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barterer2002
Here's our previous entries
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=262823&page=1]2010 Preview[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=222247&page=1]2009 picks[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=179933&page=1]2008 predictions[/url]
1. Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn. This is not a good pick. It's a case where a team thinks it needs to take a QB and so forces one into that slot even though the player isn't worth it. Newton has a wealth of physical tools but combines it with a staggering immaturity and lack of accountability. I expect him to rank with Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell more than anyone else.
2. Broncos [color=blue] Marcell Dareus DT Alabama[/color] Potentially the Panthers pick (and a better one than Newton) assuming he slips the Broncos and John Fox will snap him up. A physical freak who weighs 319 lbs and still ran a 4.92 at the combine. [color=blue]drafted 3 by Buffalo[/color]
3. Bills [color=red] Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri. [/color] He's a bit of a project but with some solid skills. He needs to improve on his 3rd down conversions (44%) and has little experience over center. He should not start right away, using more of a Aaron Rodgers program where he sits for a few years before taking over the starting position (harder to do on a bad team I know). As with Newton, he's a bit overdrafted as the club tries to fill the QB need rather than taking the player that deserves to be taken this high [color=red] drafted 10 by Jacksonville[/color]
4. Bengals. AJ Green WR Georgia. He's more of a possession type of receiver who has terrific hands but not great speed (4.50). If either Gabbert or Newton falls here the Bengals will pounce but with both of them gone the club will grab Green and try to bring in a veteran QB (Kevin Kolb/Donovan McNabb)
5. Cardinals. [color=green] Von Miller OLB Texas A&M[/color]. None of the remaining QBs is worth a top 5 pick (even if we assume that the other two are) and so the Cardinals will have to look elsewhere for their signal caller. Instead they'll grab Miller who is a pass rushing 3/4 linebacker. He is a distinct possibility to be the defensive rookie of the year. [color=green]drafted 2 by Denver[/color]
6. Browns. [color=blue]Patrick Peterson CB LSU. [/color]He's number one on Mel Kiper's board and projects to be the shut down CB in the Reevis mold. He's a great pick for the Browns here at number 6. He also serves as a return man but that's not where he's going to make his NFL mark. If he returns kicks he'll only do it for one or two years as his value as a shut down corner will outstrip any gains in the kicking game. [color=blue]drafted 5 by Cardinals[/color]
7. 49ers. [color=red]Robert Quinn DE North Carolina.[/color] One of the TarHeels who missed the 2010 season after being suspended. He had a great junior year and impressed at the combine and again at North Carolina's pro day. The consensus among scouts is that there is no way he gets out of the top 10, he's just too good. He's a terrific pass rusher, a position that the 49ers need some significant help at and this is his spot. [color=red] drafted 14 by St Louis[/color]
8. Titans. [color=green] Nick Fairley DT Auburn. [/color] Fairley will give the Titans someone to pair with Jason Jones. There are concerns that he's a one year wonder but he's going to go in the top 10. There is some concern that the Titans may reach for a QB like Jake Locker here but its way way too early for any of the remaining QBs [color=green] drafted 13 by the Lions[/color]
9. Cowboys. Tyrone Smith OT USC. The Cowboys are going to have to improve the offensive line to protect Tony Romo if they want to have any chance of competing this year. Smith is the best lineman available and will allow the 'boys to take Marc Columbo out of the starting lineup.
10. Redskins. [color=green]Julio Jones WR Alabama.[/color] There is some debate whether Jones or AJ Green is the better WR prospect in this draft. Jones is faster while Green has the better hands. With Green off the board at this point however, the Redskins are thrilled to be able to grab Jones to replace Santana Moss. [color=green] drafted 6 by the Falcons (trade)[/color]
11. Texans. [color=green] Aldon Smith DE Missouri[/color] There is little doubt that the Texans will be drafting for defense here. There is some idea that they will take Prince Amukamara in this slot but there is some concern within the Houston organization about taking CBs two years in a row so the team will be more likely to take someone to shore up the front seven. Smith can get double digits in sacks from the end position which should make it easier on whomever is playing in the defensive backfield. [color=green]picked 7 by 49ers[/color]
12. Vikings [color=red] Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.[/color] One of the QBs is a possibility as the Viks clearly need one but we're looking at Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett and its really a bit early for one of them. Amukamara fills a defensive need and is good value at the 12 pick (he could go as early as 7).[color=red]drafted 19 by the New York Giants[/color]
13. Lions. [color=red]Cameron Jordan DE California.[/color] The Lions are going to take the best player available (and that won't be a WR this year). They'd be thrilled if Amukamara fell to them at 13 but that's unlikely. He's the son of former 13 year vet Steve Jordan (TE MIN). [color=red]drafted 24 by New Orleans[/color]
14. Rams. [color=green]Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois[/color]. A WR is a possibility and if Jones fell here he's the pick but he won't and so the Rams shore up the defense with Liuget who can play immediately. [color=green]drafted 18 by San Diego[/color]
15. Dolphins. Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida Mark Ingram is a possibility here since both Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams are free agents this year and many project Ingram into this slot but there are concerns about his arthritis (knee) and the Dolphins would really love to trade down to add a second round pick (which they don't have) if they can find a partner. If not, Pouncey will be the pick.
