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RichNYC1
[url=http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/]Link to Article[/url]
[Edited on 10/04/06 by RichNYC1]
Pass Atlas Map
August 10, 2014 at 08:52PM View BBCode
Found this great info from Grantland (podcast home of the funniest guys in sports, Men in Blazers). This is a breakdown on passing zones and shows us the difference between what we are doing and how the NFL game is played. As you can see from the charts below we throw long about 5-7 times as much as the pros. Additionally completion %´s for these throws, which is about the same as what we see, should be significantly lower due to the number of times we try it (which should key the defense). Now that all teams are manned I think you will see the completion % of 20+ yard throws raise significantly.[url=http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/]Link to Article[/url]
[Edited on 10/04/06 by RichNYC1]
RichNYC1 has attached this image:
RichNYC1
August 10, 2014 at 09:01PM View BBCode
Here are the completion ratesRichNYC1 has attached this image:
RichNYC1
August 10, 2014 at 09:13PM View BBCode
Here is the breakdown of where and how often throws are made.RichNYC1 has attached this image:
RichNYC1
[url=https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/]Link - Adjusted Completion %[/url]
August 10, 2014 at 09:39PM View BBCode
Here is a great piece about Throws By Zone. Again, nobody throws 20+ even 90 times in a season, much less 220 or more times. I think if we could figure out how to get this under control the game will look right.[url=https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/20/adot-adjusted-completion-percentage/]Link - Adjusted Completion %[/url]
sjpode
Good work Rich. Way to prove a point. If you look at pay leagues, you can see the point being made almost every week. Scoring is getting really high. Very seldom do you see a run, grind it out game anymore. No system is perfect, but the tune ups are getting better all the time.
August 11, 2014 at 01:56AM View BBCode
That was really eye opening.Good work Rich. Way to prove a point. If you look at pay leagues, you can see the point being made almost every week. Scoring is getting really high. Very seldom do you see a run, grind it out game anymore. No system is perfect, but the tune ups are getting better all the time.
Admin
Thank you so much for these charts, I hadn't seen them before... very useful!
Chris
August 11, 2014 at 04:45AM View BBCode
The long game is turned down in Beta... I hope at least a couple of owners DO try to adopt a long passing strategy. Now, if they have a QB with maxed out Power and Accuracy and high Execution, then they will be able to complete more long passes, but those guys should be rare.Thank you so much for these charts, I hadn't seen them before... very useful!
Chris
casperthegm
August 11, 2014 at 10:58AM View BBCode
I'm playing with a deep pass offense in Beta. I'll keep an eye out and see how the stats play out this coming season.
RichNYC1
Thats interesting because there a dearth of QB´s in Beta. There are only 4 guys with THP of at least 90.
August 11, 2014 at 12:42PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
The long game is turned down in Beta... I hope at least a couple of owners DO try to adopt a long passing strategy. Now, if they have a QB with maxed out Power and Accuracy and high Execution, then they will be able to complete more long passes, but those guys should be rare.
Thank you so much for these charts, I hadn't seen them before... very useful!
Chris
Thats interesting because there a dearth of QB´s in Beta. There are only 4 guys with THP of at least 90.
jaspiese81
August 11, 2014 at 10:22PM View BBCode
I mean what is the interception rate of balls that are 20+? Is it higher than short passes? Is the sim set up to reflect whatever the reality is? Cause it would seem the deterrent to deep passes is Turnovers. (Though you can argue they're not as bad as it would seem. since a 40+ pass that is picked is basically a punt. )
EdSales87
Unless it happens on 1st Down.
August 12, 2014 at 01:15PM View BBCode
Originally posted by jaspiese81
Though you can argue they're not as bad as it would seem. since a 40+ pass that is picked is basically a punt.
Unless it happens on 1st Down.
RichNYC1
I think the eventual solution will be intelligence of the Engine. One tool that we have right now is the "check-down" which, if I understand it correctly, basically limits the each QB individually based on his personal Aggression Attribute. Simply put, the more aggressive the QB the more chances he will take with the ball. I have always felt that the more aggressive the better, but I know others disagree with that opinion.
