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The question is, "What would the pros do"?
The answer, near as I can tell, is flip a coin.
To analyze this, I looked at all of the penalties for 2012. To cut the data down to a reasonable number, I looked only at offensive holding calls that happened on 3rd down. There were 106 such calls that weren't offset by other penalties. Exactly 50% of them (53) were accepted and 50% declined.
Here is the breakdown by Yards to Go:
1: 0 declined, 2 accepted
2: 4 declined, 4 accepted
3: 2 declined, 3 accepted
4: 3 declined, 3 accepted
5: 3 declined, 3 accepted
6: 3 declined, 4 accepted
7: 7 declined, 3 accepted
8: 2 declined, 7 accepted
9: 2 declined, 2 accepted
10: 9 declined, 10 accepted
11: 3 declined, 3 accepted
12: 5 declined, 1 accepted
13: 0 declined, 2 accepted
14: 1 declined, 0 accepted
15: 3 declined, 1 accepted
16: 2 declined, 0 accepted
17: 1 declined, 0 accepted
19: 1 declined, 0 accepted
21: 0 declined, 2 accepted
25: 2 declined, 0 accepted
I'm starting to go through them by distance to goal but there is equally no pattern here that I can see yet. It looks like whether to accept or not is just the preference of the coach.
So I am going to have to put in coach preferences for this, but I'm not even sure what the preference should be. Even trying to come up with sample questions is blocking me because there is no obvious answer.
So if you had real-time control of your team, and an offensive holding call happened on 3rd down, what would YOU do? Always accept and push back the offense? Always decline and force 4th down? Accept only if accepting pushes them out of field goal range? Accept only on 3rd and short? Accept only on 3rd and long?
I've gone round and round on this and my brain is mush now.... I don't even know what a reasonable default would be anymore.
Chris
Third down penalties revisited
October 22, 2013 at 02:59PM View BBCode
Back when Football got started, all third down offensive penalties were simply declined. At some point people wanted some of these accepted, so I added in logic to accept them. The logic has never worked well, though, and most 3rd down offensive penalties are accepted now.The question is, "What would the pros do"?
The answer, near as I can tell, is flip a coin.
To analyze this, I looked at all of the penalties for 2012. To cut the data down to a reasonable number, I looked only at offensive holding calls that happened on 3rd down. There were 106 such calls that weren't offset by other penalties. Exactly 50% of them (53) were accepted and 50% declined.
Here is the breakdown by Yards to Go:
1: 0 declined, 2 accepted
2: 4 declined, 4 accepted
3: 2 declined, 3 accepted
4: 3 declined, 3 accepted
5: 3 declined, 3 accepted
6: 3 declined, 4 accepted
7: 7 declined, 3 accepted
8: 2 declined, 7 accepted
9: 2 declined, 2 accepted
10: 9 declined, 10 accepted
11: 3 declined, 3 accepted
12: 5 declined, 1 accepted
13: 0 declined, 2 accepted
14: 1 declined, 0 accepted
15: 3 declined, 1 accepted
16: 2 declined, 0 accepted
17: 1 declined, 0 accepted
19: 1 declined, 0 accepted
21: 0 declined, 2 accepted
25: 2 declined, 0 accepted
I'm starting to go through them by distance to goal but there is equally no pattern here that I can see yet. It looks like whether to accept or not is just the preference of the coach.
So I am going to have to put in coach preferences for this, but I'm not even sure what the preference should be. Even trying to come up with sample questions is blocking me because there is no obvious answer.
So if you had real-time control of your team, and an offensive holding call happened on 3rd down, what would YOU do? Always accept and push back the offense? Always decline and force 4th down? Accept only if accepting pushes them out of field goal range? Accept only on 3rd and short? Accept only on 3rd and long?
I've gone round and round on this and my brain is mush now.... I don't even know what a reasonable default would be anymore.
Chris
Closer
Can you work out language that could work in special rules? That would allow individual owners multiple settings to fit different areas of the field.
October 22, 2013 at 03:51PM View BBCode
If its 3rd down and declining the penalty leave opponent near or outside the limits of a FG, then I'm declining no matter the yardage. Not giving him a second chance to get a chance at a first down.Can you work out language that could work in special rules? That would allow individual owners multiple settings to fit different areas of the field.
Closer
October 22, 2013 at 03:53PM View BBCode
I'd probably also decline if a I had a guy backed up to his own goaline.
casperthegm
The only exception would be if declining the penalty where it's fourth and short and they are on the fringe of fg range (my 25-40 yd line). Then I'd be inclined to accept, to try to push them out of range.
October 22, 2013 at 04:55PM View BBCode
I would typically decline the penalty if it's going to bring up 4th down. I want them to punt- don't want to give them another shot at a first down.The only exception would be if declining the penalty where it's fourth and short and they are on the fringe of fg range (my 25-40 yd line). Then I'd be inclined to accept, to try to push them out of range.
tworoosters
October 22, 2013 at 08:11PM View BBCode
I'm going to decline unless it will bring up 4th and less than a yard, or unless the penalty will push them out of realistic FG range.Pages: 1