16. Jaguars. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. Most agree that the Jags are going to go with a defensive player here and really could use a pass rusher. Kerrigan is the type of player the Jags love to draft (4 year player, 3 year starter). He led the Division I with 26 tackles for loss last year. drafted by Redskins after trade
17. Patriots. [color=green]Anthony Castonzo[/color], OT, Boston College. The Patriots draft Castonzo as Matt Light's replacement. I've seen JJ Watt projected here but there are issues between Big Bill and Watt's agent. They'd love to grab Jordan here but with the Lions grabbing him at 13 they'll settle for Castonzo. [color=green]drafted 22 by Indianapolis[/color]
18. Chargers.[color=red] J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin[/color]. The team needs to get younger on the defensive line and Watt does that for them. He slips a little as teams see him as somewhat between a DE and DT but he should be fine in the Chargers system [color=red] drafted 11 by Texans[/color]
19. Giants. [color=red] Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.[/color] The Giants may move up ahead of the Patriots to grab Castronzo (who like Tom Coughlin has BC ties) but if they hold their position here they're likely to shore up the O line with Carimi as a future LT.[color=red] drafted 29 by Chicago[/red]
20. Bucanneers. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. He's dropped almost out of the first round after once appearing in the top 5 on some boards. A miserable pro day and health concerns in his knees have dropped him until he's almost out of the first round. He can however be dominant if he's recovered from his January surgery to repair his lateral meniscus in his right knee.
21. Chiefs. [color=green] Nate Solder, OT, Colorado[/color]. He's an all American who has a little learning to do as he tends to stand too high and is beatable with a bull rush. If he drops down a little more he'll be a top offensive tackle and a great pick in this slot. [color=green]drafted by Patriots at 17[/color]
22. Colts. [color=red] Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State.[/color] It was a little painful to watch Peyton Manning get slaughtered last year behind the sieve of an offensive line and the club must address it early and often this off season. There have been several drafted already (Smith, Castonzo, Carimi, and Solder) but the Colts will take the best one left at this point in the draft. [color=red]drafted 32 by Green Bay[/color]
23. Eagles. [color=green] Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. [/color] The club needs help in a defensive backfield that was exposed last year. Don't be surprised to see the club climb signifcantly to grab Prince Amukamara but if they don't they'll grab Smith with this pick. [color=green] drafted 26 by Baltimore[/color]
24. Saints. [color=green]Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple. [/color] They're looking hard at any potential defensive lineman here, both ends and tackles are in the mix for the Saints. Wilkerson becomes the big body in the middle and stuffs the run for the saints going forward.[color=green] drafted 29 by New York Jets[/color]
25. Seahawks. [color=red] Jake Locker QB Washington. [/color] Locker becomes the QB of the future witch may come sooner rather than later as Hasselback departs as a free agent. [color=red] drafted 8 by the Titans[/color]
26. Ravens. [color=green] Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State. [/color] The Ravens aren't sure that Heyward will make it here and the Saints will consider them at 24 but if Heyward is here the Ravens will take him. [color=green]drafted 31 by Pittsburgh[/color]
27. Falcons. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame. Tony Gonzalez is on his last legs and the Falcons will grab the top TE if he's available at this point. Rudolph is coming off an October injury which has caused him to drop to the bottom of the round but he'll be well worth the pick at this point.
28. Patriots. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama. The club may trade down so some team can draft a QB but if they stay pick its likely that the former Heismann will be the pick drafted by the Saints
29. Bears. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina The bears would love to upgrade the O-line but with the top 5 offensive tackles already gone they'll wait til Round 2 for that and go defense here. They might reach for Penn State's Steve Wisniewski but he's a little bit of a stretch here. They'd be better off with Austin or trading down a few slots.
30. Jets. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA. A playmaker with a nose for the ball, Ayers will fit well into Ryan's defense which always finds a way to get great players onto the field.
31. Steelers. Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas. Williams has good size and speed but may be better fit as a zone CB or FS than a straight up man to man defender.
32. Packers. Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona the Packers try to provide an upgrade opposite of Clay Mathews allowing the two of them to flourish.
Not projected in the first round
[color=red]QB Christian Ponder drafted by Vikings at 12[/color]
[color=red] DE Adrian Clayburn drafted by Buccaneers at 20[/color]
[color=red] NT Phil Taylor drafted by Browns at 21[/color]
[color=red] G Danny Watkins drafted by Eagles at 23[/color]
[color=red] G James Carpenter drafted by Seahawks at 25[/color]
[color=red] WR James Baldwin drafted by Chiefs at 26[/color]
[Edited on 4-29-2011 by barterer2002]
Bart's Annual NFL Draft preview
April 26, 2011 at 01:30AM View BBCode
Its that time again.Here's our previous entries
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=262823&page=1]2010 Preview[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=222247&page=1]2009 picks[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=179933&page=1]2008 predictions[/url]
1. Panthers Cam Newton QB Auburn. This is not a good pick. It's a case where a team thinks it needs to take a QB and so forces one into that slot even though the player isn't worth it. Newton has a wealth of physical tools but combines it with a staggering immaturity and lack of accountability. I expect him to rank with Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell more than anyone else.