For me I think the that the Engine needs to exert even more control over the passing decisions. I know that takes control away from the user, which no one wants, but I think if done correctly it could allow the user a different form of control. My thought it is put more emphasis on the following:
Defensive EXE- This matters in real life especially when it comes to defensive reads and how the back 7 play Zone. Defensive players by nature are required to "read and react", so either lowing the Execution requirements or creating higher Execution defensive players and placing greater importance on EXE in the Engine´s play decision process could act to tamp down the QB´s decision to make so many long throws. Additionally I would love to see some sort of "group EXE bonus" for secondaries that play together for a long time. I realize that may be asking a lot, but defenses develop together in real life, it would be great if that could be figured out.
Increase the Impact of the Defenders Skills in the Calculated Completion Rate- Especailly at CB. Games are won and lost faster at QB and CB than any other position. If you have top CB´s they should make a difference compared to lesser players. If we could raise the impact of the players based on their skills in how the completion rate is calculated it would benefit the best defenders while giving the offense the advantage against lesser players.
Change Injury Effect - Right now injuries are totally random, How many times does the QB get injured handing off? Why does he never get hurt on a sack? I understand this would require a change in the way the engine handles injuries but players are, and should be, more susceptible to injury in certain situations, like QB sacks, WR´s going over the middle etc. Right now QB´s can throw deep all day and WR´s cross the middle, consistently creating missed tackles, with no downside. Do either of those things in the pros and you´d better have a deep bench. If we put injury onus on over usage and you will see the over usage decline.
Make tackling better by limiting missed tackles per player- The missed tackles are way out of line. I looked at missed tackles, NFL teams average 6 misses per game, [url=http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1285417-power-ranking-the-nfls-worst-tacklers/page/2](Missed Tackles Page)[/url] but it´s not the same guy all the time. I couldnt find the stat but the leader in missed tackles for the Jets last season had 6 misses. You can see 6 misses by the same LB on a WR per game game here. Again great tackle breakers are gonna make defenders miss, but it´s too easy right now.
Lastly, and I think this might be what Chris is thinking. We need to get away from, its a pass defense or its a run defense, and if the defense guessing wrong its immediately at a disadvantage. Defenses may overload in short yardage or play loose on 2nd and 3rd and long but they are prepared in most cases for just about anything. I would hope we could change the way the Engine weighs the impact of the defensive play call when calculating the success of each play.
August 12, 2014 at 05:24PM View BBCode
The problem we have is that as much as we want the game to be a true simulation its very hard to accomplish because it needs to be interesting before all other things. So what happens if teams just sit back and bomb? 5, 10 interceptions a game? Thats not realistic either. I think any time you try to balance one inconsistency with another you end up getting even further out of whack.I think the eventual solution will be intelligence of the Engine. One tool that we have right now is the "check-down" which, if I understand it correctly, basically limits the each QB individually based on his personal Aggression Attribute. Simply put, the more aggressive the QB the more chances he will take with the ball. I have always felt that the more aggressive the better, but I know others disagree with that opinion.
For me I think the that the Engine needs to exert even more control over the passing decisions. I know that takes control away from the user, which no one wants, but I think if done correctly it could allow the user a different form of control. My thought it is put more emphasis on the following:
Defensive EXE- This matters in real life especially when it comes to defensive reads and how the back 7 play Zone. Defensive players by nature are required to "read and react", so either lowing the Execution requirements or creating higher Execution defensive players and placing greater importance on EXE in the Engine´s play decision process could act to tamp down the QB´s decision to make so many long throws. Additionally I would love to see some sort of "group EXE bonus" for secondaries that play together for a long time. I realize that may be asking a lot, but defenses develop together in real life, it would be great if that could be figured out.
Increase the Impact of the Defenders Skills in the Calculated Completion Rate- Especailly at CB. Games are won and lost faster at QB and CB than any other position. If you have top CB´s they should make a difference compared to lesser players. If we could raise the impact of the players based on their skills in how the completion rate is calculated it would benefit the best defenders while giving the offense the advantage against lesser players.
