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paulcaraccio
Inning: 6 Texas
Robby Chambers singles past the second baseman.
William Ortiz singles.
Robby Chambers advances to third on the hit.
Calvin Lange flies out to the right fielder. Runner on third tags,
Robby Chambers scores.
Abraham Alvarez flies out to the left fielder.
Daniel Scriven doubles past the center fielder.
Edwin Chandler comes in from the bullpen to pitch.
questionable ABE situation
June 09, 2010 at 04:01AM View BBCode
It's my contention that in the following scenario, Ortiz should score on Scriven's double. With 2 outs, on a double that goes past the center fielder and presumably all the way to the wall (425 to center), anyone should score from first, Ortiz has B+ speed. I think ABE needs to have dudes run faster with 2 outs.Inning: 6 Texas
Robby Chambers singles past the second baseman.
William Ortiz singles.
Robby Chambers advances to third on the hit.
Calvin Lange flies out to the right fielder. Runner on third tags,
Robby Chambers scores.
Abraham Alvarez flies out to the left fielder.
Daniel Scriven doubles past the center fielder.
Edwin Chandler comes in from the bullpen to pitch.
shep1582
base runners do screw up sometimes, the speed grade really refers to base running acumen.
June 09, 2010 at 12:21PM View BBCode
what is Ortiz's speed grade?base runners do screw up sometimes, the speed grade really refers to base running acumen.
tm4559
there is no "throwing" home from the outfield (except on the sacrifice fly). the running play to score from first on the double (if abe allows it, which it may not ever, i don't know) cannot be as frequent as it would normally be, because you only see the sucesses.
the incidence (of attempts) has to be low, because the sucesses would be based on real life sucess. in real life, you have sucesses and failures, so there are attempts, and there is a percentage of sucessful scores.
since the failures can't be shown, then the number of attempts must be very low, in order to arrive at the right number of sucesses.
(all this may be moot, and kind of follows the same logic as to why the attempts on first to third are fairly low, again, the failures are not accounted for. all attempts are sucessful. runners in the sim may never go from first to home on the double, i do not know. but if they do, they will always be sucessful. so they can't do it much. i assume when the stretching comes in, we will see more.)
June 09, 2010 at 02:08PM View BBCode
they cannot always run and score, or even try very much.there is no "throwing" home from the outfield (except on the sacrifice fly). the running play to score from first on the double (if abe allows it, which it may not ever, i don't know) cannot be as frequent as it would normally be, because you only see the sucesses.
the incidence (of attempts) has to be low, because the sucesses would be based on real life sucess. in real life, you have sucesses and failures, so there are attempts, and there is a percentage of sucessful scores.
since the failures can't be shown, then the number of attempts must be very low, in order to arrive at the right number of sucesses.
(all this may be moot, and kind of follows the same logic as to why the attempts on first to third are fairly low, again, the failures are not accounted for. all attempts are sucessful. runners in the sim may never go from first to home on the double, i do not know. but if they do, they will always be sucessful. so they can't do it much. i assume when the stretching comes in, we will see more.)
shep1582
(serious Q)
June 09, 2010 at 02:31PM View BBCode
so, it has nothing to do with speed grades, dad?(serious Q)
tm4559
June 09, 2010 at 02:39PM View BBCode
shep, if runners do indeed go from first to home (as i say, i am not sure they do or don't, they may or may not) the speed is in there, yes, just as it is on going from first to third and second to home. that is what tyson said, at any rate. he kind of assured us that when the stretching comes in, the speed of the runner and the arm on the outfielder will be in there, and there will be a set of prefs for the running.
Hamilton2
Perhaps the hit was a shallow liner which the CF dove in to snag and missed and it rolled a bit before being picks up by the LF and the guy only made it into 2nd for the double by sliding beneath the tag on a perfectly thrown put-out attempt. Maybe.
The point is that ABE calculates these things, as tm has stated, on probable success. A B+ runner moving from 1st to home, while possible, is unlikely; and, because there is currently no mechanism for him to attempt to make it and be thrown out, he merely stays on 3rd.
