celamantia
Career-ending injuries
July 25, 2002 at 04:41PM View BBCode
To keep thing spicy and keep the talent moving around, I suggest the possibility of Career-Ending Injuries. Each time a player is injured, apply the following formula:
=(((Age-15)*(Age-15))/120)*((150-Health)/100)
The result is the percentage chance that this injury is a Career-Ending Injury, after which the player immediately retires.
For a player with 50 health, these percentages work out as:
Age Chance of CEI
16 0.01
20 0.21
24 0.68
28 1.41
32 2.41
36 3.68
40 5.21
For a player with 80 health, these percentages work out as:
Age Chance of CEI
16 0.01
20 0.15
24 0.47
28 0.99
32 1.69
36 2.57
40 3.65
For a player with 20 health, these percentages work out as:
Age Chance of CEI
16 0.01
20 0.27
24 0.88
28 1.83
32 3.13
36 4.78
40 6.77
What do you think? Too harsh? Too lenient?
andrew
July 25, 2002 at 06:03PM View BBCode
It may make more sence if younger players can have more CEI. How many up and coming young players have never developed because of injuries that ended up being career ending.
An example might be Rick Ankiel. Even though he never had one injury that ended his career it seems as though he might be done.
On the other hand that would make rebuilding harder. I do like the idea of career ending injuries though.
hcboomer
July 25, 2002 at 06:14PM View BBCode
I don't know about the specifics and the math, but the basic concept is something I think should definitely be added eventually. I'd suggest that it not be limited to career-ending injuries, though, and that there could be an element for some sort of career-altering Tommy John-surgery type injuries. For instance, maybe a 19-year-old pitcher could be on the shelf for a full season or a season and a half; or a hurt player could be unable to improve for 1-2 seasons; or an injury could reduce a player's ratings, meaning it would take that player more time to get back to where he was and permanently stunt the ceiling on his future growth.
The way the game is structured now, if you've got, say an 18-year-old B- starter, you can pretty much lock in for the guy's entire sim career the growth of his ratings, with the only variable being whether he's pitching in the majors or how many coaching points he's getting in the minors. Same's true of any player, given his age and use. Unless a manager is just careless and has the guy rotting in the minors with no coaching points, that pitcher, or any player, is guaranteed to get better year to year until he reaches 27, and won't decline until he hits 33. Nothing changes that, as far as I understand at this point.
That's not particularly realistic, and I think the ability to have these sorts of injuries would enhance the value of building up a system of young prospects -- another aspect that could boost the ability of bad teams at a given point to build for the future.
These kinds of injuries might also serve as a bit of a long-term talent balancer to compensate for the influx of amateur talent every year. Personally, I think this should be one of the higher-priority enhancements.
celamantia
July 25, 2002 at 06:16PM View formatted
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[quote]
It may make more sence if younger players can have more CEI. How many up and coming young players have never developed because of injuries that ended up being career ending.
[/quote]
Well, that brings up a related issue: how many prospects wash out in the minors not due to talent, but who just don't have the temperament to be a big leaguer, or family issues, or whatever... but having young prospects drop off is a killer when your annual amateur draft is only 5 rounds and your entire farm system nationwide consists of 15 players!
Probably best to just have the old coots stepping on landmines for now...
hcboomer
July 25, 2002 at 06:19PM View BBCode
I also agree with Andrew -- truth is there are actually more career-ending kinds of injuries to young players than veterans and major leaguers. We don't necessarily hear much about them because they're often occurring down in the deep minors someplace. But instead of a steadily ascending range the older a player gets, I'd recommend a curve of some kind that is at its lowest point in a player's prime years. Maybe something that starts at a certain level at 16 years, drops a bit all the way to 27, then stays at that low point through to 32 or so when it starts going back up.
celamantia
July 25, 2002 at 06:20PM View BBCode
These kinds of injuries might also serve as a bit of a long-term talent balancer to compensate for the influx of amateur talent every year. Personally, I think this should be one of the higher-priority enhancements.
