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tworoosters
For some reason his conditioning dropped to 65% and he was held out of the starting lineup in [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=74155&thid7149]Week 3[/url], I can't see any injury in week #2 so I'm wondering why AFE would just decide he was at 65% for week #3 and wasn't ready to go.
Why didn't he start ?
April 22, 2015 at 06:49PM View BBCode
[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?displaytab=stats&id=570737&statsyear=2070&statstype=reg&statsmode=rec&statsloc=all&statsweather=-1]Kevin Johnston[/url] has been New Orleans starting WR for nine years and, barring injury, has never missed a start.For some reason his conditioning dropped to 65% and he was held out of the starting lineup in [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=74155&thid7149]Week 3[/url], I can't see any injury in week #2 so I'm wondering why AFE would just decide he was at 65% for week #3 and wasn't ready to go.
Admin
So the Sim looks at the last game and the average of the last three games and the higher these numbers are above 14 (for the last game) or 10 (for the three-week average), a Conditioning penalty is applied. Stamina is a factor, too. This prevents overused players from racking up unrealistic Targets numbers. The same thing happens for RBs and carries. I refer to this occasionally as "carryover fatigue".
Chris
[Edited on 4-22-2015 by Admin]
April 22, 2015 at 07:05PM View BBCode
Because he was really busy in weeks 1 and 2. He had 18 targets in the prior game and 13 in the game before that. His Attitude isn't great either. So he had an 18% Conditioning penalty due to overuse, and must have had a 12% hit that week for Attitude resulting in his 65% (down from the default 95%) conditioning in week 3. The average NFL receiver gets 38 targets in a season (2014 data); the highest NFL player in 2014 (Demaryius Thomas) had 284 targets or an average of less than 12 per game.So the Sim looks at the last game and the average of the last three games and the higher these numbers are above 14 (for the last game) or 10 (for the three-week average), a Conditioning penalty is applied. Stamina is a factor, too. This prevents overused players from racking up unrealistic Targets numbers. The same thing happens for RBs and carries. I refer to this occasionally as "carryover fatigue".
Chris
[Edited on 4-22-2015 by Admin]
tworoosters
April 22, 2015 at 07:10PM View BBCode
Thanks for the explanation , just hadn't happened before in eight previous seasons so wondered what caused the conditioning to drop.
shbo2
April 22, 2015 at 07:24PM View BBCode
I'm pretty sure conditioning doesn't reset from the pre-season to the regular season so it you take into account the 9 targets he had in week 4 of the preseason that brings him to a total of 40 over a three week span and probably triggered the "over worked" penalty for WR/RB's. If you look at weeks 14-16 in the 2067 season he was targeted 43 times and was at 73% conditioning for week 17. He's lost 2 points to stamina since then so it probably explains why he dropped below 65%.
Stuthecool626
He had 33 carries in the first game and only had 18 the next because of the heavy workload, so I'm not surprised that said WR was held out of the starting lineup
April 22, 2015 at 07:33PM View BBCode
Shbo and chris do have a point, like my RB Broderick Leblanc http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?displaytab=stats&id=577636&statsyear=2062&statstype=reg&statsmode=rush&statsloc=all&statsweather=-1He had 33 carries in the first game and only had 18 the next because of the heavy workload, so I'm not surprised that said WR was held out of the starting lineup
Admin
Chris
April 22, 2015 at 09:44PM View BBCode
Yes, it does not reset after preseason, but it does take your bye week into account.Chris
tworoosters
Theoretically there should be no difference in energy expended between an incomplete pass and a route where the ball is not thrown to the WR . Some minor contact may be involved but the fact that Johnston had 18 balls thrown his way shouldn't, in my opinion, affect his conditioning.
Perhaps the overworked penalty should be based on actual receptions rather than on attempts .
April 22, 2015 at 09:51PM View BBCode
It's an interesting assumption, however, that a WR will be more fatigued when more balls are thrown his way.Theoretically there should be no difference in energy expended between an incomplete pass and a route where the ball is not thrown to the WR . Some minor contact may be involved but the fact that Johnston had 18 balls thrown his way shouldn't, in my opinion, affect his conditioning.
Perhaps the overworked penalty should be based on actual receptions rather than on attempts .
Admin
Really it should be on patterns run, but patterns run isn't a stat I track. Also, in an absolutely perfect sim it would weight long patterns over short ones. But I think statistically, if you were to compare targets vs either of these other methods, then 80-85% of the time (or more) there would be a correlation to the Targets stat, making it a useful indicator as to when this correction is applied.
We see this same strategy on the baseball side where pitchers are considered "tired" based on batters faced rather than pitch count. I argued with Tyson that it should be based on pitch count and came up with formulas to go to all this effort to simulate actual pitch count based on the batter's contact, etc., but he showed me that more than 90% of the time the pitcher would be pulled at the same time with either formula and the extra math and stats weren't worth the few edge cases where a pitcher would be pulled a batter or two earlier rather than later.
Chris
April 23, 2015 at 03:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
It's an interesting assumption, however, that a WR will be more fatigued when more balls are thrown his way.
Theoretically there should be no difference in energy expended between an incomplete pass and a route where the ball is not thrown to the WR . Some minor contact may be involved but the fact that Johnston had 18 balls thrown his way shouldn't, in my opinion, affect his conditioning.
Perhaps the overworked penalty should be based on actual receptions rather than on attempts .
Really it should be on patterns run, but patterns run isn't a stat I track. Also, in an absolutely perfect sim it would weight long patterns over short ones. But I think statistically, if you were to compare targets vs either of these other methods, then 80-85% of the time (or more) there would be a correlation to the Targets stat, making it a useful indicator as to when this correction is applied.
We see this same strategy on the baseball side where pitchers are considered "tired" based on batters faced rather than pitch count. I argued with Tyson that it should be based on pitch count and came up with formulas to go to all this effort to simulate actual pitch count based on the batter's contact, etc., but he showed me that more than 90% of the time the pitcher would be pulled at the same time with either formula and the extra math and stats weren't worth the few edge cases where a pitcher would be pulled a batter or two earlier rather than later.
Chris
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