Change Injury Effect - Right now injuries are totally random, How many times does the QB get injured handing off? Why does he never get hurt on a sack? I understand this would require a change in the way the engine handles injuries but players are, and should be, more susceptible to injury in certain situations, like QB sacks, WR´s going over the middle etc. Right now QB´s can throw deep all day and WR´s cross the middle, consistently creating missed tackles, with no downside. Do either of those things in the pros and you´d better have a deep bench. If we put injury onus on over usage and you will see the over usage decline.
Make tackling better by limiting missed tackles per player- The missed tackles are way out of line. I looked at missed tackles, NFL teams average 6 misses per game, [url=http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1285417-power-ranking-the-nfls-worst-tacklers/page/2](Missed Tackles Page)[/url] but it´s not the same guy all the time. I couldnt find the stat but the leader in missed tackles for the Jets last season had 6 misses. You can see 6 misses by the same LB on a WR per game game here. Again great tackle breakers are gonna make defenders miss, but it´s too easy right now.
Lastly, and I think this might be what Chris is thinking. We need to get away from, its a pass defense or its a run defense, and if the defense guessing wrong its immediately at a disadvantage. Defenses may overload in short yardage or play loose on 2nd and 3rd and long but they are prepared in most cases for just about anything. I would hope we could change the way the Engine weighs the impact of the defensive play call when calculating the success of each play.
Admin
The game was creating way too many guys with maxed out throw power so that was turned down a notch. It may be down too low now, but those guys should be rare.
Chris
August 14, 2014 at 07:23AM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
Thats interesting because there a dearth of QB´s in Beta. There are only 4 guys with THP of at least 90.
The game was creating way too many guys with maxed out throw power so that was turned down a notch. It may be down too low now, but those guys should be rare.
Chris
Admin
There is not a simple answer to that as there are so many variables in the math. It delends on the formations and plays that are happening, but a deep prevent against a long pass has probably three times the normal interception rate on average.
Chris
August 14, 2014 at 07:25AM View BBCode
Originally posted by jaspiese81
I mean what is the interception rate of balls that are 20+? Is it higher than short passes? Is the sim set up to reflect whatever the reality is? Cause it would seem the deterrent to deep passes is Turnovers. (Though you can argue they're not as bad as it would seem. since a 40+ pass that is picked is basically a punt. )
There is not a simple answer to that as there are so many variables in the math. It delends on the formations and plays that are happening, but a deep prevent against a long pass has probably three times the normal interception rate on average.
Chris
Admin
I like about A- for Aggressiveness; above this and the QB is throwing in traffic too much. I should make it more clear when Aggressiveness drives a pass decision, but again this is something that should only be revealed to the offense owner.
Interesting ideas in here.
Again, not just the math but communicating that. What football needs is plus/minus plays like baseball. There is already one example: the "spectacular catch" is an incomplete that was turned into a completion specifically because of the receiver's skills.
They are not completely random. QB's do have a bigger chance of injury on a sack. The WR making a catch is at more risk than the other WR's who aren't. The player being tackled (and his tackler) are at higher risk than the random CB covering a receiver that isn't thrown to. But the idea of increasing injury risk based on pass location is very interesting, I'll have to see if I can find some data for this.
Thank you for the link!
This already happens; what I am going to do as I revise the game is to make these decisions player by player rather than the whole team at once. For example, on a play action pass, the sim decides the extent to which the defense is fooled, but either the entire defense is fooled or the entire defense is not fooled. I want to change this so each defender tracks the ball carrier individually, and not all of them may always have the correct information. The tricky part again is communicating this to the owners without growing the database massively or making the play-by-play tediously long.
-Chris
August 14, 2014 at 07:39AM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
Simply put, the more aggressive the QB the more chances he will take with the ball. I have always felt that the more aggressive the better, but I know others disagree with that opinion.
I like about A- for Aggressiveness; above this and the QB is throwing in traffic too much. I should make it more clear when Aggressiveness drives a pass decision, but again this is something that should only be revealed to the offense owner.
