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paulcaraccio
http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/
came across it from an article about Cabrera's contract that alleged, based on expected WAR, that he will provide something like $275 million of value. The same model predicts that Cano will be worth like $340 million over his 10-year deal. I'd take the under on both, although they admit that they don't incorporate the chances of debilitating injuries into the model.
interesting study on decline age
March 28, 2014 at 09:29PM View BBCode
in case we ever decided to re-examine the decline age, or if the declines of MLB players is just something that blows your hair back, here's a report on it:http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/
came across it from an article about Cabrera's contract that alleged, based on expected WAR, that he will provide something like $275 million of value. The same model predicts that Cano will be worth like $340 million over his 10-year deal. I'd take the under on both, although they admit that they don't incorporate the chances of debilitating injuries into the model.
dirtdevil
March 28, 2014 at 11:18PM View BBCode
i'll take the way, way under. age is the most debilitating injury of all.
tworoosters
The "new numbers" have Cabrera generating 6.4 wins above replacement a year over the past four years, and there's no reason to assume he won't continue to do so for the next five years at least, he's only 31 this year. Given that the current "dollar value of a win" is estimated at $6.5M then over the next five years Cabrera should generate around $210M in value while "only" being paid $130M which is, quite frankly, sensational value, and that's not accounting for inflation in the value of a win.
Also Miggy needs to get back some value, over the past 4 seasons he's generated $166M worth of value while being paid $82M so the Tigers are already up over $84M on Cabrera so it's unlikely that at the end of it all Detroit will have ever "overpaid" Miguel Cabrera.
March 30, 2014 at 08:57PM View BBCode
What the overall value of the contract ignores is that Detroit isn't overly concerned with the "bad money" at the end of the deal, their focus was ensuring that they locked up the best hitter in baseball through his prime years. That was the focus of Neil Paine's [url=http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-bad-was-the-cabrera-deal/]article[/url] in 538.The "new numbers" have Cabrera generating 6.4 wins above replacement a year over the past four years, and there's no reason to assume he won't continue to do so for the next five years at least, he's only 31 this year. Given that the current "dollar value of a win" is estimated at $6.5M then over the next five years Cabrera should generate around $210M in value while "only" being paid $130M which is, quite frankly, sensational value, and that's not accounting for inflation in the value of a win.
Also Miggy needs to get back some value, over the past 4 seasons he's generated $166M worth of value while being paid $82M so the Tigers are already up over $84M on Cabrera so it's unlikely that at the end of it all Detroit will have ever "overpaid" Miguel Cabrera.
paulcaraccio
March 30, 2014 at 10:26PM View BBCode
the part i dont understand is how 1 win is worth $6.5M. The way I read that, it tells me that a 50-win team should have a $300 million payroll. I'm sure that can't be what they're saying...what did I miss?
tworoosters
March 31, 2014 at 04:28AM View BBCode
A win is this sense is a win over replacement value, so the hypothetical team of "replacement"players wouldn't win 0 games they would likely win 50-60.
tworoosters
April 01, 2014 at 02:30AM View BBCode
But here's the real reason why it was a good signing.
dirtdevil
this does not change the fact that he's a great hitter.
April 01, 2014 at 03:20AM View formatted
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it's a stupid contract and it's going to be an albatross at some point.
this does not change the fact that he's a great hitter.
eragon
Sportsgasm alert!
April 01, 2014 at 03:34AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
But here's the real reason why it was a good signing.
Sportsgasm alert!
paulcaraccio
April 01, 2014 at 04:18AM View BBCode
thats awesome, he's hammering pitches outside the strike zone box on all 4 sides. and the strike zone box goes way up to the letters, i thought that was only true in rule books.Pages: 1