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Admin
The other 3 are variation on what hobos suggested. These are tentatively called Flash in the Pan. A player will have sub-par improvements for his career, except during 1 or 2 seasons in which he will get ridiculous improvements. I've created 3 versions of this one.
I haven't made it so any players have these yet. I will work on that next, along with the percentages of each curve that get created in a player pool.
Tyson
[Edited on 4-13-2009 by Admin]
New Variable Development Curves
April 13, 2009 at 08:51PM View BBCode
I have added 5 new curves to the mix. 2 of them are variations on the Enigma curve.The other 3 are variation on what hobos suggested. These are tentatively called Flash in the Pan. A player will have sub-par improvements for his career, except during 1 or 2 seasons in which he will get ridiculous improvements. I've created 3 versions of this one.
I haven't made it so any players have these yet. I will work on that next, along with the percentages of each curve that get created in a player pool.
Tyson
[Edited on 4-13-2009 by Admin]
ballplayer3
April 14, 2009 at 03:51PM View BBCode
For Flash in the Pan, it would seem that you would have to have negative improvements after the good seasons, otherwise the improvements just remain there until age wears the player's performance.
Admin
Tyson
April 14, 2009 at 04:23PM View BBCode
Perhaps the name is not apt - this is a guy that figures things out all in 1-2 seasons. Any suggestions on the name?Tyson
lvnwrth
April 14, 2009 at 05:10PM View BBCode
I kind of like the real "flash in the pan"...call it the Joe Charbonneau curve. All of a sudden a guy gets reallly good...stays there for a season or two...then reverts back to the player he was before, or worse.
redcped
I think Brady Anderson is the best example of that I've ever seen. In '96 he hit 50 homers and never had more than 24 any other season. Slugged .200 points above his career average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderbr01.shtml
April 14, 2009 at 05:23PM View BBCode
What you're talking about is the career year, no? A guy who goes nuts for a season, then reverts to his usual skill level (maybe a tad above or below)?I think Brady Anderson is the best example of that I've ever seen. In '96 he hit 50 homers and never had more than 24 any other season. Slugged .200 points above his career average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderbr01.shtml
Jughead
And how would this curve be any different than Late Bloomer (in terms of name)? Clearly, this curve only has a handful of high-improvement seasons, as opposed to the Late Bloomer curve.
The real purpose of this curve in terms of gameplay is to run interference on the other curves. By looking at the improvement report, you'd otherwise be able to ascertain the player's curve after one anomalous season.
And in fact, perhaps the improvement report could dynamically generate the scouting report. If player has X% conversion rate at Y OS age, then there is a Z chance he is a particular curve. And because actual conversion rate does not equal expect conversion rate, this can be how scouting reports can be wrong! <throws down pencil>
April 14, 2009 at 05:57PM View BBCode
Yeah, if they get named after players, it would be Brady Anderson, but what this curve actually is is someone who finally figures it out. I would call it the Curt Schilling Curve. Maybe Melvin Mora? Doug Jones? Randy Johnson? (It seems that pitchers figure it out more than hitters.)And how would this curve be any different than Late Bloomer (in terms of name)? Clearly, this curve only has a handful of high-improvement seasons, as opposed to the Late Bloomer curve.
The real purpose of this curve in terms of gameplay is to run interference on the other curves. By looking at the improvement report, you'd otherwise be able to ascertain the player's curve after one anomalous season.
And in fact, perhaps the improvement report could dynamically generate the scouting report. If player has X% conversion rate at Y OS age, then there is a Z chance he is a particular curve. And because actual conversion rate does not equal expect conversion rate, this can be how scouting reports can be wrong! <throws down pencil>
Admin
It is very similar to Late Bloomer, but the season of big improvement could happen at any time (18, 29, or 33 for example).
I don't want to name these after players - then we'd get complaints that a curve really didn't follow a player's career path and other discrepancies between how we implement it vs. what happened in that guy's career.
Tyson
April 14, 2009 at 06:06PM View BBCode
Yeah, this isn't really a Flash in the Pan - hence the name should change. It's really Curt Schilling, or honestly I think most major league players. They kind of plod along getting slightly better each year, then magically they figure it out one year.It is very similar to Late Bloomer, but the season of big improvement could happen at any time (18, 29, or 33 for example).
I don't want to name these after players - then we'd get complaints that a curve really didn't follow a player's career path and other discrepancies between how we implement it vs. what happened in that guy's career.
Tyson
Jughead
April 14, 2009 at 06:09PM View BBCode
I know a player who performs this way during a regular season is called "streaky." I don't know that calling the curve "Streaky" is the same thing though.
cy511
How about Rookie Sensation.
