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hobos
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4216
"Mazzone, for example, is scarcely mentioned"
"Another 14% as acquired through the Bravesâ?? Latin American scouting pipelines (something which, sadly, is not discussed whatsoever in the book)"
Both these concepts being withheld make me suspision of how good a book on the Braves success is. The quotes he used made it sound like Shanks was just undermining Moneyball rather than proving the Braves' success. Nonetheless, I do want to read it eentually (namely when it's in paperback)
Scout's Honor
July 15, 2005 at 02:59PM View BBCode
Anyone read it? The one review I've read, although biased, really didn't convince me it wa too goodhttp://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4216
"Mazzone, for example, is scarcely mentioned"
"Another 14% as acquired through the Bravesâ?? Latin American scouting pipelines (something which, sadly, is not discussed whatsoever in the book)"
Both these concepts being withheld make me suspision of how good a book on the Braves success is. The quotes he used made it sound like Shanks was just undermining Moneyball rather than proving the Braves' success. Nonetheless, I do want to read it eentually (namely when it's in paperback)
ShaggySanchez
EXCERPT FROM CHAPTER 19: TRADING ADAM AND BUBBA
With the trade of Adam Wainwright, Bubba Nelson assumed the position as the Bravesâ?? best pitching prospect. He went to Spring Training with an outside chance at being Atlantaâ??s fifth starter and perhaps a slightly better shot at winning a bullpen position.
â??I definitely went into spring training with a mindset that I was going to make the team,â?? Nelson says. â??I had a lot of confidence in that. I thought I had a good opportunity with a lot of spots open, regardless of whether I was going to be starting or be coming out of the bullpen. I stepped it up a little bit with my offseason workout routine and I did a lot of work on the side with my pitching mechanics to try to get ready for spring training. I thought I was a highly rated prospect.â??
As spring training progressed, two things became obvious. First, the Braves really wanted Nelson to go back to AAA. He pitched only sparingly in big league games during March. Also, the Braves were having trouble with their bullpen. Schuerholz had signed former Cubs right-hander Antonio Alfonseca and former Marlins left-hander Armando Almanza over the winter to join their bullpen. But Almanza was battling a nagging injury and Alfonseca struggled. He had an ERA of 7.36 in nine games, allowed 18 hits in 11 innings and walked six. Kevin Gryboski, one of the most trusted relievers in Bobby Coxâ??s bullpen the last several years, had some questions with his shoulder. Finally, Trey Hodges, who pitched in 51 games out of the Atlanta bullpen in 2003, struggled with his control by walking 12 batters in 13 innings.
So Schuerholz set his sights on a handful of relievers for a potential trade. The main objects of his desire were Cubs right-hander Juan Cruz, a flamethrower often compared to Pedro Martinez, and Reds righty Chris Reitsma, who possesses one of the best changeups in the game.
When Schuerholz called the Reds, there was instant interest in having discussions. Dan Oâ??Brien had been brought in over the winter as General Manager to help turn the Reds franchise around. He had extensive scouting and player development experience with the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners, and his father, Dan Oâ??Brien, Sr. was a longtime baseball executive with the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, and Angels. Oâ??Brien knew some of the philosophies he wanted to install with the Reds were some of the same beliefs of Schuerholz and the Braves, most notably to accumulate as much young pitching as possible. He got his chance to start the process when Schuerholz called.
â??Organizationally, coming in here and being a newcomer, we had a definite need to develop some starting pitching from within our organization,â?? says Oâ??Brien. â??It had been a deficiency, an acknowledged one. There are very few organizations that would have any sufficient depth in pitching to provide us with two starting pitchers. Thereâ??s no doubt that the Braves do an excellent job of not only identifying but also developing pitchers from within their organization. The trick is to select the right ones.â??
Oâ??Brien and Schuerholz spoke for about a week. As the discussions evolved, a potential deal took a variety of shapes and sizes. The Braves keyed in on Reitsma, while the Reds had two main targets: left-hander Jung Bong, who had spent most of the 2003 season as a reliever in Atlanta, and Bubba Nelson.