2. Broncos [color=blue] Marcell Dareus DT Alabama[/color] Potentially the Panthers pick (and a better one than Newton) assuming he slips the Broncos and John Fox will snap him up. A physical freak who weighs 319 lbs and still ran a 4.92 at the combine. [color=blue]drafted 3 by Buffalo[/color]
3. Bills [color=red] Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri. [/color] He's a bit of a project but with some solid skills. He needs to improve on his 3rd down conversions (44%) and has little experience over center. He should not start right away, using more of a Aaron Rodgers program where he sits for a few years before taking over the starting position (harder to do on a bad team I know). As with Newton, he's a bit overdrafted as the club tries to fill the QB need rather than taking the player that deserves to be taken this high [color=red] drafted 10 by Jacksonville[/color]
4. Bengals. AJ Green WR Georgia. He's more of a possession type of receiver who has terrific hands but not great speed (4.50). If either Gabbert or Newton falls here the Bengals will pounce but with both of them gone the club will grab Green and try to bring in a veteran QB (Kevin Kolb/Donovan McNabb)
5. Cardinals. [color=green] Von Miller OLB Texas A&M[/color]. None of the remaining QBs is worth a top 5 pick (even if we assume that the other two are) and so the Cardinals will have to look elsewhere for their signal caller. Instead they'll grab Miller who is a pass rushing 3/4 linebacker. He is a distinct possibility to be the defensive rookie of the year. [color=green]drafted 2 by Denver[/color]
6. Browns. [color=blue]Patrick Peterson CB LSU. [/color]He's number one on Mel Kiper's board and projects to be the shut down CB in the Reevis mold. He's a great pick for the Browns here at number 6. He also serves as a return man but that's not where he's going to make his NFL mark. If he returns kicks he'll only do it for one or two years as his value as a shut down corner will outstrip any gains in the kicking game. [color=blue]drafted 5 by Cardinals[/color]
7. 49ers. [color=red]Robert Quinn DE North Carolina.[/color] One of the TarHeels who missed the 2010 season after being suspended. He had a great junior year and impressed at the combine and again at North Carolina's pro day. The consensus among scouts is that there is no way he gets out of the top 10, he's just too good. He's a terrific pass rusher, a position that the 49ers need some significant help at and this is his spot. [color=red] drafted 14 by St Louis[/color]
8. Titans. [color=green] Nick Fairley DT Auburn. [/color] Fairley will give the Titans someone to pair with Jason Jones. There are concerns that he's a one year wonder but he's going to go in the top 10. There is some concern that the Titans may reach for a QB like Jake Locker here but its way way too early for any of the remaining QBs [color=green] drafted 13 by the Lions[/color]
9. Cowboys. Tyrone Smith OT USC. The Cowboys are going to have to improve the offensive line to protect Tony Romo if they want to have any chance of competing this year. Smith is the best lineman available and will allow the 'boys to take Marc Columbo out of the starting lineup.
10. Redskins. [color=green]Julio Jones WR Alabama.[/color] There is some debate whether Jones or AJ Green is the better WR prospect in this draft. Jones is faster while Green has the better hands. With Green off the board at this point however, the Redskins are thrilled to be able to grab Jones to replace Santana Moss. [color=green] drafted 6 by the Falcons (trade)[/color]
11. Texans. [color=green] Aldon Smith DE Missouri[/color] There is little doubt that the Texans will be drafting for defense here. There is some idea that they will take Prince Amukamara in this slot but there is some concern within the Houston organization about taking CBs two years in a row so the team will be more likely to take someone to shore up the front seven. Smith can get double digits in sacks from the end position which should make it easier on whomever is playing in the defensive backfield. [color=green]picked 7 by 49ers[/color]
12. Vikings [color=red] Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.[/color] One of the QBs is a possibility as the Viks clearly need one but we're looking at Jake Locker or Ryan Mallett and its really a bit early for one of them. Amukamara fills a defensive need and is good value at the 12 pick (he could go as early as 7).[color=red]drafted 19 by the New York Giants[/color]
13. Lions. [color=red]Cameron Jordan DE California.[/color] The Lions are going to take the best player available (and that won't be a WR this year). They'd be thrilled if Amukamara fell to them at 13 but that's unlikely. He's the son of former 13 year vet Steve Jordan (TE MIN). [color=red]drafted 24 by New Orleans[/color]
14. Rams. [color=green]Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois[/color]. A WR is a possibility and if Jones fell here he's the pick but he won't and so the Rams shore up the defense with Liuget who can play immediately. [color=green]drafted 18 by San Diego[/color]
15. Dolphins. Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida Mark Ingram is a possibility here since both Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams are free agents this year and many project Ingram into this slot but there are concerns about his arthritis (knee) and the Dolphins would really love to trade down to add a second round pick (which they don't have) if they can find a partner. If not, Pouncey will be the pick.
