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khazim
Of the Right Fielders who started at least 100 games in RF in 2009, Hawpe:
7th most innings played (1195.2).
15th in total chances and put-outs (213 and 222 respectively)
That means he went 5.38 innings per chance, the highest ratio by far. The next closest (Ryan Ludwick) was 4.86 innings per chance.
10th fewest errors, but in actual numbers is 4 less than the two best RF in terms of errors, Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Ludwick, each with 1 .
This is what happens when you have an outfielder play for a team whose pitching causes ground balls to be hit with much more frequency than fly balls.
Hawpe's 1195.2 innings played last season is only slightly more than Jason Upton's 1180 innings played. This is the only thing that is comparable as:
Upton had a 310 total chances to Hawpe's 222. That's 88 more total chances with Upton playing 15.2 less innings. More importantly, Upton had 40% more chances than Hawpe. Statistically, that makes a huge difference.
The issue I've always had with Hawpe is simple; he can't hit left-handed pitching.
His batting average last year was .243 vs. lefties and .303 vs. righties - a 60 point difference
His OBP last year was .337 and .403 vs. righties - a 66 point difference
His SLG last year was .438 vs. lefties and .552 vs. righties - a 114 point difference
His OPS last year was .775 vs. lefties and .955 vs. righties - a 180 point difference
He's one of the best hitters we have vs. right-handed pitching, but they may as well give him the day off every time a LHP starts or comes in from the bullpen.
April 16, 2010 at 09:43PM View BBCode
Well, since you love stats, let me give you a few, albiez.Of the Right Fielders who started at least 100 games in RF in 2009, Hawpe:
7th most innings played (1195.2).
15th in total chances and put-outs (213 and 222 respectively)
That means he went 5.38 innings per chance, the highest ratio by far. The next closest (Ryan Ludwick) was 4.86 innings per chance.
10th fewest errors, but in actual numbers is 4 less than the two best RF in terms of errors, Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Ludwick, each with 1 .
This is what happens when you have an outfielder play for a team whose pitching causes ground balls to be hit with much more frequency than fly balls.
Hawpe's 1195.2 innings played last season is only slightly more than Jason Upton's 1180 innings played. This is the only thing that is comparable as:
Upton had a 310 total chances to Hawpe's 222. That's 88 more total chances with Upton playing 15.2 less innings. More importantly, Upton had 40% more chances than Hawpe. Statistically, that makes a huge difference.
The issue I've always had with Hawpe is simple; he can't hit left-handed pitching.
His batting average last year was .243 vs. lefties and .303 vs. righties - a 60 point difference
His OBP last year was .337 and .403 vs. righties - a 66 point difference
His SLG last year was .438 vs. lefties and .552 vs. righties - a 114 point difference
His OPS last year was .775 vs. lefties and .955 vs. righties - a 180 point difference
He's one of the best hitters we have vs. right-handed pitching, but they may as well give him the day off every time a LHP starts or comes in from the bullpen.
albiez
April 16, 2010 at 11:23PM View BBCode
Hi khazim, here in 2008 we do not care about those worthless statistics, though even those worthless statistics show that Brad Hawpe is a statue in the outfield. He is horrible. It is not an exaggeration to say that he is the worst (now that Dunn is playing first). There is no one else even close, really. Even Jermaine Dye's unemployed ass is like "Brad Hawpe should not play defense."
shep1582
there are no reasons to go to a fillies game.
in fact, it induces vomiting.
must be from being around all those filadelfians...
April 17, 2010 at 02:31AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
[url=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5098407]Best reason not to go to a Phillies game[/url] .
there are no reasons to go to a fillies game.
in fact, it induces vomiting.
must be from being around all those filadelfians...
shep1582
April 17, 2010 at 02:33AM View BBCode
Manny Ramirez was quoted last week saying that Hawpe was a bad fielder.
Jon
These stats aren't just horribly outdated, they don't even mean anything. It's anti-knowledge. The lowest form of analysis.
[Edited on 4-17-2010 by Jon]
April 17, 2010 at 02:37AM View formatted
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"Innings played?" "Chances?" What the f[i][/i]uck do these stats have to do with anything? "Congratulations, you stayed healthy and a lot of batters hit a lot of balls at you." And then there's "innings per chance" which ranks up there with GWRBI and Catcher's ERA as one of the worst b[i][/i]ullshit made-up stats I've ever heard.
These stats aren't just horribly outdated, they don't even mean anything. It's anti-knowledge. The lowest form of analysis.
[Edited on 4-17-2010 by Jon]
khazim
Range Factor? That uses putouts, assists, and either games or innings played at position, right?
I used those same numbers but also included errors to get a better idea of just how often he was even in a position to be involved in a play. It's as straightforward as it gets. Arguing against Innings per Chance means you're arguing against Range Factor. It's the same damn stat.
Ya might want to think about that.
April 17, 2010 at 03:22AM View BBCode
Then what number would you rather see used, Jon, that isn't " censored " in your questionable expert opinion?Range Factor? That uses putouts, assists, and either games or innings played at position, right?