â??We were not necessarily predisposed to trade Chris Reitsma,â?? says Oâ??Brien. â??But they had a need in their bullpen to set up Smoltz. We were very forthright in saying that there had to be multiple starting pitchers coming back our way in order to make it work. So we went from that premise. You have prospects classified into different categories based on their future potential. Basically you try to position yourself to be able to acquire as many of the desirable prospects as possible in any given transaction. We had those two individuals in the upper end of their system. Obviously Jung Bong had spent much of the year in 2003 with Atlanta and Bubba Nelson â?? both of whom we view as starters. We knew they would not be of immediate help to our ball club, but we knew that down the line this was a trade that we needed to make.â??
Schuerholz made the deal for Juan Cruz on Thursday, March 25th. Atlanta sent lefty Andy Pratt and AA second baseman Richard Lewis to the Cubs in exchange for the twenty-five year old righthander. The Braves saw Cruz as a pitcher who could either start or relieve, but with a solid rotation, his immediate need would be in the bullpen. Lewis was considered a very solid prospect, but with Marcus Giles entrenched in Atlanta, his road to the majors was blocked. Pratt was simply lost in a numbers game in the Braves bullpen.
Nelson was one of many of the Braves minor leaguers who went to an Orlando restaurant that night to wish Pratt and Lewis well. It was an eerie scene, as the kids were saying goodbye to teammates they had been around for several years. It made many of the prospects wonder who would be next, considering they had lost Wainwright, Pratt, Lewis, and late in the 2003 season, right-handed prospect Matt Belisle in a trade with the Reds. The Braves were using their farm system to improve the big league club, and no one felt safe.
â??I felt I could be traded,â?? Nelson admits, â??but at the same time, I wasnâ??t going to let it bother me because I just had to go out and do what I had to do. I knew anything was up in the air.â??
The next morning, Friday the 26th, Nelson reported to minor league camp. He had pitched well in big league camp, but the Braves felt he needed more time in AAA. Chino Cadahia is the Braves Field Coordinator, essentially in charge of spring training on the minor league side. Chino moves from field to field on a golf cart, organizing the training and monitoring the progress of the players.
But on this morning he had another duty. Nelson was on Field 3 stretching with some of his teammates when he saw Chino calling him over to get in the golf cart.
â??He didnâ??t say anything to me really,â?? Nelson says. â??I kind of knew something was up. I could tell on his face. Heâ??s always got that bright look on his face and heâ??s always saying good things to me, and I didnâ??t hear anything out of him. Normally, heâ??d be talking, but he was just silent. I know Chino better than that. So I knew something was going on.â??
Nelson and Cadahia arrived at the Braves minor league clubhouse at the Disney Complex. Cadahia led Nelson to a back conference room where the coaches usually meet before and after practice. Waiting for him was the Braves Farm Director, Dayton Moore.
â??When I walked in the room Daytonâ??s eyes were red,â?? Nelson explains. â??I could just feel the air was tense as soon as I walked in the room.â??
â??Youâ??ve been traded to the Cincinnati Reds,â?? Dayton told Nelson.
July 15, 2005 at 03:11PM View BBCode
The book talks about traditional scouting practices and is an answer to â??Moneyball,â?? which was written several years ago. â??Scoutâ??s Honorâ?? also talks about the importance of having young pitchers in the farm system available to trade to improve the big league club. In this excerpt, Shanks tells the story of the Chris Reitsma / Bubba Nelson trade from Spring Training of 2004.EXCERPT FROM CHAPTER 19: TRADING ADAM AND BUBBA
With the trade of Adam Wainwright, Bubba Nelson assumed the position as the Bravesâ?? best pitching prospect. He went to Spring Training with an outside chance at being Atlantaâ??s fifth starter and perhaps a slightly better shot at winning a bullpen position.
â??I definitely went into spring training with a mindset that I was going to make the team,â?? Nelson says. â??I had a lot of confidence in that. I thought I had a good opportunity with a lot of spots open, regardless of whether I was going to be starting or be coming out of the bullpen. I stepped it up a little bit with my offseason workout routine and I did a lot of work on the side with my pitching mechanics to try to get ready for spring training. I thought I was a highly rated prospect.â??
