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maxthesax
why this keeps happening to Balt, I have no idea, but after 5 straight seasons of getting the shaft, I have to wonder.
+/- oddity
November 09, 2012 at 04:24PM View BBCode
another season and another year in which Baltimore gets jobbed by the +/-. This year on offense they were robbed 8x more than they were helped. Not bad except.... the American League average for the other 7 teams of the Dom DiMaggio League defensively was a +20 (gifted)... which of course means, that since Balt was a negative, then some team must have had an early xmas (like receiving 30+ more hits than takeaways)why this keeps happening to Balt, I have no idea, but after 5 straight seasons of getting the shaft, I have to wonder.
paulcaraccio
I don't understand what this means:
since Balt was a negative, then some team must have had an early xmas (like receiving 30+ more hits than takeaways)
November 09, 2012 at 09:50PM View BBCode
That is pretty odd, usually I see that almost every team is in the negative (like 12 out of 16), your league must have an abnormally excessive amount of outstanding defenders.I don't understand what this means:
since Balt was a negative, then some team must have had an early xmas (like receiving 30+ more hits than takeaways)
maxthesax
I hope that clears up what I was trying to say earlier.
November 09, 2012 at 10:37PM View BBCode
a minus is a player failing to make a play (which in turn would be a "gift" hit to the batter) - what I am saying is that the league average (not counting my own team), was a minus 20 (in other words, the fielding sucked and far more hitters got hits... except for my team) - since my team actually got robbed of hits, then perforce that would further skew the rest of the league, meaning merry freakin xmas to the team or teams that collected the extra 28 hits my team didn't get compared to the average.I hope that clears up what I was trying to say earlier.
paulcaraccio
November 12, 2012 at 11:24PM View BBCode
that means you probably have defenders with below-average Range. But I still find it surprising that every other team in the league is on the plus-side. The season total for the one league I can see right now, for the entire league, is -294, so the average team is -18. I feel like that's the norm, you're saying in your league, the average team comes out ahead on plus-minus, and yours is the only team that's negative?
paulcaraccio
November 12, 2012 at 11:27PM View BBCode
hold up, i think you may be misunderstanding the stat. You say that your team "actually got robbed of hits", but I don't know how you can know that unless you've calculated it manually. There is no stat for +/- by hitting, only by fielding, so what makes you say your team has been robbed?
maxthesax
I do indeed keep track manually. You can tell when Abe decides to use the defensive +/- on a player when the description says "the ball gets by the 1st baseman for a double"; or "great play by the 1st baseman" - here's the thing... it's like the old strat o matic baseball where you have a card for hitters and a card for pitchers - the one used is determined by dice throw. In this case it's hitters and defenders. For example: a batter puts the ball in play. Abe decides that he's going to use the defender's defensive ability to determine whether the defender makes a play (robs the hitter) or lets the ball get through for a hit.
The statistic I'm quoting has NOTHING to do with MY team's defensive ability. On the contrary it only has to do with the defensive ability of the OTHER teams. As the league average (their overall plus minus) is for far more giveaways than takeaways - I feel that something is rotten in Denmark when my team consistently has more takeaways AGAINST them than giveaways.
In other words, the league's defense sucks - unless they are playing my team.
Does this clear things up?
[Edited on 11-19-2012 by maxthesax]
November 19, 2012 at 04:26PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
hold up, i think you may be misunderstanding the stat. You say that your team "actually got robbed of hits", but I don't know how you can know that unless you've calculated it manually. There is no stat for +/- by hitting, only by fielding, so what makes you say your team has been robbed?
I do indeed keep track manually. You can tell when Abe decides to use the defensive +/- on a player when the description says "the ball gets by the 1st baseman for a double"; or "great play by the 1st baseman" - here's the thing... it's like the old strat o matic baseball where you have a card for hitters and a card for pitchers - the one used is determined by dice throw. In this case it's hitters and defenders. For example: a batter puts the ball in play. Abe decides that he's going to use the defender's defensive ability to determine whether the defender makes a play (robs the hitter) or lets the ball get through for a hit.
The statistic I'm quoting has NOTHING to do with MY team's defensive ability. On the contrary it only has to do with the defensive ability of the OTHER teams. As the league average (their overall plus minus) is for far more giveaways than takeaways - I feel that something is rotten in Denmark when my team consistently has more takeaways AGAINST them than giveaways.
In other words, the league's defense sucks - unless they are playing my team.
Does this clear things up?
