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nuzzy62
Normally, I wouldn't consider him among the greats, but because he got his MLB start at 19, he's slowly approaching HOF landmarks.
He'll surely pass 400 homers this season, and it's not out of the realm he'll get 500 since he only needs 500 and he's 35.
He's also 2+ seasons away from 3,000 hits.
[url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?redir]Adrian Beltre stats[/url]
What do you think? He goes 500 Homers and 3,000 homers, will he be a lock for the Hall? Should he be?
Adrian Beltre, a HOFer?
October 10, 2014 at 07:36PM View BBCode
Adrian Beltre had one monster season with the Dodgers, a few good seasons with the Rangers and an all-star four times in the new inflated all-star system.Normally, I wouldn't consider him among the greats, but because he got his MLB start at 19, he's slowly approaching HOF landmarks.
He'll surely pass 400 homers this season, and it's not out of the realm he'll get 500 since he only needs 500 and he's 35.
He's also 2+ seasons away from 3,000 hits.
[url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?redir]Adrian Beltre stats[/url]
What do you think? He goes 500 Homers and 3,000 homers, will he be a lock for the Hall? Should he be?
dirtdevil
October 10, 2014 at 07:43PM View BBCode
my initial reaction is, 'of course not'. but then I actually look at his career and I have to think, "well, maybe." he's performed at a pretty high level for a very long time. he's probably the best player at his position of his generation and he's been an elite hitter on every team he's played for. If he retires now, I think he gets in after a couple of ballots. if he plays another 3-4 years at a similar level, I think he's a lock.
nuzzy62
He's never been considered one of the best of his generation, good, but not great. Yet, he keeps piling up the numbers.
he's less than 400 hits away from 3,000 and if he averages 170, which is less than what he's done recently over the next four seasons, he'll wind up around 3,200 and could end up being in the top 10.
He's five homers away from 400 and 105 away from 500.
October 10, 2014 at 07:50PM View BBCode
He's had a sort of Don sutton-type career for a hitter.He's never been considered one of the best of his generation, good, but not great. Yet, he keeps piling up the numbers.
he's less than 400 hits away from 3,000 and if he averages 170, which is less than what he's done recently over the next four seasons, he'll wind up around 3,200 and could end up being in the top 10.
He's five homers away from 400 and 105 away from 500.
nuzzy62
October 10, 2014 at 07:54PM View BBCode
He's also 77th in RBI with 1384. Four seasons of 70 RBI would put him in the the top 30. He's 430 RBi away from 20th (Frank Robinson) and 311 RBI away from 25th (Cal Ripken).
tworoosters
Currently his contract ends after 2015 but if he makes 600 plate appearances in 2015 then it automatically vests for another $16M so he would be guaranteed to play 2 more years . After 2016 he will likely find himself short of 3,000 hits by around 40-60 hits depending on health but he'll be a 37 year old free agent with Scott Boras as his agent .
He's had such a strange career, a regular at 20 he had the monster year in LA in his walk year of 2004 and then was good, but not great, in Seattle before signing the one year "show me" deal in Boston and making his first All Star team, then signing a big deal ion Texas and earning every dollar while making three more All Stare teams. He's always been a great glove man and his cumulative offensive numbers are putting him in range to be an easy choice.
However I honestly have no idea what makes a Hall of Famer anymore, Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell both got less than 50% in the last ballot despite numbers that are easily HOF worthy so who knows .
October 11, 2014 at 12:06AM View BBCode
There is only one player in MLB history with 3,000 hits and 400 homeres who isn't in the Hall and that's Rafael Palmiero. Assuming Beltre reaches 3,000 hits he's a lock but whether or not that happens will depend on his contract status.Currently his contract ends after 2015 but if he makes 600 plate appearances in 2015 then it automatically vests for another $16M so he would be guaranteed to play 2 more years . After 2016 he will likely find himself short of 3,000 hits by around 40-60 hits depending on health but he'll be a 37 year old free agent with Scott Boras as his agent .
He's had such a strange career, a regular at 20 he had the monster year in LA in his walk year of 2004 and then was good, but not great, in Seattle before signing the one year "show me" deal in Boston and making his first All Star team, then signing a big deal ion Texas and earning every dollar while making three more All Stare teams. He's always been a great glove man and his cumulative offensive numbers are putting him in range to be an easy choice.
