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msjones1973
All I ask for in return is a majors ready player with top 10 pick value. Preferably a Pitcher. I don't have room in my minors for the upcoming season so I don't need teenagers or picks in return. Thanks for any offers I might receive.
Possible 1st overall available
March 18, 2008 at 02:12PM View BBCode
The possible 1st overall draft pick is available. The pick will be no lower than the 2nd overall. Of course there is a catch, since the draftees have not been shown, this is a site unseen deal. After this years class is shown, the value could go up or down. Do we have any gamblers in this league?All I ask for in return is a majors ready player with top 10 pick value. Preferably a Pitcher. I don't have room in my minors for the upcoming season so I don't need teenagers or picks in return. Thanks for any offers I might receive.
msjones1973
March 20, 2008 at 12:36AM View BBCode
The pick is now gone to Detroit. Good luck Wheels, I hope it works out for you and thanks for a fair trade.
jxroth
March 20, 2008 at 01:06AM View BBCode
I'm not saying that the trade should be overturned or anything like that but let me get this straight: You gave up a potential No. 1 pick (could have easily been a 22 OS B+/A- pitcher like last season or someone who could end up A+/A+ if developed in the minors) for a 23 OS pitcher whose best upside is A-/A- (or pretty mediocre in other words)? You're only developing three players in the minors, so you could have easily added a 4th (a stud if it was the No. 1 or No. 2 pick) and set up your CPs using a 5-5-4-1 approach. I just think that when you're going to give up the No. 1 pick, you'd want the pitcher you got and a late 1st round draft choice.
thindad
Not all number 1 picks are -A studs. Most fall in the B to B+ range. Some are B- or even very young C/C+. If you look at a bunch of drafts you will note that the A- or better stud is unlikely to show up in any one draft. (arround 5% i think, perhaps less).
With CP's fully committed it is not a terrible idea to trade for a future pick or to trade for a major league ready player. Watering down CP to 5-5-4-1 as you suggest is not always the best idea. It lessons the maximun potential of the players who only get 4 or 1 cp.
msjones1973 made his call. He turned down another offer from me that included a position player and a future first round pick. He wanted a pitcher that is what he got.
March 20, 2008 at 05:31PM View BBCode
Interesting. Yes the number one pick can be very valuable and quite a stud. In that case I got a great deal. It is also possible to have a average or even poor class. In some drafts the highly rated palyers are poorly configured or too old to be great.Not all number 1 picks are -A studs. Most fall in the B to B+ range. Some are B- or even very young C/C+. If you look at a bunch of drafts you will note that the A- or better stud is unlikely to show up in any one draft. (arround 5% i think, perhaps less).
With CP's fully committed it is not a terrible idea to trade for a future pick or to trade for a major league ready player. Watering down CP to 5-5-4-1 as you suggest is not always the best idea. It lessons the maximun potential of the players who only get 4 or 1 cp.
msjones1973 made his call. He turned down another offer from me that included a position player and a future first round pick. He wanted a pitcher that is what he got.
jxroth
Also, the watering down of CPs when you go to a 5-5-4-1 strategy is minimal over the long term of a player's career when you consider that it takes 2 to 4 cps to get a conversion.
But even with that my guess is he could have obtained a major league ready player from the draft who wouldn't need much if any minor league development and it's not like he's got phenomenal studs in the minors that can't be replaced by some one better. All in all, I just think this was an ill-considered trade.
March 20, 2008 at 07:20PM View BBCode
Thin...your analysis just doesn't hold up. In a cursory look...just at the last three drafts.....the pitchers chosen first are all better than the pitcher he got from you and two of them are still younger than him. So, I don't think that there is much doubt that there will be a better (probably much better) pitcher for him to take this year if he held on to his likely top pick.Also, the watering down of CPs when you go to a 5-5-4-1 strategy is minimal over the long term of a player's career when you consider that it takes 2 to 4 cps to get a conversion.
But even with that my guess is he could have obtained a major league ready player from the draft who wouldn't need much if any minor league development and it's not like he's got phenomenal studs in the minors that can't be replaced by some one better. All in all, I just think this was an ill-considered trade.
emidas
March 20, 2008 at 07:25PM View BBCode
It's always possible he (Washington) could get the better end of the deal, if the class is a complete wipe; but I don't think I've ever seen a player go #1 that is on the level of the player he received.
thindad
I am sure you keept in mind that when looking at our prior classes that improvments added after the draft change things considerabally.