I fully agree that the whole aspect of player development and balance needs improvements. The nice thing is that career-ending injuries can be added right now, since they're so simple.
celamantia
July 25, 2002 at 06:21PM View BBCode
Originally posted by hcboomer
I also agree with Andrew -- truth is there are actually more career-ending kinds of injuries to young players than veterans and major leaguers. We don't necessarily hear much about them because they're often occurring down in the deep minors someplace. But instead of a steadily ascending range the older a player gets, I'd recommend a curve of some kind that is at its lowest point in a player's prime years. Maybe something that starts at a certain level at 16 years, drops a bit all the way to 27, then stays at that low point through to 32 or so when it starts going back up.
I'd agree, if we had a deeper farm system. But it's hell to lose a prospect when you only get 5 new ones a year, and probably had to waive one or two of them.
hcboomer
July 25, 2002 at 06:22PM View BBCode
Celamantia has a good point too. If there were to be this kind of injury element, might not hurt to expand the minor league roster, at least.
tysonlowery
July 25, 2002 at 07:21PM View BBCode
I was thinking about injuries yesterday. If a guy is injured, he should take a hit in the health skill. He's more likely to be injured again. On the other hand, if a guy goes an entire season without suffering an injury then he should have an increase in health.
Instead of just having a guy retire, what normally happens is that the guy can come back but he just isn't his old self. So maybe if you suffer a serious injury (more than 60 days) the player would get skills decreased across the board. What do you think of these two ideas?
BC
July 25, 2002 at 07:36PM View BBCode
Maybe for ratings that are affected by health. Pitchers take a knock on velocity, maybe endurance. Batters lose some points in speed, range, maybe arm, and possibly power.
Maybe a random variable to affect these. X percent chance of losing points, another variable to determine how much to lose. Seems like many players come back to be very productive after missing much time.
A young player loses less points or is less likely to lose points than an older player?
tysonlowery
July 25, 2002 at 07:45PM View BBCode
A young player loses less points or is less likely to lose points than an older player?
The good thing about a younger player is that he has a chance to earn back these points through improvements. So maybe it should be age independant?
celamantia
July 25, 2002 at 07:47PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysonlowery
I was thinking about injuries yesterday. If a guy is injured, he should take a hit in the health skill. He's more likely to be injured again. On the other hand, if a guy goes an entire season without suffering an injury then he should have an increase in health.
Instead of just having a guy retire, what normally happens is that the guy can come back but he just isn't his old self. So maybe if you suffer a serious injury (more than 60 days) the player would get skills decreased across the board. What do you think of these two ideas?
I think this is a good addition if, as BC says, it affects the more physical items. Contact hitting, pitching control, defensive range, and bunting should take less of a hit than other abilities. Bunting probably shouldn't be affected at all.
HOWEVER... I still think career-ending injuries should be part of the mix! These are the 50's... there is no magic Tommy John surgery. Some things you just don't recover from.
Bob
July 25, 2002 at 07:49PM View BBCode
I agree that career-ending and career-altering injuries would be a great feature to add. While on the topic of injuries, I'd like to add another thought.
I think we need more injuries, particularly of short duration. It seems that players are always getting banged up -- nothing major, but enough to force them to sit a few days.
The examples are endless: Bonds strains a back muscle and misses 2 games. Posada gets hit with a back swing and is out for 4 games. Floyd crashes into the wall and sits out a week. Rivera has a stiff shoulder and isn't available for a couple days.
It just seems to me that in real life there are a plethora of minor injuries that keep guys out for less than a week. In SimDynasty, however, there seems to be fewer injuries, but those that occur are for a longer period of time.
In addition to being more realistic, more minor injuries would also get backup players more time, benefit active owners and increase the importance of having a deep bench and solid minor league roster.
celamantia
July 25, 2002 at 07:52PM View BBCode
I agree. And since minor-leaguers are also theoretically playing every day, even thought it's not simulated, players in the minors should occassionally pop up with injuries as well.
hcboomer
July 25, 2002 at 08:13PM View BBCode
Given the number of responses to this that have come up so quickly, I get the feeling this is a topic we've all thought a little about.
The idea of reducing those physical rankings for long-term injuries makes a lot of sense, although it doesn't necessarily have to be a permanent thing -- could be for the rest of a season, for example, or for a full following season.
I agree that there really should be some way of providing for minor leaguers to be injured as well. Somewhere in that theoretical sim world they're playing, so they should be getting hurt too.
