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jp3baggers
Through 78 games, my Minnesota team has underperformed dramatically, even though, I lead in runs allowed, and have a solid offense (top 5). While it matters little, here's some analysis I hope will post:
Pythagorean Differential from actual wins through 78 games:
-1.31
0.90
-1.25
0.78
-1.17
-2.14
2.55
1.97
0.55
-2.77
-7.91
0.56
2.73
-0.78
3.19
2.91
Notice that every number (sans one) is between -3 and 3. That one is me, at -7.91 under expected wins based on runs scored squared/runs scored squared + runs allowed squared. Now, basically, at 154 games, at this projected pace, I'll finish around 14 games under my feasible record. Infrequently, in the MLB, do teams cross -10, but it has happened (Baltimore Orioles did so in 1967 (-13) and 1972 at -16.)
No biggie, really, but I just noticed that I am not getting many breaks. (And i don't have my team screwed up - as much control as one can have, I don't think I've set my bullpen up to fail or some other such glitch. But one never completely knows...)
But sims don't always follow true to form. I just would be more comforted if a team was overperforming, too - it would show someone is getting lucky. I can deal with that.
Though Washington and St. Louis seemed to be most benefited from this simulation (3.19 and 2.91) so far. :)
Pythogorean Expectation? Does it matter?
November 02, 2011 at 01:31AM View BBCode
Normally, it would not bother me much, but I was curious this time.Through 78 games, my Minnesota team has underperformed dramatically, even though, I lead in runs allowed, and have a solid offense (top 5). While it matters little, here's some analysis I hope will post:
Pythagorean Differential from actual wins through 78 games:
-1.31
0.90
-1.25
0.78
-1.17
-2.14
2.55
1.97
0.55
-2.77
-7.91
0.56
2.73
-0.78
3.19
2.91
Notice that every number (sans one) is between -3 and 3. That one is me, at -7.91 under expected wins based on runs scored squared/runs scored squared + runs allowed squared. Now, basically, at 154 games, at this projected pace, I'll finish around 14 games under my feasible record. Infrequently, in the MLB, do teams cross -10, but it has happened (Baltimore Orioles did so in 1967 (-13) and 1972 at -16.)
No biggie, really, but I just noticed that I am not getting many breaks. (And i don't have my team screwed up - as much control as one can have, I don't think I've set my bullpen up to fail or some other such glitch. But one never completely knows...)
But sims don't always follow true to form. I just would be more comforted if a team was overperforming, too - it would show someone is getting lucky. I can deal with that.
Though Washington and St. Louis seemed to be most benefited from this simulation (3.19 and 2.91) so far. :)
jp3baggers has attached this file: sim1.xlsx (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet)
Hubcap
November 02, 2011 at 06:02AM View BBCode
i can see that you are almost a genius with your math skills,Minnesota...and i mean no disrespect,but for me,if i played this game according to those Pythegorean statistiocs,i would end up with a headache and a bad attitude...i have been roundly criticisized for ignoring those principles,but i do it on purpose and with intent to disprove those eggheads who compiled such nonsense....when i do win a division or a championship,it is a much sweeter celebration and sense of satisfaction....that's my motivation,to go against the grain and still come out on top....just an observation and a long-held conviction
imalbundy2
in the pay leagues, my teams have a much high pyth winning % than actual winning % nearly every single season when I'm competing.
ABE does what ABE does
November 02, 2011 at 06:54PM View BBCode
well i have a degree in mathematics and can say from 4.5+ years of experience that those pyth numbers don't mean squat here.in the pay leagues, my teams have a much high pyth winning % than actual winning % nearly every single season when I'm competing.
ABE does what ABE does
jp3baggers
imalbundy2:"in the pay leagues, my teams have a much high pyth winning % than actual winning % nearly every single season when I'm competing."
@ albundy: Nearly every single season??? - as a math fellow, you just accept that, or you are full of censored . Just saying, it never triggered any wonder? (And I bet you are overstating the bad rate you think you got, or else....you got some loaded dice. Which, why pay to play with a stacked deck - if, for giggles, you played 40 seasons across 5 or 6 leagues, and 30 times your teams obtained less wins that expected. Not an encouraging reason to play - kinda like going home to a nagging wife, over and over, you know the result of the conversation before you start one. )
And i don't have an attitude about it. Project that onto whomever else you beat.
But, I do wonder, about ABE, across all these leagues. Would you want any Monte Carlo-like predictor of results to be biasing outcomes? (Does not matter if you care - but you would like to know that, wouldn't you?)