June 09, 2010 at 02:52PM View BBCode
B+ speed is at best 75 out of 100. It is not high. It is not impressive. It would be a stretch to make it from 1st to home on a double, even a double "past the centerfielder." Also, the text in the boxscore is not entirely accurate. The imaginary ball doesn't do anything or go anywhere, it is merely a results based sim with words added after the result in order to provide entertainment.Perhaps the hit was a shallow liner which the CF dove in to snag and missed and it rolled a bit before being picks up by the LF and the guy only made it into 2nd for the double by sliding beneath the tag on a perfectly thrown put-out attempt. Maybe.
The point is that ABE calculates these things, as tm has stated, on probable success. A B+ runner moving from 1st to home, while possible, is unlikely; and, because there is currently no mechanism for him to attempt to make it and be thrown out, he merely stays on 3rd.
Admin
A 75 Speed runner is at worst average, I can't remember what the number I used for average is in this formula, it is likely 50.
Tyson
June 09, 2010 at 03:32PM View BBCode
Players score on these type of plays based on many years of MLB data regarding the hit and number of outs. We looked at MLB data to determine how ofter a runner from 1st scores on a double with 0, 1, and 2 outs. This percentage is used in the sim. It is then modified based on the speed of the runner. So faster runners should score more often than normal.A 75 Speed runner is at worst average, I can't remember what the number I used for average is in this formula, it is likely 50.
Tyson
paulcaraccio
June 09, 2010 at 08:04PM View BBCode
I can understand the player not scoring on a standard double, but in an instance where the ball was misplayed by the CF so that the ball went past him, with 2 outs, I think most any runner should score from first, though the ground-rule theory is plausible.
Hamilton2
June 09, 2010 at 10:35PM View BBCode
Shep, the speed is listed in the first post, as referenced below.Originally posted by paulcaraccio
It's my contention that in the following scenario, Ortiz should score on Scriven's double. With 2 outs, on a double that goes past the center fielder and presumably all the way to the wall (425 to center), anyone should score from first, Ortiz has B+ speed. I think ABE needs to have dudes run faster with 2 outs.
dirtdevil
have you perhaps considered that then runner in question fell rounding third and had to scramble back? or that he got decoyed at second by the SS and only had time to get to third? or that he simply assumed, like everyone else in the ballpark including ABE, that the CF was going to catch the ball and so wasn't running that hard until it dropped in?
there are all kinds of very reasonable explanations why that runner would have been unable to score from first.
June 10, 2010 at 08:49PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
I can understand the player not scoring on a standard double, but in an instance where the ball was misplayed by the CF so that the ball went past him, with 2 outs, I think most any runner should score from first, though the ground-rule theory is plausible.
have you perhaps considered that then runner in question fell rounding third and had to scramble back? or that he got decoyed at second by the SS and only had time to get to third? or that he simply assumed, like everyone else in the ballpark including ABE, that the CF was going to catch the ball and so wasn't running that hard until it dropped in?
there are all kinds of very reasonable explanations why that runner would have been unable to score from first.
dabigtrain
...
there are all kinds of very reasonable explanations why that runner would have been unable to score from first. [/quote]
Well put. Folks, I don't have any inside knowledge of how the sim is written, but I have to think things go like this: The outcome of the at-bat is simmed (Double, runner on first advances to third), and then a bunch of verbiage (past the CF) is selected from the database that makes the play-by-play a little more interesting to read. Other stuff could be added too- like "runner deked at second and only makes it to third," or "runner slips rounding third and barely makes it back."
Don't get your undies in a bundle over individual "plays."
June 10, 2010 at 09:15PM View formatted
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[quote][i]Originally posted by dirtdevil[/i]
...
there are all kinds of very reasonable explanations why that runner would have been unable to score from first. [/quote]
Well put. Folks, I don't have any inside knowledge of how the sim is written, but I have to think things go like this: The outcome of the at-bat is simmed (Double, runner on first advances to third), and then a bunch of verbiage (past the CF) is selected from the database that makes the play-by-play a little more interesting to read. Other stuff could be added too- like "runner deked at second and only makes it to third," or "runner slips rounding third and barely makes it back."
Don't get your undies in a bundle over individual "plays."
celamantia
Not quite. "Past the CF" has a specific meaning in this case; a ball that was originally simmed as a single was decided by the sim to be mishandled by the CF; not an error, but a minus play. So it is not just decorative verbiage, it is saying that a CF with a higher range would have likely handled that play better resulting in a single instead of a double.