As spring training progressed, two things became obvious. First, the Braves really wanted Nelson to go back to AAA. He pitched only sparingly in big league games during March. Also, the Braves were having trouble with their bullpen. Schuerholz had signed former Cubs right-hander Antonio Alfonseca and former Marlins left-hander Armando Almanza over the winter to join their bullpen. But Almanza was battling a nagging injury and Alfonseca struggled. He had an ERA of 7.36 in nine games, allowed 18 hits in 11 innings and walked six. Kevin Gryboski, one of the most trusted relievers in Bobby Coxâ??s bullpen the last several years, had some questions with his shoulder. Finally, Trey Hodges, who pitched in 51 games out of the Atlanta bullpen in 2003, struggled with his control by walking 12 batters in 13 innings.
So Schuerholz set his sights on a handful of relievers for a potential trade. The main objects of his desire were Cubs right-hander Juan Cruz, a flamethrower often compared to Pedro Martinez, and Reds righty Chris Reitsma, who possesses one of the best changeups in the game.
When Schuerholz called the Reds, there was instant interest in having discussions. Dan Oâ??Brien had been brought in over the winter as General Manager to help turn the Reds franchise around. He had extensive scouting and player development experience with the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners, and his father, Dan Oâ??Brien, Sr. was a longtime baseball executive with the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, and Angels. Oâ??Brien knew some of the philosophies he wanted to install with the Reds were some of the same beliefs of Schuerholz and the Braves, most notably to accumulate as much young pitching as possible. He got his chance to start the process when Schuerholz called.
â??Organizationally, coming in here and being a newcomer, we had a definite need to develop some starting pitching from within our organization,â?? says Oâ??Brien. â??It had been a deficiency, an acknowledged one. There are very few organizations that would have any sufficient depth in pitching to provide us with two starting pitchers. Thereâ??s no doubt that the Braves do an excellent job of not only identifying but also developing pitchers from within their organization. The trick is to select the right ones.â??
Oâ??Brien and Schuerholz spoke for about a week. As the discussions evolved, a potential deal took a variety of shapes and sizes. The Braves keyed in on Reitsma, while the Reds had two main targets: left-hander Jung Bong, who had spent most of the 2003 season as a reliever in Atlanta, and Bubba Nelson.
â??We were not necessarily predisposed to trade Chris Reitsma,â?? says Oâ??Brien. â??But they had a need in their bullpen to set up Smoltz. We were very forthright in saying that there had to be multiple starting pitchers coming back our way in order to make it work. So we went from that premise. You have prospects classified into different categories based on their future potential. Basically you try to position yourself to be able to acquire as many of the desirable prospects as possible in any given transaction. We had those two individuals in the upper end of their system. Obviously Jung Bong had spent much of the year in 2003 with Atlanta and Bubba Nelson â?? both of whom we view as starters. We knew they would not be of immediate help to our ball club, but we knew that down the line this was a trade that we needed to make.â??
Schuerholz made the deal for Juan Cruz on Thursday, March 25th. Atlanta sent lefty Andy Pratt and AA second baseman Richard Lewis to the Cubs in exchange for the twenty-five year old righthander. The Braves saw Cruz as a pitcher who could either start or relieve, but with a solid rotation, his immediate need would be in the bullpen. Lewis was considered a very solid prospect, but with Marcus Giles entrenched in Atlanta, his road to the majors was blocked. Pratt was simply lost in a numbers game in the Braves bullpen.
Nelson was one of many of the Braves minor leaguers who went to an Orlando restaurant that night to wish Pratt and Lewis well. It was an eerie scene, as the kids were saying goodbye to teammates they had been around for several years. It made many of the prospects wonder who would be next, considering they had lost Wainwright, Pratt, Lewis, and late in the 2003 season, right-handed prospect Matt Belisle in a trade with the Reds. The Braves were using their farm system to improve the big league club, and no one felt safe.
â??I felt I could be traded,â?? Nelson admits, â??but at the same time, I wasnâ??t going to let it bother me because I just had to go out and do what I had to do. I knew anything was up in the air.â??
The next morning, Friday the 26th, Nelson reported to minor league camp. He had pitched well in big league camp, but the Braves felt he needed more time in AAA. Chino Cadahia is the Braves Field Coordinator, essentially in charge of spring training on the minor league side. Chino moves from field to field on a golf cart, organizing the training and monitoring the progress of the players.
But on this morning he had another duty. Nelson was on Field 3 stretching with some of his teammates when he saw Chino calling him over to get in the golf cart.