16. Jaguars. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. Most agree that the Jags are going to go with a defensive player here and really could use a pass rusher. Kerrigan is the type of player the Jags love to draft (4 year player, 3 year starter). He led the Division I with 26 tackles for loss last year. drafted by Redskins after trade
17. Patriots. [color=green]Anthony Castonzo[/color], OT, Boston College. The Patriots draft Castonzo as Matt Light's replacement. I've seen JJ Watt projected here but there are issues between Big Bill and Watt's agent. They'd love to grab Jordan here but with the Lions grabbing him at 13 they'll settle for Castonzo. [color=green]drafted 22 by Indianapolis[/color]
18. Chargers.[color=red] J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin[/color]. The team needs to get younger on the defensive line and Watt does that for them. He slips a little as teams see him as somewhat between a DE and DT but he should be fine in the Chargers system [color=red] drafted 11 by Texans[/color]
19. Giants. [color=red] Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.[/color] The Giants may move up ahead of the Patriots to grab Castronzo (who like Tom Coughlin has BC ties) but if they hold their position here they're likely to shore up the O line with Carimi as a future LT.[color=red] drafted 29 by Chicago[/red]
20. Bucanneers. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. He's dropped almost out of the first round after once appearing in the top 5 on some boards. A miserable pro day and health concerns in his knees have dropped him until he's almost out of the first round. He can however be dominant if he's recovered from his January surgery to repair his lateral meniscus in his right knee.
21. Chiefs. [color=green] Nate Solder, OT, Colorado[/color]. He's an all American who has a little learning to do as he tends to stand too high and is beatable with a bull rush. If he drops down a little more he'll be a top offensive tackle and a great pick in this slot. [color=green]drafted by Patriots at 17[/color]
22. Colts. [color=red] Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State.[/color] It was a little painful to watch Peyton Manning get slaughtered last year behind the sieve of an offensive line and the club must address it early and often this off season. There have been several drafted already (Smith, Castonzo, Carimi, and Solder) but the Colts will take the best one left at this point in the draft. [color=red]drafted 32 by Green Bay[/color]
23. Eagles. [color=green] Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. [/color] The club needs help in a defensive backfield that was exposed last year. Don't be surprised to see the club climb signifcantly to grab Prince Amukamara but if they don't they'll grab Smith with this pick. [color=green] drafted 26 by Baltimore[/color]
24. Saints. [color=green]Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple. [/color] They're looking hard at any potential defensive lineman here, both ends and tackles are in the mix for the Saints. Wilkerson becomes the big body in the middle and stuffs the run for the saints going forward.[color=green] drafted 29 by New York Jets[/color]
25. Seahawks. [color=red] Jake Locker QB Washington. [/color] Locker becomes the QB of the future witch may come sooner rather than later as Hasselback departs as a free agent. [color=red] drafted 8 by the Titans[/color]
26. Ravens. [color=green] Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State. [/color] The Ravens aren't sure that Heyward will make it here and the Saints will consider them at 24 but if Heyward is here the Ravens will take him. [color=green]drafted 31 by Pittsburgh[/color]
27. Falcons. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame. Tony Gonzalez is on his last legs and the Falcons will grab the top TE if he's available at this point. Rudolph is coming off an October injury which has caused him to drop to the bottom of the round but he'll be well worth the pick at this point.
28. Patriots. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama. The club may trade down so some team can draft a QB but if they stay pick its likely that the former Heismann will be the pick drafted by the Saints
29. Bears. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina The bears would love to upgrade the O-line but with the top 5 offensive tackles already gone they'll wait til Round 2 for that and go defense here. They might reach for Penn State's Steve Wisniewski but he's a little bit of a stretch here. They'd be better off with Austin or trading down a few slots.
30. Jets. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA. A playmaker with a nose for the ball, Ayers will fit well into Ryan's defense which always finds a way to get great players onto the field.
31. Steelers. Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas. Williams has good size and speed but may be better fit as a zone CB or FS than a straight up man to man defender.
32. Packers. Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona the Packers try to provide an upgrade opposite of Clay Mathews allowing the two of them to flourish.
Not projected in the first round
[color=red]QB Christian Ponder drafted by Vikings at 12[/color]
[color=red] DE Adrian Clayburn drafted by Buccaneers at 20[/color]
[color=red] NT Phil Taylor drafted by Browns at 21[/color]
[color=red] G Danny Watkins drafted by Eagles at 23[/color]
[color=red] G James Carpenter drafted by Seahawks at 25[/color]
[color=red] WR James Baldwin drafted by Chiefs at 26[/color]
[Edited on 4-29-2011 by barterer2002]
dirtdevil
April 26, 2011 at 12:17PM View BBCode
i always enjoy these bart. i do have to say that i still like locker better than any of the more recently hyped qb's in this draft. i wonder if he regrets not coming out last year.
tm4559
(shouldn't they want a lineman? couldn't one of those guys slip? are they not the significant awesome? is the shanahan thing stuck on a wide receiver? these are questions and i would like answers.)