The career-enders should be used very sparingly -- and frankly I think they have more of a place in the minors. Think about it, even in the '50s, how often was someone in the majors so badly hurt that he never played again? I suppose we could have a random death now and then, like Harry Agganis, but even horribly injured guys like Herb Score made it back to some degree. In the minors, lesser injuries will cause some guys to just pack it in for good. But once they're in the show, even in the '50s, they'll go through hell to stick around usually.
The long-term career-alterers, however, could be used more frequently (they don't always have to be extreme, just tweaking a guy downward a little).
BC
July 25, 2002 at 08:18PM View BBCode
I also think that players should be injured on occasion just for the day and be back for the next. Occasional flu or the more often 3 or 4 day injury.
But this does bring up something that has surfaced for several days now. The minors just aren't large enough to help an owner cover all these injuries or hits to the minor league system, etc.
tysok
July 25, 2002 at 10:59PM View BBCode
I've been playing around with Baseball Mogul lately. How fun, I get a solid lineup together and sell all the youngsters... the AI could be better (I easily trade for every Cy Young winner the year after he gets the award)... oh... but I digress...
I think the injury needs to be addressed fully, and then branch out with possible career ending or altering possibilities. I'd like to see the real injury before alterations... If a pinch hitter comes in and strikes out there's really not a possibility of him getting injured. :) But if the 2B gets spiked while trying to turn the double play, or a runner breaks his finger sliding into base, it would force managers to keep some talent on their benches for emergencys... For instance anyone I've put on 1B besides Kerlin and Connor have really sucked, Connor can't hit anything so he spends his life in the minors in case Kerlin goes down. If the possibility exists that Kerlin could foul a ball off his toe and have to leave in the first inning, I'd be forced to have a man to cover 1B well or risk a pathetic display and a loss.
Anyhow, I like the idea of career altering, more than ending. If a pitcher tears his rotator cuff he's not going to be able to throw as hard as he used to, if he was a B velocity he'd drop to a D for the rest of the year (if he made it back), and then he could slowly get stronger back into the mid or high C range given time. An A speed runner that pulls a hamstring would get a little slower after he came back, but would lose more in range (since the speed factor is "smart baserunning" ability as well).
What I would rather not see is a pitcher go down and the injury affects his contact vs Righty, or a hitter who loses points in Velocity.
It seems that things in the game are not quite relative already. An A+ runner who gets better at running while in the minors for example (he can already run! Get in the batting cages!).
If the percentages worked out to, for example, every team having 2 altering injuries a year... The first team has an altering injury and his best contact hitter gets a letter grade dump on contact, and his ace loses endurance. The second team could end up with his catcher losing a letter in endurance and the ace of his staff loses a letter in range... The second team has still hit the percentages and all is equal but luck ends up killing the first teams chance (even remote) of competing. While the second team still has the same abilities in the fields that matter.
I think it would be nice as well to have, not only a baseline chance of an injury occuring, but also situations where it may increase. Say you're down to the wire, 2 games out of 1st with 3 games to go, battling the team that IS in 1st right now. Your team should be a little more hyped, perhaps trying to score on that single ends up in an ugly (bloody) collision at the plate. Or maybe the CF is so pumped up he dives for a ball when he maybe should have laid back, and gets a face full of grass and a sprain neck as well... Your pitcher may not back down from the pain in his shoudler as he normally would, or a runner gets spiked stealing a base.
There are also close games (1-0 in the 9th), hitter or runner going for a record, or even heated rivalries that could spur your team unknowlingly into an increase in injury possibility.
Perhaps giving the players a "personality" wouldn't be out of order, if a pitcher is getting pummeled he may bean the guy who hit the grand slam last inning, a hitter that's gone 0 for his last 30 may argue a call strike and get ejected...
There all sorts of possibilities in "injury" type things that would be extremely interesting to see in the game, but at this time Career ending or even altering doesn't seem like that big of a desire.