Flash in the Pan
April 15, 2009 at 02:15AM View BBCode
New name for Flash in the PanHow about Rookie Sensation.
jetpac
April 15, 2009 at 03:04AM View BBCode
but since it's not just for young'uns, that wouldn't really work
ScooterPie
And I don't just mean that show what comes on the TV.
scooter
April 15, 2009 at 03:36AM View BBCode
I'm quite fond of "Eureka."And I don't just mean that show what comes on the TV.
scooter
redcped
April 15, 2009 at 03:39AM View BBCode
I still think something that reflects a sudden unexplained improvement should be called Needlebutt, Vitamin X, Mystery Vial, Back Acne or something like that.
Admin
Tyson
April 15, 2009 at 02:20PM View BBCode
So far, I like Eureka. The Steroid idea isn't bad - but it may come with some pre-conceived notions of other things that should happen that may not happen with the player.Tyson
ScooterPie
scooter
April 15, 2009 at 02:41PM View BBCode
For Pete's sake, Tyson, do we really need people to talk even more about steroids in baseball? Me, I think I've heard enough over the past few years. But hey, maybe the rest of y'all still think it's the funnest subject ever, and that's fine too. It's your thing; do what you wanna do.scooter
redcped
But I'm with you, scooter, we don't need it in this sanctuary.
April 15, 2009 at 03:56PM View BBCode
I wasn't really serious ... though it would be apt. Most of the guys we associate with a sudden career spike were juicing.But I'm with you, scooter, we don't need it in this sanctuary.
ScooterPie
scooter
April 15, 2009 at 05:38PM View BBCode
Sorry, guys. I tend to be a bit of a drama queen before 10:42 am. Didn't mean to sound quite so huffy.scooter
Admin
I've set this up so that the "Regular" curve will appear about 48 percent of the time going forward. The other 13 curves will be evenly divided at 4 percent each.
I've set this up in a way so that we can create different systems that use different mixes and matches of these curves.
So right now we have 2 systems in the database, Old System and New Default System. Old System will create 100 percent Normal players.
If someone (or a league) had a creative way to distribute the curves, we could set up a new system that uses a different ratio of development curves.
This new creation logic will only happen for newly created players.
Tyson
April 15, 2009 at 08:49PM View BBCode
I went with Eureka, didn't want to upset Scooter ;)I've set this up so that the "Regular" curve will appear about 48 percent of the time going forward. The other 13 curves will be evenly divided at 4 percent each.
I've set this up in a way so that we can create different systems that use different mixes and matches of these curves.
So right now we have 2 systems in the database, Old System and New Default System. Old System will create 100 percent Normal players.
If someone (or a league) had a creative way to distribute the curves, we could set up a new system that uses a different ratio of development curves.
This new creation logic will only happen for newly created players.
Tyson
ScooterPie
Hey, is this a good time to mention how absolutely totally jazzed I am about this whole project? Heck, I'm only in a dynasty league, which means I might never get to use it, but I'm still excited about ... I dunno, maybe about giving different advice to the new guys in Q&A?
Ye gods. I need to start working more hours or something.
scooter
April 15, 2009 at 11:53PM View BBCode
Originally posted by AdminI definitely had that one coming.
I went with Eureka, didn't want to upset Scooter ;)
Hey, is this a good time to mention how absolutely totally jazzed I am about this whole project? Heck, I'm only in a dynasty league, which means I might never get to use it, but I'm still excited about ... I dunno, maybe about giving different advice to the new guys in Q&A?
Ye gods. I need to start working more hours or something.
scooter
Jughead
April 16, 2009 at 05:59PM View BBCode
I was thinking that there would be one of each non-Normal curve in each draft, as opposed to ~3, although maybe you're doing more in Beta so it is easier to see how they work? It seems that if there is a 50-50 chance that the guy is not Normal that it's too high, but that's just personal preference, isn't it.
ScooterPie
Of course, all that stuff I just said was pretty much a useless crock of speculation. I reckon the experience of actually playing it out in beta will reveal a lot.
scooter
April 16, 2009 at 08:28PM View BBCode
I think 50/50 might be about right, Jughead. Consider: for a non-normal curve to matter, the player in question has to be both drafted and developed. And in some cases, he has to be the right age (a curve that's totally normal in the majors but skewed in the minors has no effect on a 23-year-old major-league-ready guy). So now we're down to a much smaller number of non-normal curves actually affecting the game.Of course, all that stuff I just said was pretty much a useless crock of speculation. I reckon the experience of actually playing it out in beta will reveal a lot.
scooter
Admin
Tyson
April 16, 2009 at 08:38PM View BBCode
I've set it up in a way so that if 50/50 isn't he right mix, we can change it easily. Or for that matter, a league could change it per their preference and even eliminate some of the curves.Tyson
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