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Smocko
Blue Jays sign Chan Ho Park
December 06, 2005 at 11:33PM View BBCode
[url=http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051206&content_id=1277144&vkey=hotstove2005&fext=.jsp]5 years, 55 millions[/url]
skierdude44
December 07, 2005 at 12:05AM View BBCode
First B.J. Ryan and now this. J.P. Riccardi is digging himself into a big hole with these contracts, but apparently the Jays' ownership approves because they just extended his contract through 2010. If Burnett ever fully realizes his potential it may end up being a good deal, but he's had a long injury history and hasn't been able to capitalize on his talent yet.
ABDREW
December 07, 2005 at 12:11AM View BBCode
I heard on the radio that there is an out clause for both sides after 3 years
skierdude44
December 07, 2005 at 12:14AM View BBCode
I'm not sure if that's correct. The way I heard it is that Burnett can opt out of the deal after three years, but if he doesn't I believe the Blue Jays are stuck with him for the entire 5 years. I could be wrong about that though.
ABDREW
December 07, 2005 at 12:26AM View BBCode
You are most likely right. If his agent allowed Toronto an out then he is an idiot. this is MLB where contract where every contract is guaranteed. I'm sure there are other teams that offered at least 4 years so to accept a deal that a team can void after 3 years would be a bad move on his part
FiveToolPlayer
It is indeed a player out so if the market goes cookoo or Burnett becomes Cy Young, he can opt out and get more. More likely, he'll be scheduled to have tommy john surgery and will decline to exercise his out.
I think JP is trying to make the BJ's the all initial team with AJ and BJ.
December 07, 2005 at 04:27AM View BBCode
This is a great thread title.It is indeed a player out so if the market goes cookoo or Burnett becomes Cy Young, he can opt out and get more. More likely, he'll be scheduled to have tommy john surgery and will decline to exercise his out.
I think JP is trying to make the BJ's the all initial team with AJ and BJ.
rkinslow19
I guess he's preparing to hoist a USC logo
December 09, 2005 at 12:06PM View BBCode
wow that's YAZ now?I guess he's preparing to hoist a USC logo
tysonlowery
I think they probably could have signed Millwood for the same amount. Maybe I'm wrong.
December 09, 2005 at 04:40PM View BBCode
These contracts the Jays are giving out must be in Canadian Dollars or something.I think they probably could have signed Millwood for the same amount. Maybe I'm wrong.
barterer2002
December 09, 2005 at 04:49PM View BBCode
But why would you possibly want Millwood? He's one of the most overrated pitchers in the majors today by some. He doesn't have heart and is a decent third or fourth starter but fails when asked to do more than that.
tysonlowery
Parks career WHIP is 1.40. His best ERA over the last 4 seasons is 5.46.
December 09, 2005 at 05:00PM View BBCode
Millwood's a good pitcher - his career WHIP is about 1.24. He's probably the best free agent pitcher available this winter.Parks career WHIP is 1.40. His best ERA over the last 4 seasons is 5.46.
tysonlowery
December 09, 2005 at 05:02PM View BBCode
Oops - i suppose I should have clicked the link. I really thought they gave Park that kind of money!
tysonlowery
Wow, I was thinking if Park is worth $11M then Burnett and Millwood are going to get $20M! I'm an idiot.
December 09, 2005 at 05:04PM View BBCode
I'd probably rather have Burnett than Millwood because of his age.Wow, I was thinking if Park is worth $11M then Burnett and Millwood are going to get $20M! I'm an idiot.
barterer2002
December 09, 2005 at 05:13PM View BBCode
Millwood has his role. Its as the 3rd starter. I lost any remaining respect I might have had for him when he had to take a chair out to the on deck circle because it was too humid for him in Florida. What a piece of shit.
lvnwrth
Don Larsen
Gary Gentry
Ruben Gomez
Jose Guzman
Walt Terrell
Joaquin Andujar
Steve Renko
Chuck Estrada
Joe Sparma
Erik Hanson
These guys all have comparability scores of 960 or higher, which means they are very, very similar pitchers. Out of that group, the best 5-season run AFTER AGE 28 belonged to Joaquin Andujar, who won 20 games twice, winning a total of 73 games for St. Louis and Oakland from age 29 to 33. He helped the Cardinals make two World Series and win a championship in 1982. After that, you drop to Walt Terrell, who won 55 games for five teams from age 29 to 33.
What most of these guys have in common is that they had the best years of their careers BEFORE age 28, were injury prone, and retired fairly early. If Burnett turns out to be Andujar, wins twenty a couple of times, and gets the Blue Jays into a World Series or two, then in today's market, $11 million a season isn't an awful deal. If he turns out to be anybody else on that list, it's a disaster.
