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FiveToolPlayer

The Draft

May 23, 2003 at 05:55PM View BBCode

It looks like there were a lot of older players taken in the amateur draft (as in 21 to 24 years old). Most of these guys that were taken in the 1st round are B-.

That is fine but in addition to the older B- players, there were a few teenage B- guys taken in the latter half. I got a 17 year old 1B who is already a B- with the 11th pick. KC got an 18 year old B- with teh 14th pick. CHA got an 18 year old C+ with the 15th pick. Since the improvement system is still very predictable, most of these late round picks will be B+ or A- by the time they are ready for the majors. The earlier picks who are already 22 or 23 and B- will probably max out at B+ at the age of 26. So in this draft, it appears that the rich will stay rich for years to come.

I still feel that the draft needs to produce a player pool where teens are C- to C and the older players are B- to B (that would make them ready or almost ready for the majors).

Basically what the ratings are saying right now are that my 17 year old B- player is as ready to play in the majors as a 24 year old B- player who may have been drafted at the same time. This isn't realistic considering that the 24 year old has probably played in college and has mentally and physically developed more.

Also, in this league, a B player is a backup or he's useless. The older draftees who start in the B- area will never be useful but the kids will be all-stars.

My solution would be lower ratings for teens, a steeper drop-off from pick 1 to pick 16, and the much talked about "potential" idea.
hcboomer

May 23, 2003 at 07:05PM View BBCode

I agree this is a problem. In reality, the B- guy who's 18 is far more valuable than the B- guy or even the B who is 23. Let's face it -- if we had a chance to "see" the players in the draft and actually pick them, why would we go for the player 5 years older who's is rated only a slight notch higher than the player 5 years younger? No team would do that?

Lowering the ratings of teen-agers overall makes sense. But another approach that at least might improve the draft structure would be to somehow have the player's age influence the rankings for draft purposes. That way, a 17-year-old B- player would actually be ranked higher than a 23-year-old B.
andrew

May 23, 2003 at 07:12PM View BBCode

Why don't people just put more points on youth?
FiveToolPlayer

May 23, 2003 at 07:15PM View BBCode

I agree that people should put more points on youth with the current sytem (I put about 40 points this time) but it still doesn't solve the talent inflation problem.
dawgfan

May 23, 2003 at 07:25PM View BBCode

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't the first thing that ABE looks at when drafting your players the overall rating? In other words ABE will look for the highest rated players available in your positions of choice, then sort them based on your draft preferences; the result being that ABE will always take that B- 2B who's 24 rather than the C+ 2B who's 18, regardless of your youth preferences?

Drafting is such a crapshoot with this system given the fact that ABE weighs overall ratings much differently than most of us do...
andrew

May 23, 2003 at 07:26PM View BBCode

If you put 100 points on youth ABE would pick the youngest guy in the draft.
Bob

May 23, 2003 at 08:01PM View BBCode

Your ratings override ABE's default settings. For example, ABE rates pitcher 50% on control and 50% on velocity -- that's it. If you put 70 points on control and 30 points on velocity, then your selections will be made accordingly.

So, a guy with 60 velocity and 85 control would be rated 7,250 by ABE (60*50+85*50) and 7,750 by you (60*30+85*70). A guy with 75 velocity and 75 control would be rated 7,500 by both of you. So although ABE would rank the second guy higher (7,500 to 7,250), you would rank the first guy higher (7,750 to 7,500). In the draft, you would select the first guy, even though ABE ranks the second guy higher.
tysonlowery

May 23, 2003 at 08:02PM View BBCode

Good explanations...

Next time I really tinker with the amateur draft I'm going to redo it so that:
a) talent is lower
b) talent is based on age
c) talent is based on the talent already in the league - this way the new changes won't screw currently running leagues.
disciple

May 24, 2003 at 01:04AM View BBCode

I'm on board with these ideas, but it would be helpful to implement a minor league system or something for owners to have more control over player development.

I can't stand it when ABE is working on a guy's speed, but he's already A+ rated in speed. On the other hand the same guy has a D in hitting. In reality even an average minor league coaching staff would pickup on this and focus on improving the guy's hitting instead of wasting time on developing something he already has - speed.
andrew

May 24, 2003 at 06:14PM View BBCode

This is kind of an overrun issue. If they never tried to train minor leaguers in things they were good at then the already major talent problem would become even worse. It is hard to watch but it is nessesary IMO.
geoffrey13

draft thoughts

May 24, 2003 at 10:33PM View BBCode

and please please please let us decide which slot gets which position....it's so darn frustrating to see infielders drafted in the 1st 2 round when I would have preferred pitchers...but I didn't want or need 5 pitchers so I end up with 3 pitchers who all get cut. This is the one change that really needs to be made over any other amateur draft changes, in my opinion.

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