â??He didnâ??t say anything to me really,â?? Nelson says. â??I kind of knew something was up. I could tell on his face. Heâ??s always got that bright look on his face and heâ??s always saying good things to me, and I didnâ??t hear anything out of him. Normally, heâ??d be talking, but he was just silent. I know Chino better than that. So I knew something was going on.â??
Nelson and Cadahia arrived at the Braves minor league clubhouse at the Disney Complex. Cadahia led Nelson to a back conference room where the coaches usually meet before and after practice. Waiting for him was the Braves Farm Director, Dayton Moore.
â??When I walked in the room Daytonâ??s eyes were red,â?? Nelson explains. â??I could just feel the air was tense as soon as I walked in the room.â??
â??Youâ??ve been traded to the Cincinnati Reds,â?? Dayton told Nelson.
barterer2002
July 15, 2005 at 03:27PM View BBCode
The thing about all these people trying to prove Moneyball wrong is that they don't understand what Moneyball is about to begin with. To say that moneyball is about on base average and plug in closers is foolishly simplistic. The whole point of Moneyball is that Oakland couldn't afford to get into bidding wars with teams like New York and Boston for the best players in the game, thus they identified key statistical points that they felt were undervalued in the market place such as OB% and WHIP while also identifying overvalued stats like batting average and saves. As the market place changes with Beane disciples now running Boston, Toronto and LA the OB% will become overvalued and, according to Moneyball, the club will have to find something else that is undervalued while selling high on overvalued stats.
FuriousGiorge
July 15, 2005 at 03:30PM View BBCode
True. Except that no sabermetrician worth his salt would ever seriously talk about WHIP, which is solely for fantasy geeks.
ME
For those that don't want to bother reading the long BP article about the book, the article's basic points are that it goes overboard to attack sabermetrics and gives credit to good traditional methods for what really are good business practices - and doesn't do much to explain the difference between Atlanta and TB/KC/etc., the crappy teams that use "traditional" methods of player evaluation.
July 16, 2005 at 05:59AM View BBCode
Toronto, according to BP 05, is not run as a sabermetric organization.For those that don't want to bother reading the long BP article about the book, the article's basic points are that it goes overboard to attack sabermetrics and gives credit to good traditional methods for what really are good business practices - and doesn't do much to explain the difference between Atlanta and TB/KC/etc., the crappy teams that use "traditional" methods of player evaluation.
1tim412
Pedro Martinez.... Yeah, right... The guy isn't even good as a mop-up guy.
July 16, 2005 at 04:51PM View BBCode
Cubs right-hander Juan Cruz, a flamethrower often compared to Pedro Martinez
Pedro Martinez.... Yeah, right... The guy isn't even good as a mop-up guy.
max_fischer
Why is this the case? What metric does a sabermetrician prefer to measure pitcher quality--K/BB ratio? HR ratio? Isn't WHIP a good supplement to that, or do you subscribe to the theory that hits are essentially random?
July 20, 2005 at 09:16PM View BBCode
Originally posted by FuriousGiorge
True. Except that no sabermetrician worth his salt would ever seriously talk about WHIP, which is solely for fantasy geeks.
Why is this the case? What metric does a sabermetrician prefer to measure pitcher quality--K/BB ratio? HR ratio? Isn't WHIP a good supplement to that, or do you subscribe to the theory that hits are essentially random?
FuriousGiorge
July 20, 2005 at 09:41PM View BBCode
Short answer: yes. It's not quite that simple, but hits allowed are incredibly volatile just like batting average for hitters. Besides which, WHIP is just a stupid stat anyway. It's a Frankenstein stat that manages to leave out a lot of important information about a pitcher's performance. It's less useful than ERA in both the long and short term, and way less easy to describe in non-numberical, objective terms (How good is a 1.20 WHIP? What about a 1.30 WHIP? If you say "whip" to a non-fantasy geek, do they punch you in the mouth? I would). If you want to get all sabermetric on a pitcher's ass you can talk about K/9, RA, K/BB ratio and then all sorts of weirdo numbers that no one in their right mind talks about in polite company (SNVA, ARP). So...don't. Especially if you'd ever like to see a woman naked again. Or for the first time.Pages: 1