December 09, 2005 at 06:32PM View BBCode
Here are the ten pitchers who are most similar to AJ Burnett through age 28:Don Larsen
Gary Gentry
Ruben Gomez
Jose Guzman
Walt Terrell
Joaquin Andujar
Steve Renko
Chuck Estrada
Joe Sparma
Erik Hanson
These guys all have comparability scores of 960 or higher, which means they are very, very similar pitchers. Out of that group, the best 5-season run AFTER AGE 28 belonged to Joaquin Andujar, who won 20 games twice, winning a total of 73 games for St. Louis and Oakland from age 29 to 33. He helped the Cardinals make two World Series and win a championship in 1982. After that, you drop to Walt Terrell, who won 55 games for five teams from age 29 to 33.
What most of these guys have in common is that they had the best years of their careers BEFORE age 28, were injury prone, and retired fairly early. If Burnett turns out to be Andujar, wins twenty a couple of times, and gets the Blue Jays into a World Series or two, then in today's market, $11 million a season isn't an awful deal. If he turns out to be anybody else on that list, it's a disaster.
FuriousGiorge
December 09, 2005 at 06:42PM View BBCode
For the most part all of those guys are pre Tommy John surgery pitchers, when an injury like Burnett's would have been a career death sentence. TJ surgery has changed the rules of the game for guys like Burnett, and comparing him to 60's and 70's pitchers who didn't have that opportunity is not terribly instructive.
lvnwrth
This off-season simply validates what the players' union has been saying all along: Given the opportunity to spend foolishly, the owners will always come through. These pitchers this off-season must know exactly how former A's pitcher Mike Norris felt after NOT getting the contract he wanted:
"No problem. I was either going to wake up rich or richer."
[Edited on 12-9-2005 by lvnwrth]
[Edited on 12-9-2005 by lvnwrth]
December 09, 2005 at 07:11PM View BBCode
Fair enough. Let's restrict the discussion to the post-1970 pitchers (Guzman, Terrell, Andujar, and Hanson), and the guys who didn't get hurt (Larsen, Renko). Does that bode lots better for Toronto? I'm not sure it does.This off-season simply validates what the players' union has been saying all along: Given the opportunity to spend foolishly, the owners will always come through. These pitchers this off-season must know exactly how former A's pitcher Mike Norris felt after NOT getting the contract he wanted:
"No problem. I was either going to wake up rich or richer."
[Edited on 12-9-2005 by lvnwrth]
[Edited on 12-9-2005 by lvnwrth]
FuriousGiorge
December 09, 2005 at 07:36PM View BBCode
This is a 28/29 year old pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery, which nowadays means that his elbow is basically set, and any injury concerns he could potentially have would have to be in another part of his arm. That is a huge bonus these days, since TJ surgery is almost routine and it's better to get a guy after it than before. The contract is for 5 years - a decent amount of time but not a ridiculously long one, since he'll still be in the 33/34 range when it's up and therefore not likely to be ineffective simply because of age. Therefore, even if he's only mediocre it's still a tradeable contract, since teams will always take a chance on a league-average pitcher with electric stuff who's under 35. Burnett's strikeout rates have usually been stellar (except for the 2001 season), so there's no concern that he's just gotten hit lucky or benefitted from an exceptional defense. He was well above-average in 2005, another positive sign from a guy getting back from TJ surgery. Bottom line here is that 55 million is a lot of money, and people are going to focus on the fact that he's 49-50 in his career, but there are a lot of positives here and 11 million per year to a pitcher who can potentially be a #1-type starter and who will still be under 35 when the contract is up is not that ridiculous. This is a much more defensible signing than the BJ Ryan deal.
barterer2002
Lvnwrth, the similarity scores are fine up to a point but pitchers can certainly outperform those who are similar early in their careers. Jamie Moyer was most similar at age 28 to [url=http://www.baseballreference.com/k/kekicmi01.shtml]Mike Kekich[/url] who had a career record of 39-51. The most similar pitcher to Phil Neikro at age 28 is [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/womacdo01.shtml]Dooley Womack[/url] who had a 19-18 career record. Even Tommy John, who was an effective pitcher before his surgery, was most similar to [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mitchwi01.shtml]Willie Mitchell[/url] at age 28. The point is that many many many pitchers will mature into stars during their thirties and move into a different group of compariable players.