Defensive EXE- This matters in real life especially when it comes to defensive reads and how the back 7 play Zone. Defensive players by nature are required to "read and react", so either lowing the Execution requirements or creating higher Execution defensive players and placing greater importance on EXE in the Engine´s play decision process could act to tamp down the QB´s decision to make so many long throws. Additionally I would love to see some sort of "group EXE bonus" for secondaries that play together for a long time. I realize that may be asking a lot, but defenses develop together in real life, it would be great if that could be figured out.
Interesting ideas in here.
Increase the Impact of the Defenders Skills in the Calculated Completion Rate- Especailly at CB. Games are won and lost faster at QB and CB than any other position. If you have top CB´s they should make a difference compared to lesser players. If we could raise the impact of the players based on their skills in how the completion rate is calculated it would benefit the best defenders while giving the offense the advantage against lesser players.
Again, not just the math but communicating that. What football needs is plus/minus plays like baseball. There is already one example: the "spectacular catch" is an incomplete that was turned into a completion specifically because of the receiver's skills.
Change Injury Effect - Right now injuries are totally random, How many times does the QB get injured handing off? Why does he never get hurt on a sack? I understand this would require a change in the way the engine handles injuries but players are, and should be, more susceptible to injury in certain situations, like QB sacks, WR´s going over the middle etc. Right now QB´s can throw deep all day and WR´s cross the middle, consistently creating missed tackles, with no downside. Do either of those things in the pros and you´d better have a deep bench. If we put injury onus on over usage and you will see the over usage decline.
They are not completely random. QB's do have a bigger chance of injury on a sack. The WR making a catch is at more risk than the other WR's who aren't. The player being tackled (and his tackler) are at higher risk than the random CB covering a receiver that isn't thrown to. But the idea of increasing injury risk based on pass location is very interesting, I'll have to see if I can find some data for this.
Make tackling better by limiting missed tackles per player- The missed tackles are way out of line. I looked at missed tackles, NFL teams average 6 misses per game, [url=http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1285417-power-ranking-the-nfls-worst-tacklers/page/2](Missed Tackles Page)[/url] but it´s not the same guy all the time. I couldnt find the stat but the leader in missed tackles for the Jets last season had 6 misses. You can see 6 misses by the same LB on a WR per game game here. Again great tackle breakers are gonna make defenders miss, but it´s too easy right now.
Thank you for the link!
Lastly, and I think this might be what Chris is thinking. We need to get away from, its a pass defense or its a run defense, and if the defense guessing wrong its immediately at a disadvantage. Defenses may overload in short yardage or play loose on 2nd and 3rd and long but they are prepared in most cases for just about anything. I would hope we could change the way the Engine weighs the impact of the defensive play call when calculating the success of each play.
This already happens; what I am going to do as I revise the game is to make these decisions player by player rather than the whole team at once. For example, on a play action pass, the sim decides the extent to which the defense is fooled, but either the entire defense is fooled or the entire defense is not fooled. I want to change this so each defender tracks the ball carrier individually, and not all of them may always have the correct information. The tricky part again is communicating this to the owners without growing the database massively or making the play-by-play tediously long.
-Chris
casperthegm
Missed tackle one is one that drives me crazy. I think there are too many- But I think some of the less experienced owners, or owners who never seem to catch on, don't realize how important agility is. If you have poor owners starting low agility db's it's going to skew the stats for missed tackles even more. But still, I agree it is considerably higher than it should be overall and it would be nice to see that addressed.
August 14, 2014 at 12:11PM View BBCode
Good thread. Chris, thanks for addressing each of these issues.Missed tackle one is one that drives me crazy. I think there are too many- But I think some of the less experienced owners, or owners who never seem to catch on, don't realize how important agility is. If you have poor owners starting low agility db's it's going to skew the stats for missed tackles even more. But still, I agree it is considerably higher than it should be overall and it would be nice to see that addressed.
Hodor
1. (Coach) Decision making is a huge difference between Sim and RL.
You can't just expect similar game play / game results because the decision-making process we have are different.
Going for it in 4th down for instance... in real life nobody does it, and if you do it since that's so out of the norm, it's a huge risk:
If you fail --> you're destroyed by the media --> fans love to follow the lead of the media --> GMs love to follow the lead of media and fans --> you're out of the job.
