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khazim
Anyway, I present you my findings. Positive numbers are good and Negative numbers are bad.
1 Seattle Seahawks 9.70
2 New England Patriots 8.13
3 Denver Broncos 7.33
4 Green Bay Packers 5.35
5 Atlanta Falcons 4.88
6 Cincinnati Bengals 3.98
7 San Francisco 49ers 3.28
8 Chicago Bears 2.72
9 Washington Redskins 2.58
10 Baltimore Ravens 2.13
11 New Orleans Saints 1.73
12 Houston Texans 1.67
13 Minnesota Vikings 1.45
14 Carolina Panthers 1.28
15 New York Giants 0.37
16 Dallas Cowboys 0.12
17 Miami Dolphins -0.03
18 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.28
19 San Diego Chargers -0.87
20 St. Louis Rams -1.02
21 Indianapolis Colts -1.17
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.83
23 Cleveland Browns -1.92
24 New York Jets -2.87
25 Detroit Lions -3.50
26 Buffalo Bills -5.13
27 Arizona Cardinals -5.65
28 Oakland Raiders -5.88
29 Tennessee Titans -6.00
30 Philadelphia Eagles -6.02
31 Jacksonville Jaguars -7.13
32 Kansas City Chiefs -7.42
Judging by this, I would say the Seattle Seahawks are the team in the NFC that nobody wants to face in the playoffs. New England and Denver are easily best in the AFC judging by this standard.
I know you guys tend to be stat junkies, so please, come poke holes in what I've done here.
[Edited on 12-28-2012 by khazim]
My NFL Power Rankings
December 28, 2012 at 07:14PM View BBCode
I got bored and put together a spreadsheet looking at the week-by-week point differentials of all 32 NFL teams, weighting each quarter of the season differently (25% of the differential in weeks 1-4, 50% in weeks 5-8, 75% in weeks 9-13, and 100% in weeks 14-17). I am tired of hearing about "Great offense" beating "Great defense" and vice-versa. Point differential seemed to be the way to do that best. With point differential, a team who wins a lot of close games by scoring points but has a bad defense (think last year's Packers or Pats) gets viewed the same as a team who has a phenomenal defense but an anemic offense (think the 2000 Ravens). A three point win is a three point win, no matter if the score is 3-0 or 51-48.Anyway, I present you my findings. Positive numbers are good and Negative numbers are bad.
1 Seattle Seahawks 9.70
2 New England Patriots 8.13
3 Denver Broncos 7.33
4 Green Bay Packers 5.35
5 Atlanta Falcons 4.88
6 Cincinnati Bengals 3.98
7 San Francisco 49ers 3.28
8 Chicago Bears 2.72
9 Washington Redskins 2.58
10 Baltimore Ravens 2.13
11 New Orleans Saints 1.73
12 Houston Texans 1.67
13 Minnesota Vikings 1.45
14 Carolina Panthers 1.28
15 New York Giants 0.37
16 Dallas Cowboys 0.12
17 Miami Dolphins -0.03
18 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.28
19 San Diego Chargers -0.87
20 St. Louis Rams -1.02
21 Indianapolis Colts -1.17
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.83
23 Cleveland Browns -1.92
24 New York Jets -2.87
25 Detroit Lions -3.50
26 Buffalo Bills -5.13
27 Arizona Cardinals -5.65
28 Oakland Raiders -5.88
29 Tennessee Titans -6.00
30 Philadelphia Eagles -6.02
31 Jacksonville Jaguars -7.13
32 Kansas City Chiefs -7.42
Judging by this, I would say the Seattle Seahawks are the team in the NFC that nobody wants to face in the playoffs. New England and Denver are easily best in the AFC judging by this standard.
I know you guys tend to be stat junkies, so please, come poke holes in what I've done here.
[Edited on 12-28-2012 by khazim]
tworoosters
I think the biggest issue I have is that Seattle's numbers are greatly skewed by their two huge beatdowns of very bad teams, a combined 108-17 against Arizona and Buffalo.
Most NFL teams take their foot off the throttle when they have 30 point leads but Pete Carroll seems to think he's still in the NCAA . I think a system that "caps" the maximum points differential might be more representative, I mean really is winning 58-0 any more indicative of dominance than winning 38-0 ?
I'm also not sure why a 20 point win in October isn't worth the same as a 20 point win in December .