I used those same numbers but also included errors to get a better idea of just how often he was even in a position to be involved in a play. It's as straightforward as it gets. Arguing against Innings per Chance means you're arguing against Range Factor. It's the same damn stat.
Ya might want to think about that.
Jon
UZR uses errors in its formula too. So does +/- and RZR.
April 17, 2010 at 04:03AM View BBCode
Range Factor also sucks. Any defensive stat that doesn't use play-by-play data sucks.UZR uses errors in its formula too. So does +/- and RZR.
albiez
April 17, 2010 at 10:59AM View BBCode
Those stats make him laugh, Benne. Khazim isn't ready for 2008 after all.
albiez
((by perhaps, in Hawpe's case, I mean "definitely))
(((he'd be a perfectly fine DH, he is in the Dunn/Papi/Thome class.)))
April 17, 2010 at 11:02AM View BBCode
(having a high ratio of innings to chances doesn't just mean he had plays behind ground ball pitchers. it could also, perhaps, mean that he is horrible, and can't get to flyballs that he should get to)((by perhaps, in Hawpe's case, I mean "definitely))
(((he'd be a perfectly fine DH, he is in the Dunn/Papi/Thome class.)))
albiez
April 17, 2010 at 11:02AM View BBCode
((((I mean he is not in their class as a hitter, but in terms of defensive ability))))
khazim
April 17, 2010 at 06:26PM View BBCode
he's not in their class as a hitter, unless the pitcher is right-handed.
shep1582
the most fun I ever had watching a corner OFer play was watching Lonnie Smith. He was just a comically bad LF'er, and I can't remember ever seeing anyone as bad (at least not someone who was a legit player, and Smith was a terrific hitter). I've heard tales of Rico Carty and Alex Johnson, but they were slightly before my time, and played in the AL by the time I was old enough to watch games on TV, and there were no ESPN channels televising games. I got the game of the week on NBC on Saturdays, and the Astros on radio.
I'm asking a serious Q here... do we know with certainty how much a bad OF'er costs his team vs a replacement level player? vs a GG type? Defense is the last quantifiable stat frontier. We can say with almost 100% accuracy what offensive players do, and calculate the differences between players. How have these stats you guys refer to helped us quantify defensive stats?
April 18, 2010 at 01:31AM View BBCode
not to be a wet blanket or anything, but just how important is a RF's defense, anyway? Greg Luzinski was basically a statue in LF, but how many runs did he cost the Fillies back in the day? do we know? how many hits vs any other RF does Hawpe cost his team?the most fun I ever had watching a corner OFer play was watching Lonnie Smith. He was just a comically bad LF'er, and I can't remember ever seeing anyone as bad (at least not someone who was a legit player, and Smith was a terrific hitter). I've heard tales of Rico Carty and Alex Johnson, but they were slightly before my time, and played in the AL by the time I was old enough to watch games on TV, and there were no ESPN channels televising games. I got the game of the week on NBC on Saturdays, and the Astros on radio.
I'm asking a serious Q here... do we know with certainty how much a bad OF'er costs his team vs a replacement level player? vs a GG type? Defense is the last quantifiable stat frontier. We can say with almost 100% accuracy what offensive players do, and calculate the differences between players. How have these stats you guys refer to helped us quantify defensive stats?
shep1582
Lonnie was fast and athletic, and you could tell he really WAS trying, he just couldn't get out of his own way.
April 18, 2010 at 01:34AM View BBCode
addendum: Dave Kingman was worse, but he didn't even try. I saw him throw a ball from LF into the 3rd base dugout, on the fly, one time in the Astrodome. He was brutal, but he was such a jerk, you got the sense that he didn't give a ratsass anyway.Lonnie was fast and athletic, and you could tell he really WAS trying, he just couldn't get out of his own way.
khazim
April 18, 2010 at 06:01AM View BBCode
Sweet! Ubaldo Jimenez pitched the first no-hitter in Rockies history. Ugly, though. The front end of the game was so ugly (6BB) that it almost was surprising that he had a no-hitter when Drew Goodman talked about it in the 6th inning. He did finish the game with 7 Ks though. 128 pitches. I swear he's gunning for Lincecum's 2009 pitchcount total.
albiez
everyone (well, everyone honest, including the people who've created them) will tell you that the advanced defensive metrics are far from perfect, and that you need large samples (like 3 seasons of regular play are about as good as 1 season of batting stats, but after 3 years maybe the player's true talent has changed).
Last year, UZR had Brad Hawpe costing the Rockies a little more than 21 runs with his fielding (that is compared to an average right fielder, not replacement), which is insane. Especially since, as you note, we are talking about a corner outfielder, and the fact that this is not a challenging position is taken into account. The general rule of thumb with these things is that 10 runs = 1 win, so if Brad Hawpe were even an average right fielder (which again, is a pretty bad fielder in the grand scheme of things), the thinking is that along the way the Rockies would've won a couple more games. Which makes a difference in the NL West.
