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DougB
Consider this for a pitching season...
17.6 wins
8.3 losses
2.86 era
227 IP
237 K's
what would you think of Kershaw averaging those numbers for the next 5 years? I'd say that if he stays healthy he'd have a very good chance to average those numbers. I mean... that would be a regression for him. It might be tough for him to get there on wins-losses. But if the Dodgers keep spending and Puig and some of the other kids develop well I'd say he could do it. K's might also be a near miss. Pitchers often start dropping their K rate in their late 20's.
but if he does average that pace for the rest of 2013 and for the next 5 seasons after. and then retires...
he will finish with the exact same total of Wins, Losses, K's, IP, and exact same ERA as Sandy at the same age. and so far Kershaw would be able to say he did it in a higher scoring era.
Koufax vs. Kershaw
August 02, 2013 at 02:05PM View BBCode
I know a lot of people consider it blasphemy to say another player is as good as the left arm of god. But I found something interesting just going through the numbers.Consider this for a pitching season...
17.6 wins
8.3 losses
2.86 era
227 IP
237 K's
what would you think of Kershaw averaging those numbers for the next 5 years? I'd say that if he stays healthy he'd have a very good chance to average those numbers. I mean... that would be a regression for him. It might be tough for him to get there on wins-losses. But if the Dodgers keep spending and Puig and some of the other kids develop well I'd say he could do it. K's might also be a near miss. Pitchers often start dropping their K rate in their late 20's.
but if he does average that pace for the rest of 2013 and for the next 5 seasons after. and then retires...
he will finish with the exact same total of Wins, Losses, K's, IP, and exact same ERA as Sandy at the same age. and so far Kershaw would be able to say he did it in a higher scoring era.
tworoosters
It's that last five years of utter dominance that are Koufax's greatness, his overall numbers are not the issue .
Kershaw's a great young pitcher, two ERA & whip titles before his 25th birthday show that but I doubt we'll ever see a pitcher roll off the type of 5 year stretch Koufax finished with.
August 02, 2013 at 03:05PM View BBCode
Kershaw is currently well ahead of Koufax, but you have to remember Koufax's last five years were his most dominating. Over his last five seasons Koufax went 111-34 with an ERA of 1.95, a whip of 0.926, averaged 275 innings per year and pitched ..........100 complete games.It's that last five years of utter dominance that are Koufax's greatness, his overall numbers are not the issue .
Kershaw's a great young pitcher, two ERA & whip titles before his 25th birthday show that but I doubt we'll ever see a pitcher roll off the type of 5 year stretch Koufax finished with.
DougB
I'm saying it is very possible for Kershaw to end with the EXACT same career stats as Koufax in a tougher pitching environment.
I agree... Kershaw would be hard pressed to have the kind of peak seasons Sandy had. But you can slice it however you want, and at the end of the day, if Kershaw retires at age 30 with a 165-87 record, 2.76 ERA, 2396 K's in 2324 Innings it would be hard to argue Koufax had a better overall body of work with his 165-87 record, 2.76 ERA, 2396 K's in 2324 Innings considering he pitched from a higher mound back in the mid-60's when offense was lower.
Stats can be argued many ways. Consider this stat:
20 win seasons:
Koufax ---- 3
Spahn --- 13
Certainly that's slanted. But it's also fact.
I get what you're saying... I don't really disagree. I just find it interesting that it's looking very possible that Koufax and Kershaw could have almost identical numbers through age 30.
August 02, 2013 at 03:32PM View BBCode
But for 5 years Koufax was average or worse.I'm saying it is very possible for Kershaw to end with the EXACT same career stats as Koufax in a tougher pitching environment.
I agree... Kershaw would be hard pressed to have the kind of peak seasons Sandy had. But you can slice it however you want, and at the end of the day, if Kershaw retires at age 30 with a 165-87 record, 2.76 ERA, 2396 K's in 2324 Innings it would be hard to argue Koufax had a better overall body of work with his 165-87 record, 2.76 ERA, 2396 K's in 2324 Innings considering he pitched from a higher mound back in the mid-60's when offense was lower.