However I honestly have no idea what makes a Hall of Famer anymore, Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell both got less than 50% in the last ballot despite numbers that are easily HOF worthy so who knows .
dirtdevil
[Edited on 10-11-2014 by dirtdevil]
October 11, 2014 at 01:38AM View BBCode
bagwell is a power hitter who put on large amounts of muscle while playing in the steroid era. even in the absence of evidence, he's tainted by association. raines played the most significant part of his career in montreal, a city which most American writers tried their best to ignore when they had a team. he's invisible.[Edited on 10-11-2014 by dirtdevil]
mr1313
October 11, 2014 at 01:42AM View BBCode
The Rock deserves to be in and I don't beat the table for many HOF'ers. There are far too many good but not great players in the hall but I know Raines is worthy.
tworoosters
Joseph McCarthy would've loved the new Hall of Fame voting.
October 11, 2014 at 02:23PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
bagwell is a power hitter who put on large amounts of muscle while playing in the steroid era. even in the absence of evidence, he's tainted by association.
Joseph McCarthy would've loved the new Hall of Fame voting.
dirtdevil
very likely. I'm just saying what I think is, not what I think should be.
October 11, 2014 at 02:40PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
Originally posted by dirtdevil
bagwell is a power hitter who put on large amounts of muscle while playing in the steroid era. even in the absence of evidence, he's tainted by association.
Joseph McCarthy would've loved the new Hall of Fame voting.
very likely. I'm just saying what I think is, not what I think should be.
nuzzy62
Piazza and Biggio also didn't make it. If I remember correctly, there are a lot of worthy names coming up over the next few years so it's not going to get easier.
Potential new guys who could get elected or attract serious votes: Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Pedro Martiniez, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciparra.
I think some HOF voters post a limited ballot which will cause a bit of a logjam.
[Edited on 10-12-2014 by nuzzy62]
October 12, 2014 at 01:11AM View BBCode
Part of the problem with the the [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2014.shtml]Last Hall of Fame ballot[/url] is there were so many worthy candidates on it (and that's not counting the steroid guys).Piazza and Biggio also didn't make it. If I remember correctly, there are a lot of worthy names coming up over the next few years so it's not going to get easier.
Potential new guys who could get elected or attract serious votes: Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Pedro Martiniez, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciparra.
I think some HOF voters post a limited ballot which will cause a bit of a logjam.
[Edited on 10-12-2014 by nuzzy62]
tworoosters
[url=http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/03/three-more-hall-voters-accuse-jeff-bagwell-of-being-a-juicer/]This[/url] is an interesting take on the Bagwell situation and makes my point: If anyone actually had hard evidence of Bagwell, or Biggio, or Piazza, or Pujols, juicing don't you think it would have surfaced by now ? Of course it would, but the "keepers of the light" can just smear these players reputations through innuendo and refuse to vote for them, which is a travesty in my opinion.
Also if Nomar Garciaparra gets Hall of Fame consideration while guys like Raines, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza et al are left on the sidelines then that's it, I'm out of any further discussions of the Hall having any credibility.
October 12, 2014 at 01:38AM View BBCode
Sheffield is one of the poster boys for PEDs, unlike Bagwell who has never had his name attached to any legitimate proof of steroid use, Sheffield was named in the Mitchell report. Sheffield also had a less than chummy relationship with the media.[url=http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/03/three-more-hall-voters-accuse-jeff-bagwell-of-being-a-juicer/]This[/url] is an interesting take on the Bagwell situation and makes my point: If anyone actually had hard evidence of Bagwell, or Biggio, or Piazza, or Pujols, juicing don't you think it would have surfaced by now ? Of course it would, but the "keepers of the light" can just smear these players reputations through innuendo and refuse to vote for them, which is a travesty in my opinion.
Also if Nomar Garciaparra gets Hall of Fame consideration while guys like Raines, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza et al are left on the sidelines then that's it, I'm out of any further discussions of the Hall having any credibility.
dirtdevil
No. I think that there are probably scores or people who owe significant parts of their careers to steroids who have and will continue to successfully keep evidence of their involvement secret.
That I can agree with completely.