He is a legitimately good hitter, but the defense is so bad (and has been for a while now), that Hawpe, over all, even taking into account his position, can be considered a below average (but certainly above replacement) player. [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-hawpe]Here[/url]'s a post about it. Khazim will get all kinds of chuckles, but then again these guys and their demon stats have been touting Ubaldo Jimenez as the bee's knees for a while now, so maybe that will get his attention.
[Edited on 4-18-2010 by albiez]
April 18, 2010 at 11:06AM View BBCode
Hi shep,everyone (well, everyone honest, including the people who've created them) will tell you that the advanced defensive metrics are far from perfect, and that you need large samples (like 3 seasons of regular play are about as good as 1 season of batting stats, but after 3 years maybe the player's true talent has changed).
Last year, UZR had Brad Hawpe costing the Rockies a little more than 21 runs with his fielding (that is compared to an average right fielder, not replacement), which is insane. Especially since, as you note, we are talking about a corner outfielder, and the fact that this is not a challenging position is taken into account. The general rule of thumb with these things is that 10 runs = 1 win, so if Brad Hawpe were even an average right fielder (which again, is a pretty bad fielder in the grand scheme of things), the thinking is that along the way the Rockies would've won a couple more games. Which makes a difference in the NL West.
He is a legitimately good hitter, but the defense is so bad (and has been for a while now), that Hawpe, over all, even taking into account his position, can be considered a below average (but certainly above replacement) player. [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-hawpe]Here[/url]'s a post about it. Khazim will get all kinds of chuckles, but then again these guys and their demon stats have been touting Ubaldo Jimenez as the bee's knees for a while now, so maybe that will get his attention.
[Edited on 4-18-2010 by albiez]
Hamilton2
April 18, 2010 at 11:33AM View BBCode
Jimenez is the bee's knees. Have you seen him pitch this season? Wow.
khazim
April 18, 2010 at 03:35PM View BBCode
his last pitch in yesterday's game was fired in at 97 mph. Just sick. He also pitched from the stretch from the 5th inning on. Crazy the difference in his control making that one change.
shep1582
I've read about 5 articles, and there's interesting info there.
April 18, 2010 at 04:47PM View BBCode
thanks for the link, albiez.I've read about 5 articles, and there's interesting info there.
cubfan531
Also, three complete games in a day, along with a 20 inning marathon. Good day in beisbol.
April 18, 2010 at 05:25PM View BBCode
Hawpe was originally a first baseman (as was Garrett Atkins), he'll probably get moved into first when Helton's ready to call it a career.Also, three complete games in a day, along with a 20 inning marathon. Good day in beisbol.
tm4559
insightful. especially this part
Either way, the Rockies should explore finding someone more suited to patrol their spacious outfield.
the problem with "someone"? might be a great player, i don't know. nobody does, because, you know. it is just a thing that isn't real.
April 18, 2010 at 08:56PM View BBCode
Originally posted by albiez
.
Here[/url]'s a post about it.
[Edited on 4-18-2010 by albiez]
insightful. especially this part
Either way, the Rockies should explore finding someone more suited to patrol their spacious outfield.
the problem with "someone"? might be a great player, i don't know. nobody does, because, you know. it is just a thing that isn't real.
tm4559
April 18, 2010 at 09:46PM View BBCode
sometimes? you obviously don't know what the word means.
shep1582
Someone > no one, I suppose...
I don't watch baseball until after the NBA playoffs, anyway. I'm rooting hard for a 1st round debacle for the Lakers. If nothing else, to not have to see Ron Artest's hair anymore...
April 18, 2010 at 09:51PM View BBCode
I'm sure the Rockies will check with you before they decide on someone, dad.Someone > no one, I suppose...
I don't watch baseball until after the NBA playoffs, anyway. I'm rooting hard for a 1st round debacle for the Lakers. If nothing else, to not have to see Ron Artest's hair anymore...
Tyles
April 18, 2010 at 09:53PM View BBCode
The idea behind your last post is that an alternative to Brad Hawpe in the outfield doesn't exist. That's patently false. Now, the Rockies might have to make a move to do it, but the idea that a corner outfielder to replace Hawpe is "a thing that isn't real" is just kind of not right and also dull and besides which why didn't you ever take me fishing, pops? Don't you love me?
tm4559
i thought we did go fishing. perhaps that was your brother. he was always such a better kid than you.
[Edited on 4-18-2010 by tm4559]
April 18, 2010 at 10:02PM View BBCode
if they hated hawpe so much, perhaps they would replace him. it is not a slam dunk that a thing that brings what hawpe does with the bat, and defense, is readily available to them, right now. or maybe it is. does fanboy there making his comments know? if he does, maybe he should quit his day job at the patent office, and run the rockies.i thought we did go fishing. perhaps that was your brother. he was always such a better kid than you.
[Edited on 4-18-2010 by tm4559]