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| Poll: MLB Post Season Awards Part One - AL Cy Young. Who will Win | |
|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | 6 |
| David Price | 4 |
| Felix Hernandez | 1 |
| John Lester | 1 |
| Justin Verlander | 0 |
tworoosters
Please vote for who you think will win, then comment below.
If you follow the blogs etc. you will know that all the stat geeks are up in arms over the potential for Felix Hernandez not to win the award that, according to them, only he deserves. The Crown Prince of stat idiot bloggers Craig Calcaterra and his minions have spent the past month berating the BBWA for not understanding "modern baseball analysis" should they not take King Felix and has great numbers.
Personally I'm pretty sure the BBWA, and most sane people, will look at Felix and go "yeah, sweet numbers but you won 13 games for a team that was never under any pressure" . Last year Zach Greinke won for a non contender but Greinke was 16-8 and his ERA was an insane 2.16 plus there were no 20 game winners for Greinke to compete against.
In 2010 CC Sabathia and possibly David Price and John Lester are all 20 game winners and Price and Sabathia have posted their numbers under a lot of pressure . The fact is Hernandez probably should have won in 2009 but I don't think he will this year.
The [url=http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung]Neyer-James Predictor[/url], as of September 30th, has Sabathia with a very slim lead over Price, which is pretty much how I would have it as well. Personally I'd give it to Sabathia because pitching as the ace of an injury riddled staff in the pressure cooker of New York gives him a slight edge over Price.
[Edited on 10-4-2010 by tworoosters]
MLB Post Season Awards Part One - AL Cy Young. Who will Win
September 30, 2010 at 10:10PM View BBCode
Well I might as well start off with a tough one.Please vote for who you think will win, then comment below.
If you follow the blogs etc. you will know that all the stat geeks are up in arms over the potential for Felix Hernandez not to win the award that, according to them, only he deserves. The Crown Prince of stat idiot bloggers Craig Calcaterra and his minions have spent the past month berating the BBWA for not understanding "modern baseball analysis" should they not take King Felix and has great numbers.
Personally I'm pretty sure the BBWA, and most sane people, will look at Felix and go "yeah, sweet numbers but you won 13 games for a team that was never under any pressure" . Last year Zach Greinke won for a non contender but Greinke was 16-8 and his ERA was an insane 2.16 plus there were no 20 game winners for Greinke to compete against.
In 2010 CC Sabathia and possibly David Price and John Lester are all 20 game winners and Price and Sabathia have posted their numbers under a lot of pressure . The fact is Hernandez probably should have won in 2009 but I don't think he will this year.
The [url=http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung]Neyer-James Predictor[/url], as of September 30th, has Sabathia with a very slim lead over Price, which is pretty much how I would have it as well. Personally I'd give it to Sabathia because pitching as the ace of an injury riddled staff in the pressure cooker of New York gives him a slight edge over Price.
[Edited on 10-4-2010 by tworoosters]
jetpac
October 01, 2010 at 01:22AM View BBCode
Well I'd say the fact that Hernandez even got those 13 wins is pretty darn impressive. He's been lights out for the entire season, easily turning in the best performance in the league. Sabathia's been great, don't get me wrong, and as a Yankees fan he's been a huge life saver, but I don't think it's like the other teams weren't trying when they faced Felix. And for the record, I love Craig Calcaterra :P
Hamilton2
If I had a vote, I would be voting for David Price.
I understand the sabermetric argument in favor of Hernandez. Even when you just compare ERA (which is not a great stat, I realize) between Hernandez and Sabathia, Felix has a huge edge (2.27 to 3.18). Price falls right in between these two at 2.73.
In fact, Price is a great compromise selection. His statistical analysis numbers are better than C.C. and his win total and the fact that his team actually mattered this season should be taken into account.
October 01, 2010 at 01:50AM View BBCode
I voted for Sabathia in the poll, because I think that that is who the BBWA will select at the end of the year.If I had a vote, I would be voting for David Price.
I understand the sabermetric argument in favor of Hernandez. Even when you just compare ERA (which is not a great stat, I realize) between Hernandez and Sabathia, Felix has a huge edge (2.27 to 3.18). Price falls right in between these two at 2.73.