April 26, 2011 at 03:50PM View BBCode
the redskins don't want a lineman why?(shouldn't they want a lineman? couldn't one of those guys slip? are they not the significant awesome? is the shanahan thing stuck on a wide receiver? these are questions and i would like answers.)
barterer2002
1995 no 1st round pick
1996 John Mobley LB
1997 Trevor Pryce DT
1998 Marcus Nash WR
1999 Al Wilson LB
2000 Deltha O'Neal DB
2001 Willie Middlebrooks DB
2002 Ashley Lelie WR
2003 George Foster T
2004 D.J. Williams LB
2005 no 1st round pick
2006 Jay Cutler QB
2007 Jarvis Moss DE
2008 Ryan Clady T
In general though Shanahan's system uses smaller o-linemen than other squads and he doesn't need to take them in the first year and so with other needs pressing, and after having taken a tackle in Trent Williams with the number 4 last year Shanahan is unlikely to spend another high pick on the O-line. It just isn't one of the areas he values as much.
April 26, 2011 at 05:57PM View BBCode
Shanahan's track record isn't as successful with O-linemen. With the broncos he drafted the following in Round 11995 no 1st round pick
1996 John Mobley LB
1997 Trevor Pryce DT
1998 Marcus Nash WR
1999 Al Wilson LB
2000 Deltha O'Neal DB
2001 Willie Middlebrooks DB
2002 Ashley Lelie WR
2003 George Foster T
2004 D.J. Williams LB
2005 no 1st round pick
2006 Jay Cutler QB
2007 Jarvis Moss DE
2008 Ryan Clady T
In general though Shanahan's system uses smaller o-linemen than other squads and he doesn't need to take them in the first year and so with other needs pressing, and after having taken a tackle in Trent Williams with the number 4 last year Shanahan is unlikely to spend another high pick on the O-line. It just isn't one of the areas he values as much.
tworoosters
I also don't think Locker's going to be there at #25, though I could be wrong, I just have a feeling that Tennessee, Minnesota or New England will take him.
I also think that if both Quinn and Jones are gone at #10 then Washington may take Locker .
April 26, 2011 at 06:31PM View BBCode
If Jones is there at #10 the Redskins will jump on him, unless for some reason Quinn falls to #10 which I've seen prognosticated in a few places .I also don't think Locker's going to be there at #25, though I could be wrong, I just have a feeling that Tennessee, Minnesota or New England will take him.
I also think that if both Quinn and Jones are gone at #10 then Washington may take Locker .
barterer2002
Here are the first Round QB picks in the past 30 years (along with some selected later picks (* indicates most yards passing from that year's picks)
2010 Sam Bradford*
2010 Tim Tebow
2009 Matthew Stafford
2009 Mark Sanchez*
2009 Josh Freeman
2008 Matt Ryan
2008 Joe Flacco*
2007 Jamarcus Russell
2007 Brady Quinn
2006 Vince Young
2006 Matt Leinert
2006 Jay Cutler*
2005 Alex Smith
2005 Aaron Rodgers
2005 Jason Campbell*
2004 Eli Manning*
2004 Philip Rivers
2004 Ben Roethlisberger
2003 Carson Palmer*
2003 Byron Leftwich
2003 Kyle Boller
2003 Rex Grossman
2002 David Carr
2002 Joey Harrington
2002 Patrick Ramsey
2001 Michael Vick
2001 Drew Brees*
2000 Chad Pennington
1999 Tim Couch
1999 Donovan McNabb*
1999 Akili Smith
1999 Dante Culpepper
1999 Cade McNown
1998 Peyton Manning *
1998 Ryan Leaf
1997 Jim Druckenmiller
1995 Steve McNair
1995 Kerry Collins *
1994 Heath Schuler
1994 Trent Dilfer
1993 Drew Bledsoe*
1993 Rick Mirer
1992 David Klinger
1992 Tommy Maddox
1991 Dan McGwire
1991 Todd Maranivich
1990 Jeff George*
1990 Andre Ware
1989 Troy Aikman*
1987 Vinny Testaverde*
1987 Kelly Stouffer
1987 Chris Miller
1987 Jim Harbaugh
1986 Jim Everett*
1986 Chuck Long
1983 John Elway
1983 Todd Blackledge
1983 Jim Kelly
1983 Tony Eason
1983 Ken O'Brien
1983 Dan Marino*
1982 Art Schlichter
1982 Jim McMahon*
1981 Rich Campbell
1980 Marc Wilson
1980 Mark Malone
(66 1st round QBs. 4 HOF (5 if you want to count Peyton).
