06, 2015 at 06:13PM View BBCode
SIRKERRETH, last time I checked, which admittedly has been a very, very long time, League Messageboards are only for use by members of the league and administrators.
ballmark
At least in one thread.
Buy our Milwaukee Bot franchise and maybe I'll share. Heh, heh, heh.
December 06, 2015 at 09:20PM View BBCode
Sirkerreth --> Yes. I have/do something similar for pitchers, but I can't give *ALL* my SimSecrets away.At least in one thread.
Buy our Milwaukee Bot franchise and maybe I'll share. Heh, heh, heh.
seahags
December 06, 2015 at 10:24PM View BBCode
High contact hitters.to be substantial require red letter speed
ballmark
Thanks for understanding.
February 02, 2016 at 11:01PM View BBCode
GGL Guys ... I occasionally link to this post when I feel it would be helpful for someone in one of my other leagues. Beats having to write it all over again.Thanks for understanding.
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