Stewart who I traded away was drafted as a number 6 pick in the first round of the 1957 draft. He had been trained in the Mionrs for 2 seasons and had 22 gains. He is in his rookie year and currently a 60/64 with 72 endurance he will pick up normal gains from his rockie year. Not all star quality but a useful prospect. I expect some credit for the 2 years of minor league trainning, as well as most of a rookie year in possible improvements. Personally I give extra value for higher control pitchers. To me that seemed a good offer for someone looking for a pitcher.
And keep in mind that you do not do trades without some expectation of possible value. I fully expect that I will get a better player for my team from this trade. If not I would not have offered the trade.
Remember a bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush.
I did a quick look at number 1 picks in other leagues.
1. All Simmonds League (Harry Potter P 21 year old A- (A+B) (Great Pitcher much better that stewart, I hope to do as well) but I do discount him slighty because control is only B.
Number two was a 17 year old pitcher B+ A-/B who possibly should have gone number 1.
2. Albert Bell League (Louis Colman P 17 year old b-, (b/c) Good pitcher will train up well but low control may be an issue. Number 2 was a 24 year old B Catcher with great arm and power.
3. Amos Otis League (Only 1 B or better in the draft he went number 20
Number 1 was a 17 year SP c+ C/B. Excellent not major league ready.
number 2 was a 18 year b- 1b A fine player if you have cp's.
4. Babe Routh League
number 1 was a 18 year old LF B-
Number 2 was the A- stud pitcher 21 year old A+/B- possibly did not go first due to B- control.
5. Bill Hamilton League
Number 1 was a B 20 year old SP A/C+. Another low control dude. (no way would I give Stweart for him in a trade)
an 18 year old B- catcher went 2nd.
6. Billy Williams League
1. 21 Year old B- Starting pitcher c/A- (Close to Steward in my book. Still would not trade for Stewart)
2. was a 17 year old pitcher b/c+
Took these as they were listed. Ingoned leagues that were undrafted. I could do lots more but the point can be taken. Not all #1 picks are GODS. Not all are as good as Stewart. A lot of them require CP committments to reach their potential. All in all I still think it was a good trade. The unknown draft probally will but may not produce a better prospect.
March 20, 2008 at 08:31PM View BBCode
You are correct in that the deal was good for me. But, I did not think it unfailly good. I had offered a 1st round 2 years out with the other player I offered and was told he did not want picks. If the league feels additional compension is needed I will send the pick. But, that decision should be made before our draft is seen. If we (as I hope) have an exceptional player it would be to easy to judge the matter based on the exceptional player.I am sure you keept in mind that when looking at our prior classes that improvments added after the draft change things considerabally.
Stewart who I traded away was drafted as a number 6 pick in the first round of the 1957 draft. He had been trained in the Mionrs for 2 seasons and had 22 gains. He is in his rookie year and currently a 60/64 with 72 endurance he will pick up normal gains from his rockie year. Not all star quality but a useful prospect. I expect some credit for the 2 years of minor league trainning, as well as most of a rookie year in possible improvements. Personally I give extra value for higher control pitchers. To me that seemed a good offer for someone looking for a pitcher.
And keep in mind that you do not do trades without some expectation of possible value. I fully expect that I will get a better player for my team from this trade. If not I would not have offered the trade.
Remember a bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush.
I did a quick look at number 1 picks in other leagues.
1. All Simmonds League (Harry Potter P 21 year old A- (A+B) (Great Pitcher much better that stewart, I hope to do as well) but I do discount him slighty because control is only B.
Number two was a 17 year old pitcher B+ A-/B who possibly should have gone number 1.
2. Albert Bell League (Louis Colman P 17 year old b-, (b/c) Good pitcher will train up well but low control may be an issue. Number 2 was a 24 year old B Catcher with great arm and power.
3. Amos Otis League (Only 1 B or better in the draft he went number 20
Number 1 was a 17 year SP c+ C/B. Excellent not major league ready.
number 2 was a 18 year b- 1b A fine player if you have cp's.
4. Babe Routh League
number 1 was a 18 year old LF B-
Number 2 was the A- stud pitcher 21 year old A+/B- possibly did not go first due to B- control.