2007 Trent Edwards * (Round 3)
2005 Kyle Orton (Round 5)
2004 Matt Schaub (Round 3)
2002 David Garrard * (Round 4)
2000 Marc Bulger (Round 6)
2000 Tom Brady * (Round 6)
1999 Aaron Brooks (Round 4)
1998 Charlie Batch (Round 2)
1998 Brian Griese (Round 3)
1998 Matt Hasselback (Round 6)
1997 Jake Plummer *(Round 2)
1996 Tony Banks * (Round 2)
1995 Kordell Stewert (Round 2)
1994 Gus Frerotte* (Round 7)
1993 Mark Brunell (ROund 5)
1993 Elvis Grbec (Round 8)
1993 Trent Green (Round 8)
1992 Jeff Blake (Round 6)
1992 Brad Johnson* (Round 9)
1991 Bret Favre* (Round 2)
1990 Neal O'Donnell (Round 3)
1990 Scott Mitchell (Round 4)
1989 Billy Joe Tolliver (Round 2)
1989 Rodney Peete (ROund 6)
1988 Chris Chandler* (Round 3)
1988 Stan Humphries (Round 6)
1987 Rich Gannon (Round 4)
1987 Steve Beuerlein (Round 4)
1987 Don Majkowski (Round 10)
1986 Jack Trudeau (Round 2)
1986 Bubby Brister (Round 3)
1986 Mark Rypien (Round 6)
1985 Randall Cunningham* (Round 2)
1985 Steve Bono (Round 6)
1985 Doug Flutie (Round 11)
1984 Boomer Esiason* (Round 2)
1984 Jeff Hostetler (Round 3)
1984 Jay Schroeder (Round 3)
1981 Neil Lomax* (Round 2)
1981 Wade Wilson (Round 8)
1980 Eric Hipple (Round 4)
(41 QBs in Rounds 2+ with 10K passing yards).
It isn't to say that you don't find a higher percentage of top QBs in Round 1 but rather when you draft a guy in Round 1 A), you have to play him and can't develop him (except in rare Aaron Rodgers type situations) and B). When they bust you will draft high again for several years.
April 26, 2011 at 07:29PM View BBCode
QBs are kind of the wild card in this draft. I really don't think that any of them SHOULD be taken in the first round. This year reminds me more of 1984 when the first QB taken was Boomer Esiason in Round 2. Teams have gotten so QB happy in their drafts that they force feed them.Here are the first Round QB picks in the past 30 years (along with some selected later picks (* indicates most yards passing from that year's picks)
2010 Sam Bradford*
2010 Tim Tebow
2009 Matthew Stafford
2009 Mark Sanchez*
2009 Josh Freeman
2008 Matt Ryan
2008 Joe Flacco*
2007 Jamarcus Russell
2007 Brady Quinn
2006 Vince Young
2006 Matt Leinert
2006 Jay Cutler*
2005 Alex Smith
2005 Aaron Rodgers
2005 Jason Campbell*
2004 Eli Manning*
2004 Philip Rivers
2004 Ben Roethlisberger
2003 Carson Palmer*
2003 Byron Leftwich
2003 Kyle Boller
2003 Rex Grossman
2002 David Carr
2002 Joey Harrington
2002 Patrick Ramsey
2001 Michael Vick
2001 Drew Brees*
2000 Chad Pennington
1999 Tim Couch
1999 Donovan McNabb*
1999 Akili Smith
1999 Dante Culpepper
1999 Cade McNown
1998 Peyton Manning *
1998 Ryan Leaf
1997 Jim Druckenmiller
1995 Steve McNair
1995 Kerry Collins *
1994 Heath Schuler
1994 Trent Dilfer
1993 Drew Bledsoe*
1993 Rick Mirer
1992 David Klinger
1992 Tommy Maddox
1991 Dan McGwire
1991 Todd Maranivich
1990 Jeff George*
1990 Andre Ware
1989 Troy Aikman*
1987 Vinny Testaverde*
1987 Kelly Stouffer
1987 Chris Miller
1987 Jim Harbaugh
1986 Jim Everett*
1986 Chuck Long
1983 John Elway
1983 Todd Blackledge
1983 Jim Kelly
1983 Tony Eason
1983 Ken O'Brien
1983 Dan Marino*
1982 Art Schlichter
1982 Jim McMahon*
1981 Rich Campbell
1980 Marc Wilson
1980 Mark Malone
(66 1st round QBs. 4 HOF (5 if you want to count Peyton).
2007 Trent Edwards * (Round 3)
2005 Kyle Orton (Round 5)
2004 Matt Schaub (Round 3)
2002 David Garrard * (Round 4)
2000 Marc Bulger (Round 6)
2000 Tom Brady * (Round 6)
1999 Aaron Brooks (Round 4)
1998 Charlie Batch (Round 2)
1998 Brian Griese (Round 3)
1998 Matt Hasselback (Round 6)
1997 Jake Plummer *(Round 2)
1996 Tony Banks * (Round 2)
1995 Kordell Stewert (Round 2)
1994 Gus Frerotte* (Round 7)
1993 Mark Brunell (ROund 5)
1993 Elvis Grbec (Round 8)
1993 Trent Green (Round 8)
1992 Jeff Blake (Round 6)
1992 Brad Johnson* (Round 9)
1991 Bret Favre* (Round 2)
1990 Neal O'Donnell (Round 3)
1990 Scott Mitchell (Round 4)
1989 Billy Joe Tolliver (Round 2)
1989 Rodney Peete (ROund 6)
1988 Chris Chandler* (Round 3)
1988 Stan Humphries (Round 6)
1987 Rich Gannon (Round 4)
1987 Steve Beuerlein (Round 4)
1987 Don Majkowski (Round 10)
1986 Jack Trudeau (Round 2)
1986 Bubby Brister (Round 3)
1986 Mark Rypien (Round 6)
1985 Randall Cunningham* (Round 2)
1985 Steve Bono (Round 6)
1985 Doug Flutie (Round 11)
1984 Boomer Esiason* (Round 2)
1984 Jeff Hostetler (Round 3)
1984 Jay Schroeder (Round 3)
1981 Neil Lomax* (Round 2)
1981 Wade Wilson (Round 8)
1980 Eric Hipple (Round 4)
(41 QBs in Rounds 2+ with 10K passing yards).