I do like the ideas about altering though, but it would be more interesting at this point to see it come from his performance rather than a random chance. For example, an 18 year B hitter that hit 300 in 300 or so ABs should automatically get increases in contact, pitchers with C control that somehow beat the odds and gave up no walks should have a jump there, a C power hitter that took 40 deep should get better... etc. Also on the other side, an A contact hitter that for some reason slumped to 200 for the year would lose some ability. And everything relative, the 18 year old hitter would slowly deterierate to just above what he was, perhaps the slumping contact hitter would get almost back to where he was, as long as they somehow beat, or lost, the odds. 18 year old hitter would have to keep his average above 300, the second it drops below he would slowly lose points depending on just how low his average ends up.
Bah! Too many things I'd like to see, not enough time to figure out how to implement it. :)
celamantia
July 26, 2002 at 01:07PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysok
If a pinch hitter comes in and strikes out there's really not a possibility of him getting injured. :)
He might pull a muscle, but he's probably not going down for more than a day or two.
Anyhow, I like the idea of career altering, more than ending. If a pitcher tears his rotator cuff he's not going to be able to throw as hard as he used to, if he was a B velocity he'd drop to a D for the rest of the year (if he made it back), and then he could slowly get stronger back into the mid or high C range given time.
To do this, Tyson needs to keep two tables: normal abilities and current abilities, and should have a new (undisplayed) attribute, recovery rate. Recovery rate starts the same for all players, but can be reduced after injuries.
With these separate tables, players who are playing tired could have their attributes fall during a game (making defensive replacements more valuable), and depending on the recovery rate and health, those effects may last a day or two. All injuries should reduce related abilities on the "current" table, whereas career-altering injuries would cause reductions in both the current and normal tables.
It seems that things in the game are not quite relative already. An A+ runner who gets better at running while in the minors for example (he can already run! Get in the batting cages!).
This is definately one of my pet peeves! I don't think only the lowest stat should improve, but those at B or better should be weighted lower than those below B. Better yet, give us more coaching points and allow us to apply coaching points to specific abilities!
I think it would be nice as well to have, not only a baseline chance of an injury occuring, but also situations where it may increase. Say you're down to the wire, 2 games out of 1st with 3 games to go, battling the team that IS in 1st right now. Your team should be a little more hyped, perhaps trying to score on that single ends up in an ugly (bloody) collision at the plate. Or maybe the CF is so pumped up he dives for a ball when he maybe should have laid back, and gets a face full of grass and a sprain neck as well... Your pitcher may not back down from the pain in his shoudler as he normally would, or a runner gets spiked stealing a base.
<superhero voice>This is a job for Managerial Tendencies!</superhero voice>
In another thread a while ago, I suggested that managers have the ability to amp up play for various things, such as baserunning, fielding, throwing, etc., which would give an increase in related abilities, at the cost of causing more errors and injuries. For example, an outfielder gunning harder than normal may throw someone out at the plate he wouldn't be able to nail ordinarily, but would have a bigger chance of a wild throw or a muscle pull. An outfielder with Fielding amped up would dive for catches, increasing his range... but would have a greater chance of injury, or would give up an extra base if he missed. (Missing on a dive wouldn't be an error.) This might even produce a rare inside-the-park home run, if a fielder missed a dive or jump on a triple!
Perhaps giving the players a "personality" wouldn't be out of order, if a pitcher is getting pummeled he may bean the guy who hit the grand slam last inning, a hitter that's gone 0 for his last 30 may argue a call strike and get ejected...
Not to look like I'm stealing all of your ideas, but I'd considered this as well... a "temperament" rating that shows how well a player reacts to stress. Players that are having an off day and low temperament would actually get worse as they got frustrated, whereas one that played poorly but had a VERY high temperament might actually get a bit better as he bore down. This could also come into play in "clutch" situations: men in scoring position in the bottom of the 9th, down one run, how do you respond to the pressure? And yes, a player with low temperament might pop off at the umpire and get yanked.
DougPaz
July 26, 2002 at 05:51PM View BBCode
I love the idea of short term injuries. A day or three. It would be tough to follow in the Beta league because we play three games at a time but in the Dynasty and single leagues it would force the owners to check in more often or at least have capable backups.
I am less endeard with the career-ending injuries. It is tough enough to get good players now, I'd hate to lose a twenty something star to a blown out shoulder or something.