[Edited on 11-19-2012 by maxthesax]
paulcaraccio
December 03, 2012 at 10:02PM View BBCode
yeah i hear you now. Bad luck is the only possibility, it should turn around for you.
paulcaraccio
December 03, 2012 at 10:06PM View BBCode
unless the system is calculating incorrectly, that could be another possibility. I doubt that many other people have looked into it as deeply as you have, so it's certainly possible that nobody ever noticed the system may not be set up to calculate +/- correctly. Perhaps you should try to manually add up your defense's +/-, and verify it against what the stats page says...maybe you found a bug
tm4559
there are no actual plays being made. the first result is hit, out, or walk. the "ball" doesn't go anywhere. for a hit (a certain amount of the hits are selected as possibilites for +/- plays in the infield mostly, there are plus/minus plays in the outfield also, like "flies out, great play by the rightfielder to prevent a double" and that kind of thing) the "direction" of it, that is, the place where it "goes" is selected on probabilities based on where batted balls go in real life. then the range of the fielder goes into whether that is a plus or minus play.
(of course some outs are turned into bases, errors, by the same process but that has nothing to do with plus/minus).
the plus minus is just plain simple. the better the range of a given fielder, the better it will be. period. there are other considerations when it comes to total defense, that is, arms figure into throwing errors. that is outside plus minus, of course.
+/- is a thing that is kind of fun, if you truly pay attention and get the players with the range (and the proper arm strenth) to the proper positions, there is a payoff in it, it is not as important as how a player hits. but, in leagues where the margin grows thin, when there are three, four teams in a division close to the playoffs, it grows important. a team doesn't have to do everything the best to get there. if it does everything reasonably well though, pitch, hit and field? its going to have a decent chance.
December 14, 2012 at 03:37PM View BBCode
a minus play is a hit that might have been turned into an out by a more gifted defender. that does not mean its a gift. all fielders are not created equal. a minu play hit (singles past the second baseman, for example) is a legitimate hit. you can do the same analysis for the plus play.there are no actual plays being made. the first result is hit, out, or walk. the "ball" doesn't go anywhere. for a hit (a certain amount of the hits are selected as possibilites for +/- plays in the infield mostly, there are plus/minus plays in the outfield also, like "flies out, great play by the rightfielder to prevent a double" and that kind of thing) the "direction" of it, that is, the place where it "goes" is selected on probabilities based on where batted balls go in real life. then the range of the fielder goes into whether that is a plus or minus play.
(of course some outs are turned into bases, errors, by the same process but that has nothing to do with plus/minus).
the plus minus is just plain simple. the better the range of a given fielder, the better it will be. period. there are other considerations when it comes to total defense, that is, arms figure into throwing errors. that is outside plus minus, of course.
+/- is a thing that is kind of fun, if you truly pay attention and get the players with the range (and the proper arm strenth) to the proper positions, there is a payoff in it, it is not as important as how a player hits. but, in leagues where the margin grows thin, when there are three, four teams in a division close to the playoffs, it grows important. a team doesn't have to do everything the best to get there. if it does everything reasonably well though, pitch, hit and field? its going to have a decent chance.
maxthesax
exactly TM - we are saying the same thing in a different way - by having a good defensive player "making a play" on a batted ball, or conversely having a fielder with no range not getting to a batted ball, the net result is a hit for the batter.
What I continue to try to say is this: while the American League of the Dom Dimaggio league has had bad fielding overall since the inception of the +/-, my team, Baltimore, has had only 2 seasons in which they have received more hits than outs by this system (and yes, I keep track of this). For example this past season: the league had 2 teams with more "takeaways" than giveaways (in other words, their overall +/- rating was a + number), and the overall number for the 7 teams (cannot count my own team as I can't defense myself) was -166. That's 23.7 more hits than takeaways per team if all were equal. Baltimore had 106 hits taken away and received 111 gifts (where the fielder failed to make a play) - that's 5 extra hits received, which is a long way from 23.7. And this is as close as I've gotten to a fair shake since the inception - which makes me wonder why????
March 12, 2013 at 10:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
a minus play is a hit that might have been turned into an out by a more gifted defender. that does not mean its a gift. all fielders are not created equal. a minu play hit (singles past the second baseman, for example) is a legitimate hit. you can do the same analysis for the plus play.
there are no actual plays being made. the first result is hit, out, or walk. the "ball" doesn't go anywhere. for a hit (a certain amount of the hits are selected as possibilites for +/- plays in the infield mostly, there are plus/minus plays in the outfield also, like "flies out, great play by the rightfielder to prevent a double" and that kind of thing) the "direction" of it, that is, the place where it "goes" is selected on probabilities based on where batted balls go in real life. then the range of the fielder goes into whether that is a plus or minus play.
