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bpearly69
I am shocked
November 18, 2009 at 10:35AM View BBCode
No posts about Belichek? I am a huge patriots fan and for sure was expecting some big time trash talk lol, IMO it wasn't a very good move but I understood the reasoning behind it, defense was struggling, so the colts having all 3 timeouts and either 70 or 20 yards I guess didn't matter much, either way I would punt that every time
happy
November 19, 2009 at 01:36PM View BBCode
there was a post about it. It was a boneheaded maneuver, and nothing out of the ordinary for the most overrated asshat of a coach ever. What a surprise, he doesnt look like a genius now that he isnt cheating.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 03:53PM View BBCode
Don't you follow all the numbers people? According to them, it was the right move.
dirtdevil
November 19, 2009 at 03:55PM View BBCode
it is, of course, possible for what is statistically the best move to still be a bad idea. this was one of those times.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 04:01PM View BBCode
Why? Why is it that, despite the fact that the numbers favor Belichick's decision, it was still the wrong one to make?
dirtdevil
because of the human factor. what he's done is essentially tell his defence that they aren't good enough to make a stop even when given 75 yards of field to play with. they'll remember that, and when they are inevitabley called on to make a big stop they will be more likely to be a bit tentative, 'knowing' that their coach has no confidence in their play. he's also bascially told the offence that if the team is going to win games, they'll have to do it on their own, because the defence stinks. that will lead to the offence looking down on the defence, creating bad blood between the two units. even if they had been successful it would have been a poor decision, for those reasons.
November 19, 2009 at 07:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by FuriousGiorge
Why? Why is it that, despite the fact that the numbers favor Belichick's decision, it was still the wrong one to make?
because of the human factor. what he's done is essentially tell his defence that they aren't good enough to make a stop even when given 75 yards of field to play with. they'll remember that, and when they are inevitabley called on to make a big stop they will be more likely to be a bit tentative, 'knowing' that their coach has no confidence in their play. he's also bascially told the offence that if the team is going to win games, they'll have to do it on their own, because the defence stinks. that will lead to the offence looking down on the defence, creating bad blood between the two units. even if they had been successful it would have been a poor decision, for those reasons.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 07:58PM View BBCode
Ugh, pop psychology. They're grownups, they understand what Belichick was trying to do. One can reasonably make the case that Belichick was showing more confidence in them - "I'm going to try to win this game, but if I don't I believe you can stop this team on a short field."
happy
November 19, 2009 at 08:08PM View BBCode
I dont know that the numbers guys think this was a good time to go for it.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 08:11PM View BBCode
[url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html]The math.[/url]
happy
And im starting to come to the conclusion that stat heads (especially those who are completely within the internets) will use the stats to say whatever is the opposite of what mainstream media says.
I cant imagine that the conversion rate is 60% in that situation.
November 19, 2009 at 08:39PM View BBCode
Yeah, that's pretty basic math though. Two league average numbers.And im starting to come to the conclusion that stat heads (especially those who are completely within the internets) will use the stats to say whatever is the opposite of what mainstream media says.
I cant imagine that the conversion rate is 60% in that situation.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 08:53PM View BBCode
Unbelievable. You are no longer allowed to talk about DVOA or whatever the fuck else you have built entire arguments in the past around. Because you are full of shit.
happy
Secondly, [url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-3.html]I dont know if you read the study[/url], but a team is less likely to make it on 4th and 2 inside the 10 than outside the 20 (55% instead of 60%). This is important because unlike a normal 4th and 2, the colts dont need to worry as much about getting burned on an out route, so its essentially a goal line situation since 2 yards is just as good as 70.
So we could AT LEAST adjust the 4th and 2 to 55%.
November 19, 2009 at 10:03PM View BBCode
Ok, just to give one example as to why those numbers are faulty: A coach goes for 4th and 2 if they think that going for it is beneficial to them. What does this mean? Well, coaches are much more likely to go for it on 4th and 2 against...say...Detroit than Baltimore. I would say that good offenses against bad defenses is the norm for 4th and 2.Secondly, [url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-3.html]I dont know if you read the study[/url], but a team is less likely to make it on 4th and 2 inside the 10 than outside the 20 (55% instead of 60%). This is important because unlike a normal 4th and 2, the colts dont need to worry as much about getting burned on an out route, so its essentially a goal line situation since 2 yards is just as good as 70.
So we could AT LEAST adjust the 4th and 2 to 55%.
Damien435
November 19, 2009 at 10:06PM View BBCode
I felt it funny that so many analysts applauded Bellicheck for going for the win on 4th and 2 by trying to pick up the conversion and the same people were condemning Del Rio for successfully pulling off a similarly controversial call earlier in the day. Lesson learned: if it works you're an idiot, if it fails you're a genius for trying.
dirtdevil
November 19, 2009 at 10:10PM View BBCode
right lesson, wrong conclusion. the answer is, if you have 3 superbowl rings, you're a 'genius' already and therefore thinking outside the box. if you don't have any superbowl rings and precious few playoff wins, you're an idiot for even thinking about it.
FuriousGiorge
November 19, 2009 at 10:12PM View BBCode
The overwhelming majority of commentators blasted Belichick for what he did.
tm4559
because it didn't work craig. if your thing doesn't work, you are an asshat.
(non asshats are never, ever wrong. they also never, ever coached football.)
November 19, 2009 at 10:16PM View BBCode
Originally posted by FuriousGiorge
Why? Why is it that, despite the fact that the numbers favor Belichick's decision, it was still the wrong one to make?
because it didn't work craig. if your thing doesn't work, you are an asshat.
(non asshats are never, ever wrong. they also never, ever coached football.)
bpearly69
November 20, 2009 at 10:27PM View BBCode
Haha, thought after a day or two this would pick up, either way if it worked everyone would be saying how great he is, what a smart coach he is, either way they choked, the game never should have gotten to that point, the Colts aren't the better team, they are gonna lose at least 2 games, possibly 3, I don't question Belichek anymore, no reason to, if he doesn't go for it, and the colts march down and score, everyone is saying jeez why didn't you just go for it, your offense always makes short yard conversations because the Patriots usually always do, but now that it failed they say how dumb it was, it's really a lose-lose situation
FuriousGiorge
The Colts have a better record and just beat your team head-to-head. In what universe are the Patriots the better team right now?
November 20, 2009 at 10:32PM View BBCode
Originally posted by bpearly69
either way they choked, the game never should have gotten to that point, the Colts aren't the better team, they are gonna lose at least 2 games, possibly 3
The Colts have a better record and just beat your team head-to-head. In what universe are the Patriots the better team right now?
dirtdevil
November 20, 2009 at 10:37PM View BBCode
yeah, if they had punted and lost no one would have been saying that.
dirtdevil
November 20, 2009 at 10:51PM View BBCode
well there's no question that bellichik is a great coach. but one would assume that it is significantly easier to be a great coach when your defence knows what play is coming, yes.