In fact, Price is a great compromise selection. His statistical analysis numbers are better than C.C. and his win total and the fact that his team actually mattered this season should be taken into account.
dirtdevil
October 01, 2010 at 02:41AM View BBCode
i think cc will win. if i had a vote, it would probably go to price. i understand that fleix has had a stupendous season, but he plays half his games in a pitcher's park, most of his schedule in a weaker division and hasn't had muich in the way of pressure to face this season. and at the end of the day, although the sabrheads don't like it, the main duty of a starter is to win and he's got 13. that ties him with rickey romero and shaun marcum and leaves him two behind bret cecil. heck, brandon morrow has 10 and he's been shut down since the beginning of sept. if there are 3 guys in the rotation of the toronto blue jays who have as many or more wins than a cy young candidate, i have a hard time suggesting he should win.
barterer2002
October 01, 2010 at 04:10PM View BBCode
its either going to be Price or Sabathia with Hernandez third. The writers have moved a great deal into the sabermetric roles over a pure win based thing over the past few seasons but the large difference in win totals between Price/Sabathia and hernandez is too large to overcome there. Yes Hernandez played on a bad team (one that even can lose the game on a 2 out strikeout with a runner on first) but dominant pitchers on bad teams have been able to win games despite their teams in the past (see Carlton, Steve) I can't see a 13 game winner being the CY over a 20 or 19 game winner who also has good stats even though they played, admitedly on a g
Admin
If the Win statistic didn't exist, and you tried to implement it today as the rule is written, you'd be considered crazy. Can you imagine the looks the Anti-SABR guys would give you if you tried to explain Wins to them, if the stat hadn't existed already? People would laugh at you.
That being said, I went to one AL game this year, and Felix got rocked by the Twins for 3-4 runs in the first inning before settling down. There must have been something wrong with Abe that inning.
It will be interesting to see how the vote shakes out and whether Felix gets some serious consideration - Neyer/James might need to rewrite the formula.
Tyson
October 01, 2010 at 04:17PM View BBCode
I read this a few weeks back from Joe Posnanski, I'm paraphrasing....If the Win statistic didn't exist, and you tried to implement it today as the rule is written, you'd be considered crazy. Can you imagine the looks the Anti-SABR guys would give you if you tried to explain Wins to them, if the stat hadn't existed already? People would laugh at you.
That being said, I went to one AL game this year, and Felix got rocked by the Twins for 3-4 runs in the first inning before settling down. There must have been something wrong with Abe that inning.
It will be interesting to see how the vote shakes out and whether Felix gets some serious consideration - Neyer/James might need to rewrite the formula.
Tyson
vurbil
Have better players on his team, who aren't him and have nothing to do with an individual award?
Yes.
October 03, 2010 at 06:25PM View BBCode
So what more could Felix Hernandez have done to win those games?Have better players on his team, who aren't him and have nothing to do with an individual award?
Yes.
vurbil
However, baseball is a totally different sport. All a pitcher can do to win is pitch well. Baseball is also a sport that is very easy to measure statistically. Felix Hernandez had less wins because his team was worse, period. The Cy Young is an individual award, and Hernandez is clearly better than Sabathia.
October 03, 2010 at 06:32PM View BBCode
You can really make the argument that a QB contributes to wins in ways beyond his stats. Football is an emotional and strategic game. The QB is expected to be a leader. He keeps guys focused, he keeps the team together, he makes sure people are being disciplined in their film study/preparation. He sets an example of not panicking in tough situations, in what is a very physical and emotional sport. That's why you can conceivably make the argument that, say, Brady is a better QB than Manning despite the stats (just an example, let's not go down that road right now).However, baseball is a totally different sport. All a pitcher can do to win is pitch well. Baseball is also a sport that is very easy to measure statistically. Felix Hernandez had less wins because his team was worse, period. The Cy Young is an individual award, and Hernandez is clearly better than Sabathia.
dirtdevil
seattle has won 61 games. hernandez has won 13. the 1972 phillies won 59 games. steve carlton won 27. HE won the cy young.
October 03, 2010 at 08:09PM View BBCode
Originally posted by vurbil
However, baseball is a totally different sport. All a pitcher can do to win is pitch well. Baseball is also a sport that is very easy to measure statistically. Felix Hernandez had less wins because his team was worse, period. The Cy Young is an individual award, and Hernandez is clearly better than Sabathia.
seattle has won 61 games. hernandez has won 13. the 1972 phillies won 59 games. steve carlton won 27. HE won the cy young.
barterer2002
You're confusing the question. The question here is who WILL win, not who should win. They're different and while I'll agree with you that Hernandez had a superior season to Sabathia I also suspect that Sabathia will finish higher in the CY voting than Hernandez.
October 03, 2010 at 09:50PM View BBCode
Originally posted by vurbil
So what more could Felix Hernandez have done to win those games?
Have better players on his team, who aren't him and have nothing to do with an individual award?
Yes.
You're confusing the question. The question here is who WILL win, not who should win. They're different and while I'll agree with you that Hernandez had a superior season to Sabathia I also suspect that Sabathia will finish higher in the CY voting than Hernandez.
tworoosters
That's just so cute and Redsoxy .
October 03, 2010 at 09:58PM View BBCode
Really, somebody voted for John Lester ???That's just so cute and Redsoxy .
bpearly69
October 04, 2010 at 06:19AM View BBCode
Even better it wasn't even me, even though he did have a real good yearPages: 1