(of course some outs are turned into bases, errors, by the same process but that has nothing to do with plus/minus).
the plus minus is just plain simple. the better the range of a given fielder, the better it will be. period. there are other considerations when it comes to total defense, that is, arms figure into throwing errors. that is outside plus minus, of course.
+/- is a thing that is kind of fun, if you truly pay attention and get the players with the range (and the proper arm strenth) to the proper positions, there is a payoff in it, it is not as important as how a player hits. but, in leagues where the margin grows thin, when there are three, four teams in a division close to the playoffs, it grows important. a team doesn't have to do everything the best to get there. if it does everything reasonably well though, pitch, hit and field? its going to have a decent chance.
exactly TM - we are saying the same thing in a different way - by having a good defensive player "making a play" on a batted ball, or conversely having a fielder with no range not getting to a batted ball, the net result is a hit for the batter.
What I continue to try to say is this: while the American League of the Dom Dimaggio league has had bad fielding overall since the inception of the +/-, my team, Baltimore, has had only 2 seasons in which they have received more hits than outs by this system (and yes, I keep track of this). For example this past season: the league had 2 teams with more "takeaways" than giveaways (in other words, their overall +/- rating was a + number), and the overall number for the 7 teams (cannot count my own team as I can't defense myself) was -166. That's 23.7 more hits than takeaways per team if all were equal. Baltimore had 106 hits taken away and received 111 gifts (where the fielder failed to make a play) - that's 5 extra hits received, which is a long way from 23.7. And this is as close as I've gotten to a fair shake since the inception - which makes me wonder why????
paulcaraccio
but seriously, that sounds like an absolutely enormous undertaking, and mistakes will happen under those circumstances. You must be doing some errant calculating somewhere. There's no way that even a team with clearly terrible defensive ratings will consistently be far and away the worst every year for decades.
March 12, 2013 at 11:30PM View BBCode
i don't have an answer for you, but i gotta ask...you seriously read every line in every boxscore of every game in your league for entire seasons? and here i thought i was maniacally obsessed...but seriously, that sounds like an absolutely enormous undertaking, and mistakes will happen under those circumstances. You must be doing some errant calculating somewhere. There's no way that even a team with clearly terrible defensive ratings will consistently be far and away the worst every year for decades.
maxthesax
I do NOT read every play by play for every game played by every team - but I DO read the play by play for MY team (it's a lot more fun than just looking to see that your team won or lost).
That being said - I therefore KNOW how many hits have been taken away, or gifted to my players. On the flip side, I look at the overall statistic compiled by ABE for each team defensively (just the same as you can look up how many errors a team commits, or double plays, etc , you can look up their overall +/-). This gives me the data I need to compile the league average (last season the 7 teams in question were: +21, +7, -20,-33, -36, -37 and -68 ... equaling a -166 for the league sans Baltimore's contribution. 166 divided by 7 = 23.7 hence the stat I'm basing my stuff on: 23.7 vs 5... and this has been the closest year to equality since the inception of +/-.
So, unless ABE has been misreporting each team's overall +/- every year, (the only way to find out would indeed be to chart every single game played by all teams) - I still have to wonder why I consistently get the fuzzy end of the lollypop (to quote Marilyn Monroe).
March 13, 2013 at 10:11PM View BBCode
Hi Paul,I do NOT read every play by play for every game played by every team - but I DO read the play by play for MY team (it's a lot more fun than just looking to see that your team won or lost).
That being said - I therefore KNOW how many hits have been taken away, or gifted to my players. On the flip side, I look at the overall statistic compiled by ABE for each team defensively (just the same as you can look up how many errors a team commits, or double plays, etc , you can look up their overall +/-). This gives me the data I need to compile the league average (last season the 7 teams in question were: +21, +7, -20,-33, -36, -37 and -68 ... equaling a -166 for the league sans Baltimore's contribution. 166 divided by 7 = 23.7 hence the stat I'm basing my stuff on: 23.7 vs 5... and this has been the closest year to equality since the inception of +/-.
So, unless ABE has been misreporting each team's overall +/- every year, (the only way to find out would indeed be to chart every single game played by all teams) - I still have to wonder why I consistently get the fuzzy end of the lollypop (to quote Marilyn Monroe).
paulcaraccio
March 13, 2013 at 11:05PM View BBCode
yeah you should definitely chart another team or several...must be a bugPages: 1