In the sim if you fail --> you gave up the ball to the opponent --> no one cares.
Throwing deep despite injuries and interceptions may be absurd in real life, but not necessarily in the sim.
1b. Not all of us find it desirable to stick to game plans and game styles so similar to those we watch every week in the NFL or in College or in the CFL.
Unless we start risking losing our teams for bad performances / bad decisions, I don't see why would I want to make conservative (as in similar to real life) game decisions.
2. Real life teams are managed WAY better than any team in the Sim.
In real life you have a whole team of coaches and scouts and software and what not analyzing your whole season rivals, they're doing it as a full time job and they have weeks to prepare for every single game, not to mention lots of adjustments mid-game.
In here, you have a couple of hours(?) at best, usually much much less than that to make a couple of touch ups to your game plan yourself, and not always have the time to make adjustments mid game.
You can't really expect that the results MUST be that similar to those in real life.
3. Those "big offenses" and "deep passes" are in no way unstoppable.
Several owners perform great against those teams (against any team, actually), so the flaw is -again- NOT in AFE, but in the team's management.
If this were real life, I would've already appointed Rich's or Dirt's or Phen0m's or Bo's or many other secondary coaches or defensive line coaches as my Defensive Coordinator a long time ago, and the same would've done many other owners.
Because they STOP those big offenses most of the time.
Then, we all would be stopping those offenses on a regular basis and offenses would have to come up with something different.
But no.
We can't do that, so while only a few managers have figured it out how to perform great on offense or defense, you can't expect to have similar numbers to NFL.
In real life, coaching trees make the league a lot more even and we don't have that in here.
---
Suggestion:
Performance report.
If you do this, you(AFE)'ll know how many times each defensive player was fooled and some other factors (how bad he was fooled, how big of an impact had his hits and misses, etc...).
Then you could "grade" the player's performance in the match. (Either with letters or in a 1-10 scale).
Then you could display that performance report to each owner, either at the end of each quarter or at the end of the game. You could display it in the Stats menu, there could be a performance report field along with the Team Drills and the Improvement Report.
August 14, 2014 at 01:41PM View BBCode
I haven't had too much time lately to devote it to the game/forums, just want to say a couple of things related to this issues:1. (Coach) Decision making is a huge difference between Sim and RL.
You can't just expect similar game play / game results because the decision-making process we have are different.
Going for it in 4th down for instance... in real life nobody does it, and if you do it since that's so out of the norm, it's a huge risk:
If you fail --> you're destroyed by the media --> fans love to follow the lead of the media --> GMs love to follow the lead of media and fans --> you're out of the job.
In the sim if you fail --> you gave up the ball to the opponent --> no one cares.
Throwing deep despite injuries and interceptions may be absurd in real life, but not necessarily in the sim.
1b. Not all of us find it desirable to stick to game plans and game styles so similar to those we watch every week in the NFL or in College or in the CFL.
Unless we start risking losing our teams for bad performances / bad decisions, I don't see why would I want to make conservative (as in similar to real life) game decisions.
2. Real life teams are managed WAY better than any team in the Sim.
In real life you have a whole team of coaches and scouts and software and what not analyzing your whole season rivals, they're doing it as a full time job and they have weeks to prepare for every single game, not to mention lots of adjustments mid-game.
In here, you have a couple of hours(?) at best, usually much much less than that to make a couple of touch ups to your game plan yourself, and not always have the time to make adjustments mid game.
You can't really expect that the results MUST be that similar to those in real life.
3. Those "big offenses" and "deep passes" are in no way unstoppable.
Several owners perform great against those teams (against any team, actually), so the flaw is -again- NOT in AFE, but in the team's management.
If this were real life, I would've already appointed Rich's or Dirt's or Phen0m's or Bo's or many other secondary coaches or defensive line coaches as my Defensive Coordinator a long time ago, and the same would've done many other owners.
Because they STOP those big offenses most of the time.
Then, we all would be stopping those offenses on a regular basis and offenses would have to come up with something different.
But no.