December 09, 2005 at 08:32PM View BBCode
I really don't have the problem with the Burnett signing that many do. Did Toronto overpay, probably. Would anyone go to a Canadian team in any sport if they weren't overpaid, probably not. The thing about Burnett on the Blue Jays is that he isn't going to have to be the number one starter, the Blue Jays already have that in Halliday so he can be comforable as the number two and right now is probably the best number two starter in the division.Lvnwrth, the similarity scores are fine up to a point but pitchers can certainly outperform those who are similar early in their careers. Jamie Moyer was most similar at age 28 to [url=http://www.baseballreference.com/k/kekicmi01.shtml]Mike Kekich[/url] who had a career record of 39-51. The most similar pitcher to Phil Neikro at age 28 is [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/womacdo01.shtml]Dooley Womack[/url] who had a 19-18 career record. Even Tommy John, who was an effective pitcher before his surgery, was most similar to [url=http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mitchwi01.shtml]Willie Mitchell[/url] at age 28. The point is that many many many pitchers will mature into stars during their thirties and move into a different group of compariable players.
lvnwrth
And I agree with you completely that it's not as bad a deal for the Jays as the Ryan signing. What a waste of money. Proof that almost any halfway decent pitcher (and some who aren't even that good) can close, given the opportunity:
Jeff Shaw
Dave Veres
Bill Caudill
Jeff Russell
Jose Mesa
Dennis Eckersley (who was basically finished as a starter when he moved to the bullpen)
Mike Williams
Eddie Guardado
Mark Davis
Joe Nathan
Jose Jimenez
Mike Jackson
Derrick Turnbow
December 09, 2005 at 08:38PM View BBCode
Well, I suppose that relative to the other stupidity going on, it's not an indefensible deal. It's just a sorry state of affairs when owners are willing to give a 5-year, $55 million deal to a pitcher with a sub-.500 career record who walked out on his team last year. It certainly can't be any worse a deal than Park has been for Texas, or Darren Dreifort for the Dodgers.And I agree with you completely that it's not as bad a deal for the Jays as the Ryan signing. What a waste of money. Proof that almost any halfway decent pitcher (and some who aren't even that good) can close, given the opportunity:
Jeff Shaw
Dave Veres
Bill Caudill
Jeff Russell
Jose Mesa
Dennis Eckersley (who was basically finished as a starter when he moved to the bullpen)
Mike Williams
Eddie Guardado
Mark Davis
Joe Nathan
Jose Jimenez
Mike Jackson
Derrick Turnbow
BrutusKhan
That being said, Park & Dreifort are guys whose limited success, turned into fat contracts because of a couple of desperate GM's. Toronto is desperate, but these guys aren't junk.
On Lynwth's list above, Turnbow throws a 100, and did a legit job last year, and Eckersly was a drunk when he was a SP, sobered up, and was a god in the pen. He wasn't just a little good. Nobody can put up those numbers, starter, reliever, whatever. The rest of the list is quite legitimate, and actually missing Hermanson & Dempster.
Toronto is overpaying because a) their country taxes players higher than US , b) players are moving to a foreign country to play for them c) they stunk the last several seasons & d) they want to build a winner quickly, something nobody can do(see the Mets, Dodgers, & Orioles)
Doug
December 09, 2005 at 10:27PM View BBCode
Well, I will say that Burnett does something most guys can't- Hits 100 MPH on the radar gun even into the the 9th inning on some games last year. Guys who can dunk from the free throw line & show any sign of being able to shoot, get a lot of extra money also.That being said, Park & Dreifort are guys whose limited success, turned into fat contracts because of a couple of desperate GM's. Toronto is desperate, but these guys aren't junk.
On Lynwth's list above, Turnbow throws a 100, and did a legit job last year, and Eckersly was a drunk when he was a SP, sobered up, and was a god in the pen. He wasn't just a little good. Nobody can put up those numbers, starter, reliever, whatever. The rest of the list is quite legitimate, and actually missing Hermanson & Dempster.
Toronto is overpaying because a) their country taxes players higher than US , b) players are moving to a foreign country to play for them c) they stunk the last several seasons & d) they want to build a winner quickly, something nobody can do(see the Mets, Dodgers, & Orioles)
Doug
rkinslow19
HAHHAHA great post.
Turnbow is a junkball pitcher....that velocity was before he was suspended for juicing correct? According to ESPN, he was topping out at 98, before getting busted:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1701535
December 11, 2005 at 01:48PM View BBCode
Originally posted by BrutusKhan
On Lynwth's list above, Turnbow throws a 100, and did a legit job last year, and Eckersly was a drunk when he was a SP, sobered up, and was a god in the pen.
HAHHAHA great post.
Turnbow is a junkball pitcher....that velocity was before he was suspended for juicing correct? According to ESPN, he was topping out at 98, before getting busted:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1701535
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