December 28, 2012 at 10:38PM View BBCode
It's an interesting list, I can't really buy into New Orleans and Chicago being ranked ahead of Houston, though Houston has stumbled a bit down the stretch.I think the biggest issue I have is that Seattle's numbers are greatly skewed by their two huge beatdowns of very bad teams, a combined 108-17 against Arizona and Buffalo.
Most NFL teams take their foot off the throttle when they have 30 point leads but Pete Carroll seems to think he's still in the NCAA . I think a system that "caps" the maximum points differential might be more representative, I mean really is winning 58-0 any more indicative of dominance than winning 38-0 ?
I'm also not sure why a 20 point win in October isn't worth the same as a 20 point win in December .
khazim
Look at it this way, every team whose differential is between +3 and -3 are basically the same team, in terms of ability to win games. Besides, Houston actually IS that bad. They peaked too soon and haven't been the same team since they lost Cushing for the year.
[Edited on 12-28-2012 by khazim]
December 28, 2012 at 11:15PM View BBCode
When you're looking at who is playing well now, you have to weight the recent stuff more highly than the older stuff.Look at it this way, every team whose differential is between +3 and -3 are basically the same team, in terms of ability to win games. Besides, Houston actually IS that bad. They peaked too soon and haven't been the same team since they lost Cushing for the year.
[Edited on 12-28-2012 by khazim]
khazim
[IMG]http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y154/khazim/NFLPointdiffwithsplits.jpg[/IMG]
Seattle's road split (2.38) is less than Washington's home split (3.63), giving a 1.25 point nod to Washington. If you add in the home field standard (3.5) that Vegas uses, and that shows Seattle losing by 4.75 points to Washington.
January 03, 2013 at 03:43PM View BBCode
Here are the final ones for the season with splits for home and away. I did this initially to see just how wide a gap the Seahawks had between their home and away splits, but there's more.[IMG]http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y154/khazim/NFLPointdiffwithsplits.jpg[/IMG]
Seattle's road split (2.38) is less than Washington's home split (3.63), giving a 1.25 point nod to Washington. If you add in the home field standard (3.5) that Vegas uses, and that shows Seattle losing by 4.75 points to Washington.
tworoosters
January 03, 2013 at 07:59PM View BBCode
You should send this ranking to Johnathan Mara, I'm sure he'd try and find a way to use it to force the NFL to add the Giants to the playoffs.
tworoosters
Baltimore are 6 1/2 point favourites, no movement, Green Bay opened as 8 point faves and it's now 7 1/2 and Texas are currently 4 1/2 point favoutites after opening as 5 point faves.
January 03, 2013 at 08:03PM View BBCode
Vegas has Seattle as 3 point favourites, it opened at pick and has been bet up to three.Baltimore are 6 1/2 point favourites, no movement, Green Bay opened as 8 point faves and it's now 7 1/2 and Texas are currently 4 1/2 point favoutites after opening as 5 point faves.
khazim
January 04, 2013 at 12:57AM View BBCode
I'm shocked that Houston is favored, as bad as they have been the last month of the season.
folifan19
January 04, 2013 at 06:34PM View formatted
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Houston is fake good. The Bengals will beat them. As a Steeler fan, this causes me much pain... Go Broncos.
paulcaraccio
January 05, 2013 at 11:20PM View BBCode
take the packers, they're gonna win by 20 or 30
tworoosters
By your ratings they should be favoured, they are 8.63 at home while Cinci is 4.5 on the road, a 4 point difference .
January 06, 2013 at 02:05AM View BBCode
Originally posted by khazim
I'm shocked that Houston is favored, as bad as they have been the last month of the season.
By your ratings they should be favoured, they are 8.63 at home while Cinci is 4.5 on the road, a 4 point difference .
folifan19
January 07, 2013 at 03:56PM View BBCode
Stoopid Bengals. All four teams I was hoping for lost this weekend.
dirtdevil
January 07, 2013 at 05:37PM View BBCode
i was 2-2, as far as that goes. seahawks and ravens up, bengals and vikings down.
khazim
January 10, 2013 at 09:48PM View BBCode
The model was 3-1. The one game I missed was Seattle @ Washington.
tworoosters
January 11, 2013 at 09:35PM View BBCode
I think Seattle probably wins that game regardless but it would have been more interesting had Washington had a two legged QB for the final three quarters.Pages: 1