Stats can be argued many ways. Consider this stat:
20 win seasons:
Koufax ---- 3
Spahn --- 13
Certainly that's slanted. But it's also fact.
I get what you're saying... I don't really disagree. I just find it interesting that it's looking very possible that Koufax and Kershaw could have almost identical numbers through age 30.
DougB
August 02, 2013 at 03:45PM View BBCode
the Spahn-Koufax thing of course gets into the whole "which mountain is more impressive" argument. Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano or Mount Everest. One is widest, one is tallest. And both are kick ass mountains.
dirtdevil
I don't think i'd go so far as 'very possible'. it hinges on him maintaining health and maintaining skill for another 5 years. that's not at all a given, or even easy- ask the tigers and verlander, or the giants and lincecum. i'd say it's actually pretty unlikely that Kershaw will be able to do it. the fact that we're even consider it as a possibility is a testament to his talent and if he does, i'd be the first to acclaim him for it, but it's a long shot.
August 02, 2013 at 04:07PM View BBCode
Originally posted by DougB
I get what you're saying... I don't really disagree. I just find it interesting that it's looking very possible that Koufax and Kershaw could have almost identical numbers through age 30.
I don't think i'd go so far as 'very possible'. it hinges on him maintaining health and maintaining skill for another 5 years. that's not at all a given, or even easy- ask the tigers and verlander, or the giants and lincecum. i'd say it's actually pretty unlikely that Kershaw will be able to do it. the fact that we're even consider it as a possibility is a testament to his talent and if he does, i'd be the first to acclaim him for it, but it's a long shot.
DougB
I guess the wins might be toughest. The fact that he's 10-6 this year with a 1.87 ERA tells you how fickle wins can be.
He's on pace to crush Koufax in league adjusted ERA and beat him in wins above replacement anyway.
August 02, 2013 at 04:32PM View BBCode
you don't think he can average 17.6 wins, 237 K's and a 2.86 ERA?I guess the wins might be toughest. The fact that he's 10-6 this year with a 1.87 ERA tells you how fickle wins can be.
He's on pace to crush Koufax in league adjusted ERA and beat him in wins above replacement anyway.
tm4559
and then retired because he was not sure if he could learn to shave right handed.
August 02, 2013 at 04:55PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
Over his last five seasons Koufax went 111-34 with an ERA of 1.95, a whip of 0.926, averaged 275 innings per year and pitched ..........100 complete games.
and then retired because he was not sure if he could learn to shave right handed.
dirtdevil
do I think it's possible he'll do that for another 5 years? sure. do I think it's likely? no. there's reason Koufax is a legend. what he did is really, really, really hard.
August 02, 2013 at 05:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by DougB
you don't think he can average 17.6 wins, 237 K's and a 2.86 ERA?
do I think it's possible he'll do that for another 5 years? sure. do I think it's likely? no. there's reason Koufax is a legend. what he did is really, really, really hard.
DougB
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
(if you sort by 7 best seasons though he jumps to 55th best because you get to ignore some of his crap pitching.)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
August 02, 2013 at 09:30PM View BBCode
True. He was great. Which is why Baseball-Reference.com has him as the 85th most qualified pitcher for the hall of fame, behind Tim Hudson.http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
(if you sort by 7 best seasons though he jumps to 55th best because you get to ignore some of his crap pitching.)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml
dirtdevil
August 02, 2013 at 09:43PM View BBCode
sometimes the career numbers don't tell the entire story. as was said earlier, Koufax is in on the absolutely crazy seasons of his 5 year prime: 111-34 with an ERA of 1.95, a whip of 0.926, averaged 275 innings per year and pitched ..........100 complete games. that's why Koufax is in the hall. if Kershaw can come anywhere close to that (he won't), he'll go in too.
LTJaeger
None of this is to minimize Kershaw's skill or accomplishments; it's just to add to the previous comments about why Koufax is in the Hall and why his reputation goes far beyond his career numbers. I mean, the guy tipped off his pitches, and still went 27-9, 1.73 with a bad arm.