October 12, 2014 at 04:07PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
[url=http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/03/three-more-hall-voters-accuse-jeff-bagwell-of-being-a-juicer/]This[/url] is an interesting take on the Bagwell situation and makes my point: If anyone actually had hard evidence of Bagwell, or Biggio, or Piazza, or Pujols, juicing don't you think it would have surfaced by now ?
No. I think that there are probably scores or people who owe significant parts of their careers to steroids who have and will continue to successfully keep evidence of their involvement secret.
Also if Nomar Garciaparra gets Hall of Fame consideration while guys like Raines, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza et al are left on the sidelines then that's it, I'm out of any further discussions of the Hall having any credibility.
That I can agree with completely.
eragon
[Edited on 10-13-2014 by eragon]
October 12, 2014 at 06:00PM View BBCode
To be honest, I have been guilty of this myself (assuming a player took steroids without evidence). Like Beltre in 2004. Is it a coincidence that it was his contract year? Maybe, but these days, I'm cynical.[Edited on 10-13-2014 by eragon]
dirtdevil
October 13, 2014 at 02:16AM View BBCode
that's the problem with the steroid era. it taints everyone, because we just don't know.
YarM80
October 13, 2014 at 04:01PM View BBCode
I don't think you can discuss Beltre's accomplishments without mentioning defense. Not only is he an elite hitter but he's been an elite defender for years now. He may not be Brooks Robinson-esque but the offense and defense combo would be enough for Beltre to get my vote, if I had one.
tm4559
(marking up a good season in a contract year to steroids is pretty lame. I mean, it is so lame.)
((jeff bagwell, not in the HOF, is even more lame. its the lamest.))
(((I take that back, putting in biggio before bagwell would be the lamest. )))
((((raines should of course be in the HOF.)))
October 21, 2014 at 04:16PM View BBCode
beltre should get in pretty easily, the combination of big count and defense and longevity at that position makes it pretty simple. it might not be first ballot, but he will get in.(marking up a good season in a contract year to steroids is pretty lame. I mean, it is so lame.)
((jeff bagwell, not in the HOF, is even more lame. its the lamest.))
(((I take that back, putting in biggio before bagwell would be the lamest. )))
((((raines should of course be in the HOF.)))
tworoosters
October 23, 2014 at 11:55PM View BBCode
What's really sad tm is that of the three guys you mention Biggio is the most likely to make the Hall.
dirtdevil
Biggio does get a bonus for the multiple position thing, but still.
October 24, 2014 at 01:48AM View BBCode
How anyone can elect Craig Biggio before Tim Raines I do not know.Biggio does get a bonus for the multiple position thing, but still.
nuzzy62
According to the Baseball Reference
* = HOFer
10 most similar players to Biggio
Robin Yount (836) *
Derek Jeter (825)
Joe Morgan (779) *
Paul Molitor (778) *
Roberto Alomar (773) *
Cal Ripken (761) *
Johnny Damon (760)
Brooks Robinson (739) *
Lou Whitaker (739)
George Brett (735) *
10 most similar to Raines
Lou Brock (863) *
Kenny Lofton (861)
Max Carey (849) *
Johnny Damon (848)
Willie Davis (838)
Jimmy Ryan (824)
Jose Cruz (822)
Julio Franco (818)
Fred Clarke (816) *
Enos Slaughter (813) *
On the various HOF tests
Black ink: Raines 20 (107 rank), Biggio 17 (134)
Grey ink: Raines 114 (182), Biggio 104 (213)
HOF Monitor: 90 (193), Biggio 169 (68)
Hof Standards: 47 (104) Biggio 57 (50)
October 25, 2014 at 01:13PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
How anyone can elect Craig Biggio before Tim Raines I do not know.
Biggio does get a bonus for the multiple position thing, but still.