When math geeks (MIT ones) created models to predict mortgage outcomes, and generated inherent flaws (ignoring downside risks), I hope even a few of you eggheads began to doubt your treasured mathematical modeling and simulation skills. Or maybe Nassim Taleb would be a good read for some of you...Randomness, that may (or may not) be the case. Or the ignoring of sheer randomness in life...because you are so smart.
I know this is just a stupid game, a time suck, really, but you might be well advised to at least be skeptical of what is behind the Wizard of Oz's curtain.
But do as you like - you are free to ignore everything.
November 02, 2011 at 09:19PM View BBCode
thanks for your inputs. I am glad you all are very smart. I wasn't trying to stir up a pot of eggheads, seems plenty exist in this universe of make believe baseball, where it never rains, GMs are always geniuses, and the players are always wrong. I have participated before in such leagues here, going back to around 2007. Not very often, not really caring either, but I just noticed the stats compiling in the league, and wondered. Seeing if some of you where alive...yep, a few of you are.imalbundy2:"in the pay leagues, my teams have a much high pyth winning % than actual winning % nearly every single season when I'm competing."
@ albundy: Nearly every single season??? - as a math fellow, you just accept that, or you are full of censored . Just saying, it never triggered any wonder? (And I bet you are overstating the bad rate you think you got, or else....you got some loaded dice. Which, why pay to play with a stacked deck - if, for giggles, you played 40 seasons across 5 or 6 leagues, and 30 times your teams obtained less wins that expected. Not an encouraging reason to play - kinda like going home to a nagging wife, over and over, you know the result of the conversation before you start one. )
And i don't have an attitude about it. Project that onto whomever else you beat.
But, I do wonder, about ABE, across all these leagues. Would you want any Monte Carlo-like predictor of results to be biasing outcomes? (Does not matter if you care - but you would like to know that, wouldn't you?)
When math geeks (MIT ones) created models to predict mortgage outcomes, and generated inherent flaws (ignoring downside risks), I hope even a few of you eggheads began to doubt your treasured mathematical modeling and simulation skills. Or maybe Nassim Taleb would be a good read for some of you...Randomness, that may (or may not) be the case. Or the ignoring of sheer randomness in life...because you are so smart.
I know this is just a stupid game, a time suck, really, but you might be well advised to at least be skeptical of what is behind the Wizard of Oz's curtain.
But do as you like - you are free to ignore everything.
ElNino
November 03, 2011 at 12:36AM View BBCode
Hah...well put,Minnesota....it may have come off as if i was lecturing in my previous post....i was not...i was simply stating what makes this game fun and entertaing for me because i don't have the math background that others do...one man's Floor is another man's ceiling and that is OK
imalbundy2
it is a FACT that nearly every single season that my teams are COMPETING (i.e. NOT rebuilding) they have a higher pyth % than actual %. if the past stats were available i would PROVE it to you with screen shots.
the reason could be is that when my teams are competing, they are MONSTER squads that win by blowing teams out of the water while only losing close games.
i don't like it one bit, but what can i do about it? if you really DO know anything about math, then you know that there are always outliers on both sides. unfortunately, i am one of those who are on the side that seems to have more bad luck.
it is FACT that i have lost far more playoffs when ahead 3-0 or 3-1 than i have won being down 0-3 or 1-3. that is something that SHOULD balance out, but it's not even close for me.
if you don't want to believe or can't allow your mathematical brain to believe that such things are possible, then that's your problem. i KNOW because i have lived it first hand.
if you check the all time leaders in WS championships you'll see that my teams have been rather successful in spite of it all.
November 05, 2011 at 09:24PM View BBCode
jp3 - i wish i WAS full of censored, but that's the way it is for me here. and frankly i don't like your tone. i am NOT making it up or exaggerating.it is a FACT that nearly every single season that my teams are COMPETING (i.e. NOT rebuilding) they have a higher pyth % than actual %. if the past stats were available i would PROVE it to you with screen shots.
the reason could be is that when my teams are competing, they are MONSTER squads that win by blowing teams out of the water while only losing close games.
i don't like it one bit, but what can i do about it? if you really DO know anything about math, then you know that there are always outliers on both sides. unfortunately, i am one of those who are on the side that seems to have more bad luck.
it is FACT that i have lost far more playoffs when ahead 3-0 or 3-1 than i have won being down 0-3 or 1-3. that is something that SHOULD balance out, but it's not even close for me.
if you don't want to believe or can't allow your mathematical brain to believe that such things are possible, then that's your problem. i KNOW because i have lived it first hand.
if you check the all time leaders in WS championships you'll see that my teams have been rather successful in spite of it all.
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