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tworoosters
Spider Herline takes the long snap.
Spider Herline kicks a 63-yard punt.
Kick hang time: 4.25 seconds.
The ball is caught at the NO 19 by John Lee.
Lee is downed without a return.
Even if the kicking team got a 10 yard start before the ball was kicked and were unimpeded they still would not have been able to cover 63 yards in enough time to force the returner down with no return .
Since they were in a tight protect formation it is totally illogical that there is no return on this punt.
Illogical Punt Return result
January 04, 2012 at 12:28AM View BBCode
4th and 3 for the Coyotes, they huddle and line up in a Punt Tight Protect; the Bontemps Roulez line up in a Punt Return.Spider Herline takes the long snap.
Spider Herline kicks a 63-yard punt.
Kick hang time: 4.25 seconds.
The ball is caught at the NO 19 by John Lee.
Lee is downed without a return.
Even if the kicking team got a 10 yard start before the ball was kicked and were unimpeded they still would not have been able to cover 63 yards in enough time to force the returner down with no return .
Since they were in a tight protect formation it is totally illogical that there is no return on this punt.
RichNYC1
Im more concerned about the QB checkdowns lately. My guy in BPFL throws nothing but 1 and 2 yard passes and I see it with other QB´s too, we should look at that. For better or worse I think a team should run what´s been called. I know its part of the ARG factor, but I dont think it takes down and distance in to account correctly
January 04, 2012 at 12:47AM View BBCode
That one is at least debatable, I mean maybe he was backpeddling and lost footing as he caught it, it actually could happen, not often, but it could.Im more concerned about the QB checkdowns lately. My guy in BPFL throws nothing but 1 and 2 yard passes and I see it with other QB´s too, we should look at that. For better or worse I think a team should run what´s been called. I know its part of the ARG factor, but I dont think it takes down and distance in to account correctly
Hamilton2
January 04, 2012 at 12:49AM View BBCode
My first game in Epsilon my QB had a 62.5% completion rating at an average of 2.6 yards per attempt. Mostly due to check downs and un-called "screens." However, I did make some adjustments to my play calling and haven't had as severe an issue since then. So maybe it was just me doing something wrong.
RichNYC1
January 04, 2012 at 03:20AM View BBCode
Thats the thing, Hammy, you cant tell, but I think it has to do with the defense staying in deep coverage. I know guys play a lot of deep coverage against me and quite frankly thats smart because I have WR´s who can catch it but arent great tackle breakers. Thats where allowing the computer to make the decison falls short in my eyes. The idea is for the offense to figure out how to beat the defense. Then the defense has to adjust to stop the O. By letting the computer decide the next step, checking down as often as it does, takes the initiative (the counter moves) away from the owners, I think thats bad
RichNYC1
The good news is soon we should be able to draw up our own patterens, maybe that will be the solution
January 04, 2012 at 03:29AM View BBCode
And now that I think about it....... where is the penalty (INT´s) on the agressive guys? If they are throwing in to coverage that other guys arent shouldnt they see much higher Int %´s? Other than the old Arkansas Abusers, I dont see a great difference in INT rates for guys that are much more aggresive, especailly considering how close most QB´s are in talent.The good news is soon we should be able to draw up our own patterens, maybe that will be the solution
Admin
This is a consequence of my "anything can happen in football" approach.
The predicted result was for a regular return (47.96% chance) or long return (41.25% chance), so there was overall nearly a 90% chance of a return of 5 to 40 yards. There was also a 3.12% chance of a touchdown return and a 1.5% chance for a return that was forced out of bounds. Being downed without a return had only a 4.56% chance in occurring, but that's what came up. (Other possibilities were a fumble at 1.44%, or the offense getting to the ball first and downing it at 0.24%.)
Fair catch had actually been ruled out as a possibility; perhaps if fair catch gets ruled out then downed without a return and offense downs the ball should also be cut to 0.
--Chris
January 04, 2012 at 05:59AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
4th and 3 for the Coyotes, they huddle and line up in a Punt Tight Protect; the Bontemps Roulez line up in a Punt Return.
Spider Herline takes the long snap.
Spider Herline kicks a 63-yard punt.
Kick hang time: 4.25 seconds.
The ball is caught at the NO 19 by John Lee.
Lee is downed without a return.
Even if the kicking team got a 10 yard start before the ball was kicked and were unimpeded they still would not have been able to cover 63 yards in enough time to force the returner down with no return .
Since they were in a tight protect formation it is totally illogical that there is no return on this punt.
This is a consequence of my "anything can happen in football" approach.
The predicted result was for a regular return (47.96% chance) or long return (41.25% chance), so there was overall nearly a 90% chance of a return of 5 to 40 yards. There was also a 3.12% chance of a touchdown return and a 1.5% chance for a return that was forced out of bounds. Being downed without a return had only a 4.56% chance in occurring, but that's what came up. (Other possibilities were a fumble at 1.44%, or the offense getting to the ball first and downing it at 0.24%.)
Fair catch had actually been ruled out as a possibility; perhaps if fair catch gets ruled out then downed without a return and offense downs the ball should also be cut to 0.
--Chris
Admin
--Chris
January 05, 2012 at 01:04AM View BBCode
OK, this was a really bad play. Looking at the logs, the punt returner had a minimum lead time of nearly 4 seconds on the gunners. I am going to calculate the minimum distance a punt returner can cover in his minimum lead time (without blocking) and make that the minimum return yardage.--Chris
tworoosters
4th and 13 for the Atom Smashers, they huddle and line up in a Punt Tight Wing; the Bontemps Roulez line up in a Punt Return.
Mouthbreather takes the long snap.
Mouthbreather kicks a 57-yard punt.
Kick hang time: 4.56 seconds.
The ball is caught at the NO 21 by John Lee.
Lee is downed without a return.
Not quite as bad, 57 yards and 4.56 as opposed to 63 and 4.25, but still pretty unlikely.
January 21, 2012 at 08:47PM View BBCode
Hey Chris, just happened again.4th and 13 for the Atom Smashers, they huddle and line up in a Punt Tight Wing; the Bontemps Roulez line up in a Punt Return.
Mouthbreather takes the long snap.
Mouthbreather kicks a 57-yard punt.
Kick hang time: 4.56 seconds.
The ball is caught at the NO 21 by John Lee.
Lee is downed without a return.
Not quite as bad, 57 yards and 4.56 as opposed to 63 and 4.25, but still pretty unlikely.
Admin
--Chris
January 23, 2012 at 06:07AM View BBCode
OK, the minimum punt return fix is in. The math calculates how much of a minimum lead the punt returner has on the gunners (assuming no blocking) after catching the ball and getting stable control of it (this is a function of catching and kick return), and then calculates the distance that player can cover in that time from a dead stop. If it's over 5 yards, then this distance becomes the absolute minimum possible punt return. I store the result of these calculations in my logs in case we need to analyze it later. This will be most visible on "tight protect" kicks at low angles.--Chris
Admin
[Edited on 1-28-2012 by Admin]
January 26, 2012 at 07:20PM View BBCode
Do long punts look better?[Edited on 1-28-2012 by Admin]
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