According to the Baseball Reference
* = HOFer
10 most similar players to Biggio
Robin Yount (836) *
Derek Jeter (825)
Joe Morgan (779) *
Paul Molitor (778) *
Roberto Alomar (773) *
Cal Ripken (761) *
Johnny Damon (760)
Brooks Robinson (739) *
Lou Whitaker (739)
George Brett (735) *
10 most similar to Raines
Lou Brock (863) *
Kenny Lofton (861)
Max Carey (849) *
Johnny Damon (848)
Willie Davis (838)
Jimmy Ryan (824)
Jose Cruz (822)
Julio Franco (818)
Fred Clarke (816) *
Enos Slaughter (813) *
On the various HOF tests
Black ink: Raines 20 (107 rank), Biggio 17 (134)
Grey ink: Raines 114 (182), Biggio 104 (213)
HOF Monitor: 90 (193), Biggio 169 (68)
Hof Standards: 47 (104) Biggio 57 (50)
tm4559
October 28, 2014 at 03:47PM View BBCode
Roberto Alomar left stuff in the toilet that was better than Biggio.
eragon
Yes, I agree. But these days, I'm not naive anymore. I'm not going to see Jorge Posada hit 60 points higher than his career average in his last contract year at age 35 and just chalk it up to luck. I hope it was, but we have the right to be suspicious at this point.
November 14, 2014 at 01:29AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
(marking up a good season in a contract year to steroids is pretty lame. I mean, it is so lame.)
Yes, I agree. But these days, I'm not naive anymore. I'm not going to see Jorge Posada hit 60 points higher than his career average in his last contract year at age 35 and just chalk it up to luck. I hope it was, but we have the right to be suspicious at this point.
tm4559
November 17, 2014 at 04:43PM View BBCode
shrug. batting average is the thing that has the most luck in it of all the rate stats
bobcat73
Don't you even tell me Expos cause your lying to yourself. Andrea Dawson and Gary Carter were the stars of those Expos teams. Roc might be, should be in based on Stats. Pointing to the guys that are in is the weakest of arguments in my opinion. i also think that all the noise around those arguments has kept Roc out far more than a lack of desire to see him in amongst the voters.
If you cant prove that amongst his peers he belongs in then he does not belong in.
November 20, 2014 at 12:28AM View BBCode
Which team did Tim Raines play on that he was the star of? That's sort of part of the HoF, being Famous for your baseball exploits. I don't recall when Roc met that laughable but relevant criteria.Don't you even tell me Expos cause your lying to yourself. Andrea Dawson and Gary Carter were the stars of those Expos teams. Roc might be, should be in based on Stats. Pointing to the guys that are in is the weakest of arguments in my opinion. i also think that all the noise around those arguments has kept Roc out far more than a lack of desire to see him in amongst the voters.
If you cant prove that amongst his peers he belongs in then he does not belong in.
dirtdevil
November 20, 2014 at 01:56AM View BBCode
Well for starters, Raines is the second greatest lead off hitter of all time. That has to count for him. Second there are I don't know how many guys already in (read-Yankees and dodgers) that don't meet the "star" criteria. Third, both carter and Dawson left well before Raines did.
tworoosters
By '84 it was absolutely Raines' team, Dawson was done by the end of '83, he would have only 1 year with a WAR above 4.0 after 1983 and Carter was gone after 1984 so tell me who exactly was the Expos star between 1985 and 1990, Tim Wallach, Hubie Brooks, Andres Gallaraga ?
Raines career offensive WAR is greater than either Carter or Dawson, his rate stats are better than either one and his performance in his waning years is certainly much better.
While Expos Raines finished top 20 in MVP voting 7 times, Carter 5 and Dawson 2, Raines lead the majors in a major offensive category 9 times as an Expo, Carter once and Dawson twice, Carter and Raines were both All Stars 7 times while Expos, Dawson three times, so who was the star of the Expos ??
November 20, 2014 at 02:16AM View BBCode
Having grown up in the shadow of the Expos and attending 20+ games a year in the early 80s I can assure that Raines was easily as big a star on that team as Carter or Dawson. Raines first season was '81, a year in which he finished top 20 in MVP voting, and runner up for ROY, while playing in 88 games.By '84 it was absolutely Raines' team, Dawson was done by the end of '83, he would have only 1 year with a WAR above 4.0 after 1983 and Carter was gone after 1984 so tell me who exactly was the Expos star between 1985 and 1990, Tim Wallach, Hubie Brooks, Andres Gallaraga ?
Raines career offensive WAR is greater than either Carter or Dawson, his rate stats are better than either one and his performance in his waning years is certainly much better.
While Expos Raines finished top 20 in MVP voting 7 times, Carter 5 and Dawson 2, Raines lead the majors in a major offensive category 9 times as an Expo, Carter once and Dawson twice, Carter and Raines were both All Stars 7 times while Expos, Dawson three times, so who was the star of the Expos ??
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