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tysonlowery
Since they started the wildcard, every team that has won at least 94 games has either made the playoffs, or been involved in a 1-game playoff to get into the playoffs.
For the Indians to do that, they need to go 20-10 over the next month. Another way to look at it, if they win every series, they should be a lock for the playoffs.
Can they catch the White Sox? I think they have a shot, but its going to be tough. First off, they need to do well in the 6 remaining games against the Sox.
If they win 4 of those 6, they would have to do something like go 16-8 in the rest of their games, and the Sox would have to go 13-15 in their other games. That would be a pretty big drop.
But if they could pull off 5 of the 6, and play 15-9 over the other games, they could catch the Sox if they play 500 ball (14-14).
Here's my prediction on the AL since I've been flipping between a lot of the games lately and have seen everyone play. East: Yankees. Central: White Sox. West: Angels. Wild Card: Indians.
[Edited on 8-30-2005 by tysonlowery]
Making the Playoffs (esp AL)
August 30, 2005 at 05:56PM View BBCode
So I did a little research last night.Since they started the wildcard, every team that has won at least 94 games has either made the playoffs, or been involved in a 1-game playoff to get into the playoffs.
For the Indians to do that, they need to go 20-10 over the next month. Another way to look at it, if they win every series, they should be a lock for the playoffs.
Can they catch the White Sox? I think they have a shot, but its going to be tough. First off, they need to do well in the 6 remaining games against the Sox.
If they win 4 of those 6, they would have to do something like go 16-8 in the rest of their games, and the Sox would have to go 13-15 in their other games. That would be a pretty big drop.
But if they could pull off 5 of the 6, and play 15-9 over the other games, they could catch the Sox if they play 500 ball (14-14).
Here's my prediction on the AL since I've been flipping between a lot of the games lately and have seen everyone play. East: Yankees. Central: White Sox. West: Angels. Wild Card: Indians.
[Edited on 8-30-2005 by tysonlowery]
lvnwrth
Surely the Cardinals can't embarrass themselves two years in a row, can they?
Sure they can. It's baseball. Anything can happen.
August 30, 2005 at 05:59PM View BBCode
I'm just hoping that Houston doesn't get the NL wild card. I'm a Cardinals fan, and that's the team that worries me the most, because of their great pitching.Surely the Cardinals can't embarrass themselves two years in a row, can they?
Sure they can. It's baseball. Anything can happen.
ME
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
August 30, 2005 at 06:04PM View BBCode
Cleveland has a 58.65% chance (15.17% AL Central, 43.48% Wild Card) of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus.http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
FiveToolPlayer
August 30, 2005 at 06:19PM View BBCode
The Red Sox are fading even though they are still in first. If you are a top team, you can't lose games to KC and Detroit. Their pitching is very weak at this point. That being said, I think they hold off the Yankees but the Yanks get the wild card. Cleveland is a nice story and I'd love to see them get in but I don't see it happening. They can't catch the White Sox (who will be one and done in the playoffs).
folifan19
Columbus used to be a Reds town till the Indians won a few games. Now you can tell all the life long Indian fans here. They walk with a limp, from jumping off the Reds bandwagon so fast, they broke an ankle.
August 30, 2005 at 06:47PM View BBCode
I hate the Indians. I hope they go 8-22 the rest of the way.Columbus used to be a Reds town till the Indians won a few games. Now you can tell all the life long Indian fans here. They walk with a limp, from jumping off the Reds bandwagon so fast, they broke an ankle.
tysonlowery
On the White Sox, I'm not sure about the stat, but I was looking at their Run Differential today. They have scored 592 to opp. 515 for a difference of 77. 77 seems low for their winning percentage - am I wrong? Has there been studies on this type of thing?
Columbus is one of those cities that will always teeter back and forth. Its like Toledo between the Tigers and Indians, or even east of Youngstown between the Browns and Steelers. I imagine its tough to be a die-heart fan when you can't see the team in your home city - hence people switching alliances. And before interleague play, you could root for both teams. You still can now really - just have to pick one team for those 6 games a year.