We can't do that, so while only a few managers have figured it out how to perform great on offense or defense, you can't expect to have similar numbers to NFL.
In real life, coaching trees make the league a lot more even and we don't have that in here.
---
Suggestion:
This already happens; what I am going to do as I revise the game is to make these decisions player by player rather than the whole team at once. For example, on a play action pass, the sim decides the extent to which the defense is fooled, but either the entire defense is fooled or the entire defense is not fooled. I want to change this so each defender tracks the ball carrier individually, and not all of them may always have the correct information. The tricky part again is communicating this to the owners without growing the database massively or making the play-by-play tediously long.
Performance report.
If you do this, you(AFE)'ll know how many times each defensive player was fooled and some other factors (how bad he was fooled, how big of an impact had his hits and misses, etc...).
Then you could "grade" the player's performance in the match. (Either with letters or in a 1-10 scale).
Then you could display that performance report to each owner, either at the end of each quarter or at the end of the game. You could display it in the Stats menu, there could be a performance report field along with the Team Drills and the Improvement Report.
EdSales87
August 15, 2014 at 12:08PM View BBCode
In real life, coaching trees make the league a lot more even and we don't have that in here.
[\\quote]
I strongly disagree with this. When I first started playing this game, I had no idea what the heck I was doing. Then an owner named Charles_Buk shared with me what he found successful. That then meed from 3-13 to Sim Bowl Winner in just a few seasons. There are many other owners who have helped add to my knowledge, as with each update things change, so do strategies. I have past my knowledge to other owners and they have continued to do the same, as well as pass what they know to me. No one likes to see an owner become discouraged by there troubles, and you can usually see the best in other owners as they respond to help that troubled owner.
Performance report.
If you do this, you(AFE)'ll know how many times each defensive player was fooled and some other factors (how bad he was fooled, how big of an impact had his hits and misses, etc...).
Then you could "grade" the player's performance in the match. (Either with letters or in a 1-10 scale).
Then you could display that performance report to each owner, either at the end of each quarter or at the end of the game. You could display it in the Stats menu, there could be a performance report field along with the Team Drills and the Improvement Report.
This would be epic. Have a page with all the players on it like the Improvement Report, and then there grade, and what stats went into them getting there grade.
Speaking of which, I wish Wide/Short Throws was a stat.
[Edited on 8-15-2014 by EdSales87]
Hodor
Oh, sure, (most) people is helping all the time when you ask for help, but that's not what I was talking about, at all.
I'm not talking about "you" helping "me", I'm talking about "you" working for "my" team... drafting my players, making my whole playbook, adjusting my roster and my depth charts.
The whole enchilada (if I may), not just some coaching tips.
Because that's what happens in real life.
You don't stick with your crappy Defensive Coordinator who keeps asking for advice here and there, watching NFL Network all the time trying to learn something from Bryan Billick and Jamie Dukes. :P
No, you go out and try to hire for a full time job the guy who is already doing things right in another team.
That's what I meant.
August 16, 2014 at 08:37AM View BBCode
Originally posted by EdSales87
I strongly disagree with this. When I first started playing this game, I had no idea what the heck I was doing. Then an owner named Charles_Buk shared with me what he found successful. That then meed from 3-13 to Sim Bowl Winner in just a few seasons. There are many other owners who have helped add to my knowledge, as with each update things change, so do strategies. I have past my knowledge to other owners and they have continued to do the same, as well as pass what they know to me. No one likes to see an owner become discouraged by there troubles, and you can usually see the best in other owners as they respond to help that troubled owner.
Oh, sure, (most) people is helping all the time when you ask for help, but that's not what I was talking about, at all.
I'm not talking about "you" helping "me", I'm talking about "you" working for "my" team... drafting my players, making my whole playbook, adjusting my roster and my depth charts.
The whole enchilada (if I may), not just some coaching tips.
Because that's what happens in real life.
You don't stick with your crappy Defensive Coordinator who keeps asking for advice here and there, watching NFL Network all the time trying to learn something from Bryan Billick and Jamie Dukes. :P
No, you go out and try to hire for a full time job the guy who is already doing things right in another team.
That's what I meant.
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