June 10, 2010 at 09:27PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dabigtrain
Well put. Folks, I don't have any inside knowledge of how the sim is written, but I have to think things go like this: The outcome of the at-bat is simmed (Double, runner on first advances to third), and then a bunch of verbiage (past the CF) is selected from the database that makes the play-by-play a little more interesting to read. Other stuff could be added too- like "runner deked at second and only makes it to third," or "runner slips rounding third and barely makes it back."
Not quite. "Past the CF" has a specific meaning in this case; a ball that was originally simmed as a single was decided by the sim to be mishandled by the CF; not an error, but a minus play. So it is not just decorative verbiage, it is saying that a CF with a higher range would have likely handled that play better resulting in a single instead of a double.
dabigtrain
Of course, none of this actually "happened..." I mean, I get that it's just a plausibly simmed at-bat.
[Edited on 6-11-2010 by dabigtrain]
June 11, 2010 at 03:58PM View BBCode
Thanks for the clarification. I think that clears it up altogether- it sounds to me like the original poster was imagining a hard-hit gapper that the runner on first knew he could score on, and so was flying all the way; your explanation says it wasn't. With two outs, it seems perfectly logical that the runner on first would start running thinking he'll just get into scoring position, and then took the extra base when he saw the CF miss the angle.Of course, none of this actually "happened..." I mean, I get that it's just a plausibly simmed at-bat.
[Edited on 6-11-2010 by dabigtrain]
paulcaraccio
http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=267189
June 13, 2010 at 10:34PM View BBCode
nah, i already knew what was meant by "past the centerfielder". That's why I think he should score easily. For a CF to misplay a ball in such a way that the batter reaches second (the shortest throw for the CF), I think that short of falling down, the runner from first should score. He's off at the crack of the bat, has rounded second by the time the ball is mishandled, and if the CF can't get the ball in in time to catch the batter going to second, the runner at first should have no trouble. And while the runner falling down is a possibility, that would only account for a one-time occurrence. I doubt anyone would suggest that runners routinely fall while running the bases, and as an astute observer of Dynasty Vision, I can say that the situation described in the original post happens more often than could be explained by one-foot-in-front-of-the-other error. Anyway this isn't a big deal, it should be like ten millionth in priority on the list of things to change. I'm disappointed that this very minor suggestion engendered such imaginative and plentiful feedback, while my other recent suggestion titled "Add language to Dynasty Vision" went largely ignored.http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=267189
shep1582
June 13, 2010 at 10:47PM View BBCode
I only look at the box score, and will scroll through the interesting sections of the play by play just to see what happened in particular innings.
Admin
Tyson
June 14, 2010 at 02:50PM View BBCode
There isn't anything currently in the code that treats minus plays differently than regular plays when it comes to runners advancing.Tyson
dirtdevil
but lots of things could explain that. the ball could have caromed to the left fielder, who threw into the third to hold the runner there and so allowed the batter to reach second. the batter could have just made a really could hustle play. his judgement of the ball was maybe better than the runner's. the third base coach could have made a mistake and held a runner he should have sent. there are tons of reasonable scenarios that would result in the runner on first not scoring.
June 14, 2010 at 03:00PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
nah, i already knew what was meant by "past the centerfielder". That's why I think he should score easily. For a CF to misplay a ball in such a way that the batter reaches second (the shortest throw for the CF), I think that short of falling down, the runner from first should score. He's off at the crack of the bat, has rounded second by the time the ball is mishandled, and if the CF can't get the ball in in time to catch the batter going to second, the runner at first should have no trouble. And while the runner falling down is a possibility, that would only account for a one-time occurrence. I doubt anyone would suggest that runners routinely fall while running the bases, and as an astute observer of Dynasty Vision, I can say that the situation described in the original post happens more often than could be explained by one-foot-in-front-of-the-other error. Anyway this isn't a big deal, it should be like ten millionth in priority on the list of things to change. I'm disappointed that this very minor suggestion engendered such imaginative and plentiful feedback, while my other recent suggestion titled "Add language to Dynasty Vision" went largely ignored.
http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=267189
but lots of things could explain that. the ball could have caromed to the left fielder, who threw into the third to hold the runner there and so allowed the batter to reach second. the batter could have just made a really could hustle play. his judgement of the ball was maybe better than the runner's. the third base coach could have made a mistake and held a runner he should have sent. there are tons of reasonable scenarios that would result in the runner on first not scoring.
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