August 30, 2005 at 07:23PM View BBCode
I consider myself pretty knowledgable about the Indians - all I know is that the team is playing their best baseball of the season right now. Everyone has been hitting - even the guys who stunk earlier like Aaron Boone - he's hitting about .313 since July 1st.On the White Sox, I'm not sure about the stat, but I was looking at their Run Differential today. They have scored 592 to opp. 515 for a difference of 77. 77 seems low for their winning percentage - am I wrong? Has there been studies on this type of thing?
Columbus is one of those cities that will always teeter back and forth. Its like Toledo between the Tigers and Indians, or even east of Youngstown between the Browns and Steelers. I imagine its tough to be a die-heart fan when you can't see the team in your home city - hence people switching alliances. And before interleague play, you could root for both teams. You still can now really - just have to pick one team for those 6 games a year.
tysonlowery
August 30, 2005 at 07:29PM View BBCode
Hey ME - the playoffs odds reports link seems broken.
folifan19
It crashed while trying to generate the astronomical odds of the Nats getting a spot in the post season:lol::lol::lol:
August 30, 2005 at 07:38PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysonlowery
Hey ME - the playoffs odds reports link seems broken.
It crashed while trying to generate the astronomical odds of the Nats getting a spot in the post season:lol::lol::lol:
ME
Yes, there have. A team's pythagorean W-L (based on runs scored and allowed) predicts future wins and losses better than actual winning %. There are also 2nd and 3rd order wins, which take into account hits/walks/etc. that a team had and gave up as well as ballpark effects and how many runs they should have scored. Third order wins take into account strength of schedule. The Indians rank 1st in the AL Central in 3rd order wins (The White Sox are 3rd, just behind Minnesota).
August 30, 2005 at 08:14PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysonlowery
On the White Sox, I'm not sure about the stat, but I was looking at their Run Differential today. They have scored 592 to opp. 515 for a difference of 77. 77 seems low for their winning percentage - am I wrong? Has there been studies on this type of thing?
Yes, there have. A team's pythagorean W-L (based on runs scored and allowed) predicts future wins and losses better than actual winning %. There are also 2nd and 3rd order wins, which take into account hits/walks/etc. that a team had and gave up as well as ballpark effects and how many runs they should have scored. Third order wins take into account strength of schedule. The Indians rank 1st in the AL Central in 3rd order wins (The White Sox are 3rd, just behind Minnesota).
jetpac
August 31, 2005 at 12:11AM View BBCode
According to ME's link, I think it's a pretty sure bet the Cards are making the playoffs. 99.9989%.... whew
tysonlowery
BTW - ME's link works now, must have just been down the other day or something. Cleveland's playoff pct is up to 60.3% after the rainout yesterday and the Yankee/Angel losses.
August 31, 2005 at 06:16PM View BBCode
I was just reading about the Pythagorean thing in the Sporting News. Makes a lot of sense.BTW - ME's link works now, must have just been down the other day or something. Cleveland's playoff pct is up to 60.3% after the rainout yesterday and the Yankee/Angel losses.
FiveToolPlayer
Cleveland needs to take care of business and hope the Yankees schedule and injuires catch up with them. The Angels are a different story. I don't see them missing the playoffs.
August 31, 2005 at 06:58PM View BBCode
The Yankees have a tough schedule over the next two weeks. They face the kid from Seattle tonight (King Felix vs Big Unit), then they are at Oakland, at home against their nemesis Tampa Bay, and then Boston. Plus, they just lost Mussina for a start or two.Cleveland needs to take care of business and hope the Yankees schedule and injuires catch up with them. The Angels are a different story. I don't see them missing the playoffs.
tysonlowery
August 31, 2005 at 07:03PM View BBCode
I've been arguing with some guy at Sportsline that the Yankees schedule isn't easy. He thinks they have the easiest schedule remaining.