August 12, 2013 at 07:26AM View BBCode
For those five seasons, Koufax was absolutely, positively, undeniably THE dominant pitcher in the game. Spahn, Gibson, Drysdale, Marichal and Ford were all pitching at the time, and no one considered any of them to be the best out there. And while this may be a time of greater offense, Koufax' time was of fewer strikeouts, so the K records carried added impact. There's also the four no-hitters issue, in a period of fewer no hit games.None of this is to minimize Kershaw's skill or accomplishments; it's just to add to the previous comments about why Koufax is in the Hall and why his reputation goes far beyond his career numbers. I mean, the guy tipped off his pitches, and still went 27-9, 1.73 with a bad arm.
tm4559
i think everybody considered bob gibson the best out there in 1968, and 1962, 64-66, and 69-70 and 72 weren't too doggone bad either. and then there are those eight complete games in the world series to the tune of a 7-2 record.
(and he had six saves, wow. lol)
but Koufax is in the Hall because he was plain great for five or six seasons, and rightfully so. that is what the Hall should recognize. greatness. five or six seasons is plenty long enough, ITS A FREAKING CAREER. the Hall has more than its share of lifetime stat padders.
(i mean, if you believe era+, koufax's "crap pitching" seems to be confined to 1956 (82) and 1958 (93) and those two seasons combined were about 216 innings. he had three seasons right around 100, which seems to be a thing pretty easy to forgive in a HOF pitcher. since he was finished by a bad arm, the writers seem to have forgiven him also for being........human.)
August 12, 2013 at 04:10PM View BBCode
Originally posted by LTJaeger
For those five seasons, Koufax was absolutely, positively, undeniably THE dominant pitcher in the game. Spahn, Gibson, Drysdale, Marichal and Ford were all pitching at the time, and no one considered any of them to be the best out there.
i think everybody considered bob gibson the best out there in 1968, and 1962, 64-66, and 69-70 and 72 weren't too doggone bad either. and then there are those eight complete games in the world series to the tune of a 7-2 record.
(and he had six saves, wow. lol)
but Koufax is in the Hall because he was plain great for five or six seasons, and rightfully so. that is what the Hall should recognize. greatness. five or six seasons is plenty long enough, ITS A FREAKING CAREER. the Hall has more than its share of lifetime stat padders.
(i mean, if you believe era+, koufax's "crap pitching" seems to be confined to 1956 (82) and 1958 (93) and those two seasons combined were about 216 innings. he had three seasons right around 100, which seems to be a thing pretty easy to forgive in a HOF pitcher. since he was finished by a bad arm, the writers seem to have forgiven him also for being........human.)
DougB
it's because of the K's, the injury legend, the retirement, and the no-hitters. a lot of it is the "what might have been" I suppose.
he's not over rated if you consider Koufax to have been one of the 20 best pitchers for a short peak, and one of the 60 best all-time overall. It's just that often he's considered #1 and top 10 on those lists.
During those famed 5 seasons... WAR for pitchers:
Koufax 40.9
Marichal 37.0
Again, he WAS the best then. But not exactly light years better than everyone else.
August 12, 2013 at 04:17PM View BBCode
he was great. but he gets too much credit really because of his peak. but even then... he wasn't as dominant as many people make it out. he won 20 games 3 times. he lead the NL in WAR for pitchers twice. Robin Roberts did BOTH for 5 straight seasons. Many others have similar and even a few have possibly better peaks than Koufax.it's because of the K's, the injury legend, the retirement, and the no-hitters. a lot of it is the "what might have been" I suppose.
he's not over rated if you consider Koufax to have been one of the 20 best pitchers for a short peak, and one of the 60 best all-time overall. It's just that often he's considered #1 and top 10 on those lists.
During those famed 5 seasons... WAR for pitchers:
Koufax 40.9
Marichal 37.0
Again, he WAS the best then. But not exactly light years better than everyone else.
tworoosters
He lead the league in ERA in each of those five years, he lead the league in WHIP in four of those five years, he lead, or was 2nd, in the league in Ks per 9 innings pitched and hits per nine innings pitched in each of those five years.
In an era when only one Cy Young award was awarded for the major leagues he won three, all unanimously, he also won an MVP. Koufax dominated, period.