One way or the other, I think it would be a good idea to add a description of injuries to the game. Now you just hear that your player will be out for 23 days. It would be nice to at least find out that he was diving into the brick wall to make a catch or even that he fell off the team bus at the hotel or punched the water cooler. You could have a few "chuckle" injuries but most would be hard core i.e. pulled a muscle breaking up a DP.
I do think it is a good idea to incorporate the injuries or lack thereof to affect total health or skill but only in a very small way.
I will stop here less someone thinks that I am trying to be more "Tysok-like" in my reply!!! :P
tysok
July 26, 2002 at 09:45PM View BBCode
Haha... sorry, my mind doesn't work in a straight line, it kinda zig zags towards the end not unlike a drunk man trying to get out the bar door. :)
Also, about the players being amped up (increasing range and injury chances etc) I'm not sure that would be a "managerial tendency".
Managers don't really have anything to do with an OF diving for the ball, or a power hitter swinging too hard and getting a K. Seems like those kind of "amplifiers" would be entirely related to the game. If you're in a close ball game and fighting a team just ahead or just behind you in the standings the players would be amped, perhaps because they want that 500 billion dollar bonus that comes with making the world series (dang, 500 billion? Cost of living is just a killer for "bits" these days).
celamantia
July 27, 2002 at 03:04AM View BBCode
A manager can definately control the level of play. A team that's in first place by 10 games two weeks before the season is out probably wants his guys to back off, not risk injuries or supid errors. A manager of a team on the bottom at the All-Star break may whip his team into a frenzy to go all-out to climb the standings, or may back off and write off the season and go into Building Mode, where again he'd rather see his players healthy than diving for catches.
There are some things, of course, that are definately in the manager's realm. Going back to High Heat again, here's what's on their Manager Tendencies screen Each item is rated between "Almost Never" and "Very Often":
- Substitute pinch hitters for pitchers
- Substitute pinch hitters for position players
- Defensive substitutions
- Intentional walks
- Pitchouts
- Pickoff throws
- Using substitutions in bowout situations
- Pitching changes
- Pinch runners
- Steal attempts
- Hit and run plays
- Sacrifice bunts
- Squeeze plays
celamantia
July 27, 2002 at 05:09AM View BBCode
Originally posted by DougPaz
One way or the other, I think it would be a good idea to add a description of injuries to the game. Now you just hear that your player will be out for 23 days.
As a sample, here's what the real Los Angeles Dodgers injury list looks like today:
Jul 21, 2002 Jeff Reboulet 15-Day DL strained lower back
Jun 27, 2002 Chad Kreuter 15-Day DL Left leg contusion
May 27, 2002 Kevin Brown 15-Day DL Sprained ligament in right elbow
May 14, 2002 Jesse Orosco 15-Day DL Strained left oblique muscle
May 11, 2002 Terry Mulholland 15-Day DL Lower back strain
Apr 20, 2002 Kevin Brown 15-Day DL Torn scar tissue, swollen right elbow
Mar 30, 2002 Jolbert Cabrera 15-Day DL Recovery from gunshot wound
Mar 20, 2002 Darren Dreifort 60-Day DL Recovery from elbow surgery
tysok
July 28, 2002 at 02:45AM View BBCode
"A manager can definately control the level of play. A team that's in first place by 10 games two weeks before the season is out probably wants his guys to back off, not risk injuries or supid errors. A manager of a team on the bottom at the All-Star break may whip his team into a frenzy to go all-out to climb the standings, or may back off and write off the season and go into Building Mode, where again he'd rather see his players healthy than diving for catches."
The manager can try to do this. It still falls to the player as to how he plays. If your team is at the bottom, you the player want to win. The RF may not care, he's just there for the money, not to get hurt. The manager can't do anything about him but pull him off the field.
However all the players in this game should want to win, so when certain things happen (as in playing a rival, or a tight game and the difference in winning or losing could be his play) he'd put out some extra effort.
The manager can try and get them all hyped up, but the difference in diving for that ball to try and make that miracle play is up to the situation and the player.
The manager can tell them to back off, but why would he do that? You're either too far behind to make a difference, or you're way ahead. The player would know this as well... if they're playing a rival their still going to take the chances on the field no matter what they've been told.
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