FiveToolPlayer
August 31, 2005 at 07:58PM View BBCode
He's crazy. Boston has a lot of home games and they have a much better record at home. That favors them. Plus, the Yankees CAN NOT beat the D-Rays for some weird reason.
INDIANSFORLIFE
August 31, 2005 at 08:24PM View BBCode
I have a feeling we are going to snatch up the Central. White Sox have been sucking and are losing today again.
tysonlowery
September 02, 2005 at 04:55PM View formatted
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The Cards are now up to 99.99966
yankeekid
September 02, 2005 at 08:46PM View BBCode
I saw Tysons predictions for who is making the playoffs and even being a huge yankee fan I just cannot see Boston not making the playoffs. I say the Yankees take the wild card Boston takes the east. White Sox central and Aneheim west.
skierdude44
That being said, it's not all bad for the Yanks but a lot of their competitors for the Wild Card have been hot and are relatively healthy. And of course if they don't make the playoffs all hell will break lose and King George will likely go off the deep end. Hopefully, he'll remain calm and they will address their needs appropriately this offseason and not irrationally throw money at unworthy players. And hopefully he doesn't can Torre because that would be a huge mistake.
September 03, 2005 at 03:48PM View BBCode
It's not looking very good for the Yanks right now I'm afraid. Yes, they are just one game out of the Wild Card but their rotation is seriously battered. They're not sure if Mussina will be back as soon as they originally thought, Wright had pitched pretty well since coming off the DL but now who knows what's up with him, nobody knows when/if Pavano will be back, Brown's done for the year (which might actually be more of a plus than a negative), somehow Aaron Small is 5-0 with a 3.18 era but if forced to start for an extended period of time he'll be exposed, the Big Unit has been erratic, and Chacon has been their most consistent starter but he's coming off his worst start with the Yankees and has never been very consistent (or durable) throughout his career. Oh yeah, then there's that rumor that they may sign Ponson which would do anything but help the staff I'm afraid. Then there's the bullpen situation where you have to be concerned about burnout with Gordon and Rivera. While Lawton's addition helped the centerfield situation is still an issue. They have a terrible record in close games and low scoring games, putting a lot of pressure on the offense (atleast that has been a strength this season though). And finally, they haven't beaten the teams that they should (D'rays, Royals, etc.) this season, putting them in a hole and making the games against Boston, Oakland, Anaheim, etc more important than normal with less margin for error.That being said, it's not all bad for the Yanks but a lot of their competitors for the Wild Card have been hot and are relatively healthy. And of course if they don't make the playoffs all hell will break lose and King George will likely go off the deep end. Hopefully, he'll remain calm and they will address their needs appropriately this offseason and not irrationally throw money at unworthy players. And hopefully he doesn't can Torre because that would be a huge mistake.
skierdude44
September 04, 2005 at 02:16AM View BBCode
Well, Aaron Small was fantastic today. So far he's been a great find, but I have a feeling that he's going to come crashing down sometime soon. Hopefully he can ride out this hot streak until the end of the season. Mussina may be out for the rest of the year now so they'll need him to step up big.
yankeekid
Shawn Shicon although his last start was pretty pathetic has been great.
Jarrot Wright has been phenomenal since he came back from his injury and I think hes ok after that line drive he took last start.
Small even though you might think he will come crashing down has not had a very bad start yet (I dont think...) and it seems to me that although it took him long enough he has finally found out how to pitch.
Johnson has been very steaky and not at all what we were hoping for him to be but his last few starts have been great and looking at what he did last year it just doesn't make sense that he would fall apart this year. I am praying and hoping that he pulls together and does great for the rest of the season.
I think Leiter should be kicked out of the rotation and I don't know why we were starting him instead of Small... but he is our number 5 starter and you can't expect him to be amazing. I am hoping that Wang will come back soon and replace Leiter in the rotation. I haven't heard how he's doing lately but if he comes back that would be a huge break for the Yankees. Wang was so great before his injury and I hope that if he comes back he will be the same great pitcher that he was.