Also I've never seen a list that had Koufax as the best pitcher in MLB history.
August 12, 2013 at 06:19PM View BBCode
During his five years of dominance Koufax went 111-34 with an ERA of 1.95, a whip of 0.926, averaged 275 innings per year and pitched 100 complete games.He lead the league in ERA in each of those five years, he lead the league in WHIP in four of those five years, he lead, or was 2nd, in the league in Ks per 9 innings pitched and hits per nine innings pitched in each of those five years.
In an era when only one Cy Young award was awarded for the major leagues he won three, all unanimously, he also won an MVP. Koufax dominated, period.
Also I've never seen a list that had Koufax as the best pitcher in MLB history.
tm4559
August 12, 2013 at 08:03PM View BBCode
also, his induction speech was a marvel of simplicity and most of all, brevity. brav.............O.
eragon
August 13, 2013 at 02:06AM View BBCode
WAR sucks. Koufax is in the Hall because he arguably had the most dominant 5 year span for any pitcher ever.
tworoosters
A) the replacement players actually existed
B) they could decide on a single formula
August 13, 2013 at 06:15AM View BBCode
I'd be happier about WAR if:A) the replacement players actually existed
B) they could decide on a single formula
eragon
Thank you!!! My thoughts exactly. Player A is 5 wins better than a replacement player except that the replacement player is imaginary!
August 13, 2013 at 06:48AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
I'd be happier about WAR if:
A) the replacement players actually existed
B) they could decide on a single formula
Thank you!!! My thoughts exactly. Player A is 5 wins better than a replacement player except that the replacement player is imaginary!
DougB
It looks like he wins his 3rd Cy Young in a landslide this season and likely wins the MVP despite missing a month of the season.
So, with 4 years until he reaches the age when Koufax retired, here is what he needs to average over the next 4 years to finish with the exact same stats as Koufax:
16.8 wins
9.5 losses
3.17 ERA
236 IP
238 K's
and here is what he has averaged for the last 4 years:
18 wins
6.5 losses
2.11 ERA
224 IP
237 K's
so yeah... it is looking more and more likely that he will finish with stats as good or better than Koufax by age 30, the same age when Koufax retired, and doing it in a tougher pitching environment. (average ERA when Koufax pitched was about 3.60, while it is about 3.90 for Kershaw's career)
unless he has a major injury, Kershaw may slightly miss on innings and K's, but he'll blow him away on ERA.
September 25, 2014 at 01:12PM View BBCode
Update:It looks like he wins his 3rd Cy Young in a landslide this season and likely wins the MVP despite missing a month of the season.
So, with 4 years until he reaches the age when Koufax retired, here is what he needs to average over the next 4 years to finish with the exact same stats as Koufax:
16.8 wins
9.5 losses
3.17 ERA
236 IP
238 K's
and here is what he has averaged for the last 4 years:
18 wins
6.5 losses
2.11 ERA
224 IP
237 K's
so yeah... it is looking more and more likely that he will finish with stats as good or better than Koufax by age 30, the same age when Koufax retired, and doing it in a tougher pitching environment. (average ERA when Koufax pitched was about 3.60, while it is about 3.90 for Kershaw's career)
unless he has a major injury, Kershaw may slightly miss on innings and K's, but he'll blow him away on ERA.
dirtdevil
September 25, 2014 at 03:17PM View BBCode
four years is a long time and "unless he has a major injury" is a pretty large thing to gloss over. again, I love Kershaw. I think he's amazing. he might get to Koufax's numbers. but he might blow his arm out next week and never be the same again. and as we've said, Koufax isn't all about the numbers.
dirtdevil
I mean, one night doesn't define a career, obviously. but Kershaw gave up more earned runs in one inning than Koufax did in his entire post season career.
October 04, 2014 at 01:53PM View BBCode
so, about that Koufax comparison....:saint:I mean, one night doesn't define a career, obviously. but Kershaw gave up more earned runs in one inning than Koufax did in his entire post season career.
tm4559
October 04, 2014 at 10:07PM View BBCode
anyway, kershaw can only be as good as koufax, if he dominates after he messes up his arm.Pages: 1 2