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bpearly69

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NFL Playoffs

January 05, 2011 at 05:35PM View BBCode

What ya guys think?

dirtdevil

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January 05, 2011 at 05:42PM View BBCode

i think:

ravens over chiefs
jets over colts
saints over seahawks
eagles over packers

pats over jets
steelers over ravens
falcons over saints
eagles over bears

pats over steelers
falcons over eagles

pats over falcons

(i've probably got too many high seeds advancing but what can you do?)

thatrogue

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January 07, 2011 at 08:37AM View BBCode

I think I will be happy if the Patriots lose and unhappy if they don't. Anyone else winning (except the 7-9 Seahawks) is okay by me.

barterer2002

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January 07, 2011 at 02:08PM View BBCode

Ravens over Chiefs
Colts over Jets

Saints over Seahawks
Eagles over Packers

Ravens over Patriots
Steelers over Colts

Falcons over Saints
Eagles over Bears

Steelers over Ravens
Falcons over Eagles

Steelers over Falcons

Hamilton2

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My Opinion

January 07, 2011 at 11:33PM View BBCode

Wildcard
Colts 24 - Jets 16
Chiefs 13 - Ravens 10
Saints 35 - Seahawks 13
Packers 38 - Eagles 34

Divisional
Steelers 20 - Chiefs 17
Patriots 27 - Colts 24
Saints 23 - Bears 17
Packers 30 - Falcons 28

Championship
Patriots 21 - Steelers 18
Packers 27 - Saints 24

Super Bowl
Packers 34 - Patriots 33

[Edited on 1-8-2011 by Hamilton2]

Hamilton2

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Projection Engine

January 08, 2011 at 05:21AM View BBCode

OK, so, I'm a bit of a football dork, and I've created a very simple projection engine using some statistical analysis to run this year's playoffs, here are the results according to my algorithm:

Wildcard
Indianapolis 24 - New York 23
Baltimore 21 - Kansas City 20
New Orleans 24 - Seattle 20
Green Bay 24 - Philadelphia 22

Divisional
Pittsburgh 23 - Indianapolis 22
New England 25 - Baltimore 21
New Orleans 22 - Chicago 20
Green Bay 22 - Atlanta 21 (actually, this game is projected as only a .6 advantage for the Packers)

Conference
New England 24 - Pittsburgh 21
Green Bay 23 - New Orleans 17

Super Bowl
New England 24 - Green Bay 22 (about a 1.5 point advantage for the Patriots here)

jetpac

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January 08, 2011 at 08:37AM View BBCode

Hamilton, wow, that engine projects some really close games

dirtdevil

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January 08, 2011 at 02:10PM View BBCode

it does. although so did he, except in seattle.

bpearly69

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January 08, 2011 at 11:46PM View BBCode

:lol:

Hamilton2

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January 09, 2011 at 12:51AM View BBCode

Stupid Seahawks. :mad:

dmjhenry99

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January 09, 2011 at 01:10AM View BBCode

You're all wrong, The Seahawks won already

jetpac

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January 09, 2011 at 01:37AM View BBCode

well I can honestly say, I did not see that coming

shawnwoods15

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January 09, 2011 at 02:02AM View BBCode

I heard an analysis that was pretty good. The Saints defense hinges on blitzing the hell out of the QB. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the best QBs at recognizing and beating the blitz. I still laughed when I heard it because I thought there was no way the Seahawks could score as many points as the Saints.

dirtdevil

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January 09, 2011 at 03:03AM View BBCode

not having seen any of the game, and not knowing anything about it other than the score, i just have to say....what the hell was that???




(also, somewhere benne and whiskey are very drunk and very, very happy)

dirtdevil

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January 09, 2011 at 04:28AM View BBCode

at least i got the jets right.

Hamilton2

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January 09, 2011 at 04:35AM View BBCode

And I'm 0-2 in both sets of picks. Ouch. (The projection engine that I ran the games through has a 75% success rate on all games for 3+ seasons, including playoffs, and typically is more accurate later in the season. I hate anomalous days.)

Penguin

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January 09, 2011 at 04:46AM View BBCode

As long as the Jets won tonight, I'm happy.

dirtdevil

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January 09, 2011 at 04:56AM View BBCode

just out of curiousity ham, is that 75% on outcome only or 75% on outcome and score together?

bpearly69

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January 09, 2011 at 04:39PM View BBCode

for yahoosports, I picked the Seahawks to beat the spread, they were what? an 11 point underdog? i didn't expect them to win but i didn't expect the saints to blow them out, was a great game, as far as the jets, i expected it to be a end of the game field goal type of thing, i expected the colts and saints to win, but not by what they were favored by, so technically for yahoo sports i am 2-0 on my picks for beating the spreads :)

bpearly69

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January 09, 2011 at 08:11PM View BBCode

well looks like ravens-steelers

Hamilton2

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January 10, 2011 at 12:38AM View BBCode

Originally posted by dirtdevil
just out of curiousity ham, is that 75% on outcome only or 75% on outcome and score together?

75% on the spread, not the actual scores. So ... Green Bay minus 2 should still beat the Eagles.

I'm at 0-3, my projections are 1-2.

dirtdevil

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January 10, 2011 at 02:51AM View BBCode

i'm perfect in the afc and perfect the wrong way in the nfc.

bpearly69

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January 17, 2011 at 12:51AM View BBCode

I know I'm a huge fan of the Patriots, but that's two seasons where they are too damn cocky thinking they can't be beat, Superbowl against the Giants and this game, you could see it

thatrogue

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January 17, 2011 at 01:31AM View BBCode

Alternately, it is proven once again that if you hit Brady, you can totally disrupt their offense, just like with any other QB.

(Although, as much as I hate to say it, Rothelesberger can play well even when getting hit a lot.)

[Edited on 1-17-2011 by thatrogue]

bpearly69

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January 17, 2011 at 01:36AM View BBCode

Just seemed like they had chances they could of taken advantage of, he didn't have a horrible game, but wasn't amazing, the good thing is they are still a very young team so it's not like they are going to stop competing anytime soon, well unless there is a lockout.

I hate the Steelers and Jets, so I'm hoping Braylon Edwards breaks his leg when he does one of his cartwheel backflips and Ben gets crushed, overall, I'm picking the Jets to win and the Packers to beat the Bears