5. Bill Hamilton League
Number 1 was a B 20 year old SP A/C+. Another low control dude. (no way would I give Stweart for him in a trade)
an 18 year old B- catcher went 2nd.
6. Billy Williams League
1. 21 Year old B- Starting pitcher c/A- (Close to Steward in my book. Still would not trade for Stewart)
2. was a 17 year old pitcher b/c+
Took these as they were listed. Ingoned leagues that were undrafted. I could do lots more but the point can be taken. Not all #1 picks are GODS. Not all are as good as Stewart. A lot of them require CP committments to reach their potential. All in all I still think it was a good trade. The unknown draft probally will but may not produce a better prospect.
jxroth
As for my cursory look at our league's prior 3 drafts....I was simply comparing Stewart to other first picks in the past three years as they have developed thus far -- and all of them are either better already or going to be much better than him. It just wasn't a completely balanced deal, but not one that needs to be overturned. Nobody tried to rip anybody off and both sides walked into it with their eyes wide open. I just wouldn't have done it if I was DC.
March 20, 2008 at 10:35PM View BBCode
Can't say that I agree with your analysis of the draft choices. I think all of them are better than Stewart, frankly -- who I just don't think will amount too much...he's too old to develop better than A-/A- and that's after some years and if he's lucky.As for my cursory look at our league's prior 3 drafts....I was simply comparing Stewart to other first picks in the past three years as they have developed thus far -- and all of them are either better already or going to be much better than him. It just wasn't a completely balanced deal, but not one that needs to be overturned. Nobody tried to rip anybody off and both sides walked into it with their eyes wide open. I just wouldn't have done it if I was DC.
msjones1973
Mike
March 21, 2008 at 02:16PM View BBCode
Well, this is why I said it was a gamble. After just glancing at this years draft class, I'm pretty confident I did the right thing. All I looked at was pitchers, which is all I would have drafted, and the one I recieved is better than all of them in my opinion. Plus, I still have my 1st round pick that I got from KC in an earlier deal. So, all in all, I'm happy with the deal. Hopefully this will squash the other opinions on what "I" should have or shoudn't have done. Like I said, this was a gamble that I was willing to take. If I hadn't, I would not have as good of a pitcher as I do now, regardless of his talent level. Thanks for the deal again Detroit.Mike
jxroth
Anyway, this has been an interesting thread, I think....opened up a lot of good thoughts about trade value and draft choices. In my book, No. 1 picks (because of their eventual value to the team or trade value in a few seasons) are only given up when you get a huge pot in return.
March 21, 2008 at 04:21PM View BBCode
I have one more opinion to lodge -- on the pitching side thompson or molina -- will turn out to be better than stewart. And I don't think you should only consider players that can go right into the majors.....your team still has a few years of developing to do....so 17 and 18 year olds that will turn out to be better than stewart make more sense than stewart today. Finally, just think of what you could get in two or three seasons when you are ready to contend (hopefully) in a trade for Kirby....he's going to be a stud and I'm sure you could get a very decent pitcher and more for him in a few seasons. Again, you would get more than Stewart. And finally, finally.....you don't have a better hitter than Kirby on your team now or in the future -- so why would you so glibly say that you are only looking for pitchers....hitters with his potential are golden.Anyway, this has been an interesting thread, I think....opened up a lot of good thoughts about trade value and draft choices. In my book, No. 1 picks (because of their eventual value to the team or trade value in a few seasons) are only given up when you get a huge pot in return.
thindad
Yes this was an good decussion. Not all owners read from the same book when it comes to selecting players. So it is no suprise that we will not all see draft picks the same.
I agree that the two releif pitchers you used in your example are solid prospects. But, they will never be starters.
Jxroth your team is now flying high. Your judgment and skills at team development are self evident. Thanks for starting this discussion.
March 22, 2008 at 12:48PM View BBCode
You are welcome Mike. Detroit is also pleased with this trade. But, I had hoped the pitching in this draft class would have been stronger. You never know do you?Yes this was an good decussion. Not all owners read from the same book when it comes to selecting players. So it is no suprise that we will not all see draft picks the same.
I agree that the two releif pitchers you used in your example are solid prospects. But, they will never be starters.
Jxroth your team is now flying high. Your judgment and skills at team development are self evident. Thanks for starting this discussion.
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