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I could mbe mistaken...
January 05, 2013 at 08:57PM View BBCode
but I think that passing in zeta is going amok all over again...
Admin
There is a point below which a team's numbers aren't used in the league averaging, to account for teams that are legitimately bad and/or playing sub-optimally, like throwing long all the time. Without that, the top end would be pushed above reality. For that reason, most leagues will lag below NFL averages. There's really no way to balance it perfectly without forcing bad teams or bad strategies to be good.
That said, fully half the teams in Zeta are below that threshold this year. I'll see if there is anything I can do with it without skewing everyone else's numbers.
Chris
January 05, 2013 at 10:00PM View BBCode
The top end looks okay but there are a lot of teams on the bottom that look bad...There is a point below which a team's numbers aren't used in the league averaging, to account for teams that are legitimately bad and/or playing sub-optimally, like throwing long all the time. Without that, the top end would be pushed above reality. For that reason, most leagues will lag below NFL averages. There's really no way to balance it perfectly without forcing bad teams or bad strategies to be good.
That said, fully half the teams in Zeta are below that threshold this year. I'll see if there is anything I can do with it without skewing everyone else's numbers.
Chris
Admin
Essentially when there is too big a gap between the best and worst QB's, the numbers fall victim to small sample size errors; in this case, the math on the small sample size indicated that completions needed to be forced down league wide when in fact the opposite was the case. I need to adjust the bottom limiter to make sure it always picks up at least 75% of the QB's in the league.
Chris
January 05, 2013 at 10:08PM View BBCode
I think I see the problem... working on a potential solution.Essentially when there is too big a gap between the best and worst QB's, the numbers fall victim to small sample size errors; in this case, the math on the small sample size indicated that completions needed to be forced down league wide when in fact the opposite was the case. I need to adjust the bottom limiter to make sure it always picks up at least 75% of the QB's in the league.
Chris
Admin
Chris
January 05, 2013 at 10:09PM View BBCode
The other problem is that the sample is made up of a lot of non-qualifying QB's that is also skewing the sample, as the best ones are included and the worst are excluded.Chris
RichNYC1
One thing I would like to see is a few more broken tackles on the short throws. Seems like the blitzing is causing a lot of check down throws and anything under 3-4 yards rarely goes any further. Maybe those short completions should have a better YAC because when you beat the blitz there are fewer defenders available.
January 06, 2013 at 01:46AM View BBCode
I cant argue those points, but what I see is that heavy blitzing doesnt seem to result in as many screens anymore and once you take out those long gainers, it makes offense much harder.One thing I would like to see is a few more broken tackles on the short throws. Seems like the blitzing is causing a lot of check down throws and anything under 3-4 yards rarely goes any further. Maybe those short completions should have a better YAC because when you beat the blitz there are fewer defenders available.
nhat8121
January 07, 2013 at 02:18AM View BBCode
not sure if correct, but it seems that whenever weather is bad, there are more passing attempts...
Splinter
Just as there is a checkbox for increased running with a xx point lead, there should be a checkbox for more conservative play calling in poor weather.
January 10, 2013 at 10:45PM View BBCode
likely because bad weather makes for bad passing which makes for worse down and distance situations which makes for more passing.Just as there is a checkbox for increased running with a xx point lead, there should be a checkbox for more conservative play calling in poor weather.
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