It isn't to say that you don't find a higher percentage of top QBs in Round 1 but rather when you draft a guy in Round 1 A), you have to play him and can't develop him (except in rare Aaron Rodgers type situations) and B). When they bust you will draft high again for several years.
tm4559
April 26, 2011 at 07:41PM View BBCode
i think the redskins should disband their football team.
barterer2002
I think they'll take Prince Amukamara in that situation.
April 27, 2011 at 12:43AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
I also think that if both Quinn and Jones are gone at #10 then Washington may take Locker .
I think they'll take Prince Amukamara in that situation.
tworoosters
April 27, 2011 at 02:04AM View BBCode
I think Dallas will take Amukamara at #9, I really should do my own mock just to embarrass myself .
barterer2002
April 27, 2011 at 05:56PM View BBCode
See I think Dallas has to go O line in this one, especially if Smith is up there. If he isn't, I think they'll look to trade down to 12-15 range and pick up Pouncey or Castonzo
barterer2002
April 28, 2011 at 09:35PM View BBCode
2 and a half hours to go. I would make a few changes at this point but am tired so must nap a bit first
barterer2002
April 29, 2011 at 12:07AM View BBCode
Now I've got the Brocs taking Dareus but the latest news is that they're going to take Miller with the Bills grabbing Dareus and Gabbert dropping down to 7 for the Niners.
barterer2002
Cards then will grab Peterson (or trade to someone else who well)
The Browns then may go for Jones or trade down to the Titans?
April 29, 2011 at 12:22AM View formatted
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Bengals will now take Green
Cards then will grab Peterson (or trade to someone else who well)
The Browns then may go for Jones or trade down to the Titans?
barterer2002
April 29, 2011 at 12:41AM View BBCode
OK Gabbert will go 7. Either to the Niners or to a team trading up to get him. (Titans, Redskins, Vikings (although the Redskins probably don't have anything to deal away to move up the 3 slots))
barterer2002
April 29, 2011 at 12:49AM View BBCode
Holy Crap. That's a bit high for Locker. Hopefully it works out for them.
barterer2002
April 29, 2011 at 01:18AM View BBCode
This is horrible. 4 QBs in the first 12 picks? There isn't any of them that deserve to be that high. Stop trying to stuff the position in there.
tworoosters
Plus Atlanta must just love Julio Jones to give up that package, two 1sts, a 2nd and a two 4ths, Jones with Roddy White will be a very, very good WR pairing for Ryan to throw to but that's a huge price to pay.
Detroit getting Fairly at #13 is tremendous value for them and Washington landing Kerrigan and a 2nd for sliding down 6 spots is a good value move for the Redskins, strange to hear those words in a sentence.
New Orleans have to be happy with Jordan and Ingram in the first round.
All in all a very entertaining first round.
April 29, 2011 at 06:28AM View BBCode
Actually I like Locker more than any of the other QBs but I was still surprised to see him go #8, I had him at #12 to Minnesota.Plus Atlanta must just love Julio Jones to give up that package, two 1sts, a 2nd and a two 4ths, Jones with Roddy White will be a very, very good WR pairing for Ryan to throw to but that's a huge price to pay.
Detroit getting Fairly at #13 is tremendous value for them and Washington landing Kerrigan and a 2nd for sliding down 6 spots is a good value move for the Redskins, strange to hear those words in a sentence.
New Orleans have to be happy with Jordan and Ingram in the first round.
All in all a very entertaining first round.
barterer2002
1. Minnesota taking Christian Pondor. It isn't that they don't need a QB but the question of taking him with the 12 pick. They could have moved down significantly, maybe even out of the first round, and still taken Pondor. He's similar in his grading to Ryan Mallett (some teams prefer Mallett and others Pondor) and Mallett didn't go to anyone else. That doesn't say that Pondor wouldn't have gone to a team like Seattle but they could have moved back to 20 or 21 and picked up a later pick and still gotten their guy meaning that the value at 12 was significantly overplayed.
2. Seattle taking James Carpenter. Generally most experts had Carpenter as a late second round pick. With both Carimi and Sherrod still on the board, this pick becomes much more unexplainable.
3. Tennessee for Jake Locker at 8. Most teams had Locker as the number 3 QB on the board and Gabbert was still available. Trading down to a team that wanted a QB would have made sense. Letting Minnesota move up to grab Gabbert would have made sense to both clubs.
4. 49ers for Alden Smith at 7. Smith is solid and was a projected first rounder but more in the 15-20 range. Another team that should have traded down to still get the player they wanted. This is especially the case when there were plenty of DEs generally rated ahead of Smith still on the board (Quinn, Jordan, Watt, Kerrigan, and Bowers). Smith as the first DE off the board is a bit ridiculous.