So, if the Yankees catch all their breaks they should be able to make it the playoffs. They have a superb offense to back up the pitching and they are allowed to lose a game every now and then. We don't have to be perfect.
September 04, 2005 at 07:10PM View BBCode
Although none of these guys are much of a sure bet, if the Yankees pitching staff keeps doing as well as they've been doing they should be able to squeeze through for the wild card.Shawn Shicon although his last start was pretty pathetic has been great.
Jarrot Wright has been phenomenal since he came back from his injury and I think hes ok after that line drive he took last start.
Small even though you might think he will come crashing down has not had a very bad start yet (I dont think...) and it seems to me that although it took him long enough he has finally found out how to pitch.
Johnson has been very steaky and not at all what we were hoping for him to be but his last few starts have been great and looking at what he did last year it just doesn't make sense that he would fall apart this year. I am praying and hoping that he pulls together and does great for the rest of the season.
I think Leiter should be kicked out of the rotation and I don't know why we were starting him instead of Small... but he is our number 5 starter and you can't expect him to be amazing. I am hoping that Wang will come back soon and replace Leiter in the rotation. I haven't heard how he's doing lately but if he comes back that would be a huge break for the Yankees. Wang was so great before his injury and I hope that if he comes back he will be the same great pitcher that he was.
So, if the Yankees catch all their breaks they should be able to make it the playoffs. They have a superb offense to back up the pitching and they are allowed to lose a game every now and then. We don't have to be perfect.
jetpac
You could say that about practically every team in baseball. I love the Yanks, but you can't base much on "catching all the breaks"
September 04, 2005 at 07:40PM View BBCode
"if the Yankees catch all their breaks"You could say that about practically every team in baseball. I love the Yanks, but you can't base much on "catching all the breaks"
yankeekid
September 04, 2005 at 07:56PM View BBCode
Well i said "they are allowed to lose". I am hoping they catch most of their breaks but if they don't that doesn't exclude them from making the playoffs. If they do catch all their breaks they would easily win not only the wild card but the division.
skierdude44
Hopefully Chacon bounces back tonight. I was at the game against Toronto (the start before his last start) and he was alittle shaky at times. He walked 4, struck out 6, hit two batters, got into bases loaded jams twice (and walked in a run in one of those situations), but only gave up 2 runs. During his time in Colorado he got a reputation for flaming out towards the end of the year. This was the reason they tried him at the closer role. Hopefully he's not going through a dead arm period now. I think tonight will be a good indicator of what we can expect from him for the rest of the year.
September 04, 2005 at 09:13PM View BBCode
I'm pretty sure that Wang is done for the year. And, despite his last start, Al Leiter hasn't been that bad since coming over. I believe it was the start before this last one where he allowed only 2 runs and pitched into the 8th. Actually, I just looked it up and he had pitched back-to-back quality starts before that debacle in Oakland. The reason that Leiter remained in the rotation and Small moved to the bullpen when Wright came back was because over the course of his career Leiter has been a proven big game pitcher with close to 2500 career innings pitched to stake his reputation on. And while he clearly isn't the same pitcher that he was in his prime, he has shown flashes of his old self (his first start in Boston, for example). Aaron Small is a relatively unproven commodity. Only 262 career innings pitched and he had never really put up these type of numbers before. And of course while his numbers are fantastic it's only 44.2 innings which is a very small sample size.Hopefully Chacon bounces back tonight. I was at the game against Toronto (the start before his last start) and he was alittle shaky at times. He walked 4, struck out 6, hit two batters, got into bases loaded jams twice (and walked in a run in one of those situations), but only gave up 2 runs. During his time in Colorado he got a reputation for flaming out towards the end of the year. This was the reason they tried him at the closer role. Hopefully he's not going through a dead arm period now. I think tonight will be a good indicator of what we can expect from him for the rest of the year.
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