5. Chiefs for Jon Baldwin at 26. Its an odd pick for a team with a solid offense already. Adding a non-skill position would have been better for this team.
Top 5 best value picks in Round 1
1. Robert Quinn. Rams Slipped a bit after missing the 2010 season but all reports are that he's a good character (missed the year for essentially being a college kid and tweeting about it). Probably would have been a top 5 pick if he'd played in 2010 and getting him at 14 is a steal.
2. Nick Farley Lions. There are concerns that he's a one year wonder but lining up next to Suh is going to make him a beast as a rookie.
3. Prince Amukamara Giants. The number 2 CB in the draft was projected by some to be a top 10 pick and fell into the Giants lap at 19
4. Gabe Carimi Bears. The Offensive linemen were a little mixed on this draft with Taylor and Carpenter being drafted before Carimi. A steal for the Bears here at 29
5. Derek Sherrod Packers. Like Carimi he should have gone before Taylor and Carpenter-problably in the 20-25 range. Good value for the Pack at 32
Top 5 left on the board.
1. Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson. The talent is enough that he was once mentioned as the number one overall pick. The issue is injuries but whoever gets him in the second round is getting a steal.
2. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
3. Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas.
4. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
5. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
April 29, 2011 at 07:49PM View BBCode
OK so here are the top 5 poor picks of Round 1. Note, when looking at this list we're not going to grade how the player will eventually perform, so taking Cam Newton number 1, which I hate, isn't going to make the list because its either grab him there or don't take him. Instead we're looking for the value of the pick so that a guy that you're reaching for that you could have gotten 5, 10 or 20 picks later is what we're going to look at here.1. Minnesota taking Christian Pondor. It isn't that they don't need a QB but the question of taking him with the 12 pick. They could have moved down significantly, maybe even out of the first round, and still taken Pondor. He's similar in his grading to Ryan Mallett (some teams prefer Mallett and others Pondor) and Mallett didn't go to anyone else. That doesn't say that Pondor wouldn't have gone to a team like Seattle but they could have moved back to 20 or 21 and picked up a later pick and still gotten their guy meaning that the value at 12 was significantly overplayed.
2. Seattle taking James Carpenter. Generally most experts had Carpenter as a late second round pick. With both Carimi and Sherrod still on the board, this pick becomes much more unexplainable.
3. Tennessee for Jake Locker at 8. Most teams had Locker as the number 3 QB on the board and Gabbert was still available. Trading down to a team that wanted a QB would have made sense. Letting Minnesota move up to grab Gabbert would have made sense to both clubs.
4. 49ers for Alden Smith at 7. Smith is solid and was a projected first rounder but more in the 15-20 range. Another team that should have traded down to still get the player they wanted. This is especially the case when there were plenty of DEs generally rated ahead of Smith still on the board (Quinn, Jordan, Watt, Kerrigan, and Bowers). Smith as the first DE off the board is a bit ridiculous.
5. Chiefs for Jon Baldwin at 26. Its an odd pick for a team with a solid offense already. Adding a non-skill position would have been better for this team.
Top 5 best value picks in Round 1
1. Robert Quinn. Rams Slipped a bit after missing the 2010 season but all reports are that he's a good character (missed the year for essentially being a college kid and tweeting about it). Probably would have been a top 5 pick if he'd played in 2010 and getting him at 14 is a steal.
2. Nick Farley Lions. There are concerns that he's a one year wonder but lining up next to Suh is going to make him a beast as a rookie.
3. Prince Amukamara Giants. The number 2 CB in the draft was projected by some to be a top 10 pick and fell into the Giants lap at 19
4. Gabe Carimi Bears. The Offensive linemen were a little mixed on this draft with Taylor and Carpenter being drafted before Carimi. A steal for the Bears here at 29
5. Derek Sherrod Packers. Like Carimi he should have gone before Taylor and Carpenter-problably in the 20-25 range. Good value for the Pack at 32
Top 5 left on the board.
1. Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson. The talent is enough that he was once mentioned as the number one overall pick. The issue is injuries but whoever gets him in the second round is getting a steal.
2. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
3. Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas.
4. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
5. Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
cubfan531
May 02, 2011 at 10:48AM View BBCode
Greg McElroy falls to the 7th round. I'm amazed and a bit disgusted (at Bears G.M. Jerry Angelo) at this. He's got a track record of winning (duh!), and the guy's arguably the smartest QB of this draft, with Blaine Gabbert being his only competition. Guys can hit the weight room and work on mechanics to get arm strength/accuracy, but a mind that just misses getting a Rhodes Scholarship is an incredibly rare quality. I know everyone will bring up Ryan Fitzpatrick as a comparison, but, honestly, when you get down to the 5th or 6th round (again, this is mainly a rant against Jerry Angelo), are you really upset with getting another Ryan Fitzpatrick? I mean, after making the fans suffer through Rex Grossman ("oh look! a jersey downfield! don't know who it is but SCREW IT I'M SEXY REXY I'VE GOT THE ARM HERE GOES A BOMB!"), a smart quarterback would be a welcome relief.Pages: 1